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Introducing the Neal Brown Job Possibility Matrix and SBC Job Tracker

Scott Watkins

It’s that time of year again. Group of Five fans sit in angst throughout December and into January about their head coach being poached by a Power Five program in need of a new direction.

It’s late November and the rusty gears of the 2018-19 coaching carousel have begun grinding as multiple jobs have opened up already. As you can see in our Sun Belt Job Tracker (below), Texas State is the first conference program to ditch its ball coach—and it may not be the last opening this year.

Here at Troy, fans have gone through this cycle twice already and have come away with a collective sigh of relief as Neal Brown has emerged from the smoke with his Troy visor still on each time.

Brown has been uber-successful in his stint at Troy and has been tied to multiple jobs in each of the past offseasons. This year will be no different.

Neal Brown Job Possibility Matrix

At the Trojan Wall, we’ve decided to develop a system to determine which destinations are most likely to draw coach Brown.

Based on a 0-10 scale, the new Matrix uses six total categories to determine which job Brown is most likely to end up at, if he leaves at all.

It’s important to note that Brown leaving is not a guarantee. Also, the jobs listed in our matrix are either open or could come open at any time. The matrix treats all jobs as open.

The following questions are used to determine which jobs are the most likely:

Question 0 if… 1 if… 2 if…
Has he coached or played there? NO n/a YES
Has he coached in the region? NO YES n/a
Has he been tied to the job by media? NO YES n/a
Could he recruit there? NO MAYBE YES
Would the transition be easy? NO MAYBE YES
Is it an upward move? NO MAYBE YES


Questions 1, 2, and 3 are cut and dry. A physical tie to the school means so much that a “YES” for one counts as a “YES” for 2 as well. So, Texas Tech and Kentucky would already have a score of 3.

The response to Question 4 requires a little bit of research. Knowing Brown has been a coordinator in Texas, Kentucky and Alabama, one can pretty much circle the Deep South as a region where he could recruit. Schools in those three states all get a “YES”, and since Florida, Georgia and Louisiana (all top-ten recruiting states) are in the vicinity they get a “YES” too.

Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas and North Carolina get “MAYBES” since he’s brought in recruits from those states and they’re close.

Answering Question 5 means looking at a few factors:

  • The team’s current talent level
  • The team’s current playbook
  • The program’s resources

Blue bloods or schools that are historically blue bloods (Tennessee, Nebraska) automatically get a “MAYBE” due to their resources. In the case of the two examples, they remain “MAYBES” because the talent level at the two schools was burned down by previous coaches.

A big factor is the team’s playbook, too. If Brown was hired by a school with a spread offense, the transition would be much easier than, say, a pro style or even a triple option offense.

Question 6 is a clear answer too. At this point, no Group of Five head coaching job would be an upward move for him. A Power 5 coordinating position would be a lateral move, too, since he was just at Kentucky.

That being said, a high-profile job such as Boise State or Houston would warrant a “MAYBE,” just as it would if Nick Saban came calling.

As an example, let’s look at how well Brown fit Troy back in 2014.

Has he coached or played there? YES 2
Has he coached in the region? YES 1
Has he been tied to the job by media? YES 1
Could he recruit there? YES 2
Would the transition be easy? MAYBE 1
Is it an upward move? YES 2
TOTAL 9

 

He was already a coordinator there, which gave Troy a 3 off the bat. He was tied to the job by many blogs and local sports writers.

Having been a coordinator there and having spent most of his career at Troy, it was clear he had recruiting ties. Coach Blakeney left a lot of talent in the program, but both Troy and Brown’s playbooks had changed since he left.

Finally, a G5 head coaching position is generally the next step for a Power 5 coordinator, unless you’re at a blue blood. The point is, Troy was a perfect fit for Brown.

Back in the present, there aren’t nearly as many jobs that are as good a fit and available.

(Editor’s Note: This sentence was written before Texas Tech fired Kliff Kingsbury.)

Team Texas Tech Kentucky Georgia Tech Colorado Louisville FSU Purdue
Score #1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
Score #2 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
Score #3 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
Score #4 1 1 2 1 2 2 1
Score #5 2 2 1 2 0 1 2
Score #6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total Score 8 8 7 6 6 6 5
In the Market? Yes No No Yes Yes No No

 

Got a team you want run through the Matrix? Tweet at us: @TrojanWallF5. We’ll even save past results so we have a full database.

Job Tracker

First Update- 11/26 1:27 pm

North Carolina job closes after brief Sun Belt speculation that focused heavily on Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield. Instead, Mack Brown has reportedly returned to Chapel Hill.

Apparently, Satterfield was never even contacted.

In San Marcos, it has been reported that Kendall Briles is a “Strong candidate” for the vacant Texas State job and that a hire could come as early as Wednesday.

 

 

Since firing Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech has had the hottest coaching search of every currently vacant job. Several names have come and gone, including Mike Leach. Troy fans may be able to breathe a sigh of relief, though, as it’s already been reported that Neal Brown is not a leading candidate.