The Other Side of the Wall: Memphis
The Memphis Tigers have never played a football game in Troy, Alabama. That changes Saturday.
Seriously, the last two “home” matches for Troy were Dothan in 1939 and Montgomery in 1940.
Before last year, Troy’s last matchup with Memphis was its first year with Memphis in the name. Up until 1941, the school was known as West Tennessee State Teacher’s College.
This two-game series emphasizes the trajectory of the two schools: one in one of the South’s biggest, most well-known cities and another in one of the smallest FBS cities and one of the country’s poorest counties.
Yet the football programs will meet on the same field tomorrow.
| Opponent | Memphis |
|---|---|
| Time/Network | 11 AM ESPNU |
| Overall Record | 1-5 |
| Last Matchup | L 17-38 (2024) |
| Opponent’s FPI/Difference | 47 (-39) |
| Betting Line | Memphis -6.5 |
Two games is better than one when it comes to breaking down stats, but Chattanooga doesn’t exactly feel like a good measuring stick. That said, having a Sun Belt road game to pull data means something.
The Georgia State game also played out very similarly to Troy’s game against Clemson, the only difference being Troy absolutely handled Clemson in the first half and Memphis went toe-to-toe with the Panthers.
Let’s lay out the four players though, to see where the current stats line up. This isn’t fair but it could give us an idea of tendencies.
| Clemson | Memphis | Troy | Georgia State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense | 75.5 (127) | 219.0 (33) | 175.0 (58) | 120.0 (106) |
| Rushing Defense | 93.0 (40) | 83.5 (30) | 92.5 (36) | 250.0 (131) |
| Passing Offense | 213.0 (76) | 197.5 (85) | 183.5 (100) | 204.5 (80) |
| Passing Defense | 235.5 (96) | 227.0 (91) | 190.0 (62) | 298.0 (125) |
Mathematically, Memphis is a better team than Clemson. Off the bat, I already know this Memphis team is going to run the ball, but I also know Troy’s rush defense is the best Memphis has seen so far.
That’s going to be a key for Troy, just like it was against Clemson. Thing is, Memphis has its run game figured out. It won’t be adapting halfway through the ball game.
The rush defense for both teams is stellar, but Georgia State’s 340 passing yards and 27 rush attempts make it clear that data is skewed. The Beale Street Tigers gave up 118 yards to Chattanooga in week one; that may be an avenue to exploit.
I mentioned last week that Troy’s O-Line could stand up to Clemson, and it did. It has the size to win the trenches, and as stupid and cliche as that sounds, it’s going to be the deciding factor.
In the pass defense game, I’m honestly stunned that Troy is the best of the four. Georgia State held Memphis to 196 yards passing, while the Tigers gave up more than 300 to the Panthers.
The guys at TigerSportsReport (more on them later) analyzed the defensive tape on the Tigers against Georgia State, and noted that pressures and better positioning—both adjustments made in the second half—contributed to the 21-point swing last week.
Georgia State only threw for about 70 yards in the last two quarters. That may be an instance of the Tigers finding their identity, or at least finding something that works.
I’m not saying Troy shouldn’t pass the ball, but I am reminded of the last time Troy tried to attack the other team’s weakness without setting up that attack first. The JMU loss haunts me.
Regardless, Memphis’ pass defense is the biggest question mark. If the weather wasn’t going to be so good, I’d expect a slugfest on the ground.
Then again, two weeks of data only gets us so far. So I asked John from TigerSportsReport to help me understand this Memphis team better.
What song title best describes this season’s expectations?
Pressure by Billy Joel. “But you will come to a place where the only thing you feel are loaded guns in your face and you’ll have to deal with pressure.”
Who would play head coach in a movie about his life?
Hmm.
I’m thinking Mark Forward, the guy who played “Coach” from Letterkenny. Or Nate Bargatze.
What is the best moment for this program in the last 24 years?
Two from 2019: College Gameday and the Cotton Bowl
What game are fans looking forward to most?
This is a two parter- it SHOULD be a big conference game (USF, Tulane)… its probably Arkansas.
The guys up the road in Jonesboro probably felt the same way. I think we might have different outcomes between the two of you though.
What game are fans looking forward to least?
Either this week or FAU– both could be considered “trap” games.
I appreciate the compliment.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Sam Brumfield (LB)- a tireless worker who always seems to be around the ball. DeMarco Ward (LB)- has two pick six INT returns in two games. William Whitlow Jr. (DL)- he is experienced and is exceptionally productive.
That second name is too similar for comfort. Wiregrass folks will recognize Whitlow though, he played at Stanhope Elmore.
When Memphis snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Memphis has a strong running game- so right now its most likely to be a run. It’s so hard to tell who we are this early in the season.
There it is. At least that’s something to prepare for.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
Memphis started slow, turned the ball over and took Troy lightly.
I honestly think Troy only needs one of those things. All three would be a guarantee though.
If we’re in town, where should we go eat?
Central BBQ.
I was waiting for this question. He’s right, it’s the Memphis staple. I’ve got a few recs too though: Blues City Cafe, BBQ Shop, Elwood’s and you can’t go wrong with a Tops burger.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
What has been the biggest progression in Goose Crowder so far this season?
The maturity is so obvious. He was a good quarterback to begin with, but his timing on reads has really picked up. He’s also aware and quick enough to make something out of a busted play. It’s amazing how good coaching can help quarterbacks develop.
So there you have it. It honestly feels like Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan swapped places on Troy’s schedule, where Clemson is supposed to be this hulking run-heavy, fearless team, and Memphis is really good but figuring themselves out.
The good news is, Troy gets the mentality of the beast in a toned-down program. Comparatively.
Troy outperformed my realistic expectations last week, and the line is much closer this week. It’s a single score.
Troy is already 1-0 against the spread, and Memphis is 1-5 ATS in the second matchup of back-to-back series (Thanks, Phil Steele!)
Add a team that’s got the 2016 Troy underdog mentality and a team with playoff expectations, and you have the perfect formula for an upset. If history is any indicator, that just means Troy loses another heartbreaker.
Plus, Troy hasn’t held Memphis under 30 points since 1939. Maybe that’s the history made this week.
Memphis wins, 28-24.
Thanks again to John from TigerSportsReport. You can follow him on Twitter here.