Troy vs Louisiana-Monroe, the Real Season Begins
Troy at Louisiana-Monroe
Where: Malone Stadium, Monroe
When: 6:00 pm
TV: ESPN+
Spread: Troy -4.5
The toughest four game stretch of the season hits leg four on Saturday, though it also marks the beginning of the true season.
Troy is heading to Monroe to take on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks in what will be the first conference game for both teams.
At 2-1, each team is hoping to avoid a 2-2 start to what could be a big year for both programs.
This contest features the spread out Warhawk attack against the stellar front seven of Troy. Quarterback Caleb Evans came into the season with some of the highest expectations any Monroe quarterback has ever had.
So far, he’s been mistake prone. Evans has completed just a hair under 60 percent of his throws and has one interception tossed in each game. Still, on the plays he’s responsible for, the Warhawks are averaging over six yards per play.
The ground game has seen an improvement over last year, too. In 2017, Evans and running back Derrick Gore were the primary ball carriers and together averaged just 3.87 yards per carry.
This season, Austin Vaughn has joined the mix and added a new wrinkle to the offense. Vaughn has 130 yards on just 20 carries through three games, giving Monroe’s new three-pronged ground attack a much better 4.69 yards per carry average.
It’s not just the running back group that makes this offense dangerous, though. Monroe has one of the Sun Belt’s top wideout combos in Marcus Green and RJ Turner. The two have caught all five of Evans’ touchdown passes and have 428 receiving yards between the two.
Green is also a dangerous returner. He hasn’t seen much room so far this year but did take four kickoffs to the house last season.
Despite the weapons Monroe has across the offense, points have been hard to come by. Averaging over 400 yards of offense through three games, the Warhawks are scoring just 21.7 points per contest.
Monroe is having to gain 115.94 yards for every six points scored. Compare that to Troy’s 64.66 yards per six points.
The Warhawks have struggled mightily to finish drives. They’re converting on 37.5 percent of their third downs, have scored on just eight of 13 redzone trips and are 3/7 of field goal attempts.
Troy’s defense has been phenomenal in short field situations and that matches up well in this game.
The key for the Trojan defense, though, will be defending the deep ball. Evans throws a pretty one and Green is about as fast as they come. If Troy can continue the adjustments I pointed out here, the Trojans can limit the big play threat the Warhawks have.
On offense, the Trojans need consistent play from the offensive line. If Troy establishes the run early against an improved rush defense, it can take control of the game early.
Prediction
As you could tell from this preview, it’s all about what happens when Caleb Evans and Co. have the football. It could be a tricky one for Troy, too, as Neal Brown preaches silencing the crowd on the road. The Trojans’ are playing in one of the least attended venues in the FBS, it ain’t Lincoln.
Last week, I went against my preseason prediction and was wrong. This week, I’ll do it again. Sound defense paired with an inside-outside ground attack from BJ Smith and Jabir Frye should propel Troy past Monroe. 34-24, Troy