The Other Side of the Wall: The Missouri Preview
Missouri Tigers Quick Facts
- 2018 Record: 8-5
- Conference: SEC (since 2012)
- Head coach: Barry Odom (4th season, 22-20)
- 2-1 record against Troy all-time
- Last meeting: 2005, Mizzou W 52-21
- Location: Columbia, MO
Mizzou’s Offense
Players to Watch:
- QB Kelly Bryant
- RB Larry Roundtree III
- RB Tyler Badie
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam
Until Troy can keep an FBS opponent not in the Bottom 25 under 400 passing yards, I’m listing the wide receivers separately.
The Wide Receivers:
- Jalen Knox
- Jonathan Johnson
- Jonathan Nance
So y’all know about Kelly Bryant, right? That one speaks for itself.
He’s averaging 256 passing yards per game. That’s good enough for No. 36 in the country, and he threw for 423 yards against Wyoming… in a loss.
For comparison… the Cowboys are giving up 12 more passing yards per game than Troy. They’re 4-1, but they played Texas State, Idaho, Tulsa and UNLV. The only difference I can see is that Missouri isn’t overlooking Troy.
Let’s move on to the other Tigers weapons. Albert Okwuegbunam* is the team’s leader in receiving touchdowns. He’s averaging 15.7 yards per catch, and the team has scored a touchdown on 11 of its 14 red zone scores. They aren’t afraid to dump it off to Albert O and let him rumble into the end zone, because it works.
Larry Roundtree and Tyler Badie make up the 1.5-headed rushing attack (two if you add in Bryant). Roundtree has about 94 yards per game, Badie adds another 54, and Bryant’s good for 26. The rushing attack is just enough to keep this offense balanced.
In the end, it comes down to Bryant. Cato Nelson wears Bryant’s pajamas. Imagine if Jack Abraham had the ability to pick up the ball and run.
I don’t think Tigers will stay on the ground for long though. Given Troy’s shortcomings, I expect to have another wide receiver section next week.
The Tiger Defense
Players to Watch:
- MLB Cale Garrett
- DT Jordan Elliott
- DT Kobie Whiteside
- LB Nick Bolton
- S Ronnell Perkins
On paper, this is the best defense Troy has faced yet. In reality, Troy is the best offense this Tiger squad has had to deal with.
Cale Garrett is an absolute monster, and no doubt the leader of this squad. He leads in all three tackling categories as well as fumble recoveries, and he even snagged an INT against Southeast Missouri State.
Jordan Elliott and Kobie Whiteside are anchors on this line, and will absolutely test this experienced Troy line. Whiteside has three sacks for loss, only beaten by Elliott’s 3.5 tackles for loss—almost one per game each.
Nick Bolton and Ronnell Perkins share the top spot in picks with two each. Both of Bolton’s picks came against West Virginia, incidentally. Makes me wonder if any of our coaches called Neal for scouting coverage.
Not that it will matter though, Kaleb Barker has thrown the ball 50 more times this year than the Tigers have defended. Barker averages 41 passes a game… Missouri opponents average 29.
This run game is going to get the test of its life, but it will need to crank out at least 100 yards if the offense is going to keep this game close. 150 if they want a shot at winning.
Troy’s passing attack is going toe-to-toe with the toughest secondary yet.
Breakdown
Troy and Missouri have a lot in common superficially. A star dual-threat quarterback, weapons on the air and on the ground, and a defense going against its toughest match yet.
That’s about where these teams begin to split.
Whatever the reason, Troy has a pass defense like a windsock. The only bright side is the five teams worse have a combined 1-0 record against Missouri, and that same team has a worse rushing defense.
Wyoming’s Week 1 upset also featured three turnovers—two fumbles and an interception—that the Cowboys turned into 17 points.
Troy did a good job of that last week, turning three turnovers into an absolute value of 16 points. The safety makes it a total of 12 points for the Trojans.
On the other hand, Mountaineer gunslinger Austin Kendall threw three picks against Mizzou. The Tigers picked up 21 points on those and won 38-7.
They almost live and die by the turnover battle. Even in last week’s game against South Carolina, both teams scored or missed a field goal on every turnover.
The point here is Missouri has the potential, and is more likely to score every time it touches the ball. If Troy wants to complete the Power 5 trilogy, the offense has to outpace the other team.
Conclusion
Let’s not kid ourselves. Missouri has a better defense, and that should be the difference.
If so, Troy needs to eliminate its own mistakes and score on every Tiger turnover.
The Tigers might hang another 400 yards on the Trojans.
If that happens, the Trojans have to put up 500.
This game could be a shootout.
If it is, bear in mind Troy is 0-2 in those so far.
Prediction: 52-38 Missouri