Massachusetts Minutemen at Troy Trojans – Preview, Betting Line, TV, Weather, Sun Belt Champions
UMass (2-7) vs Troy (7-1, 4-0 SBC)
Game time: 3:30 PM EST
Location:Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
TV: ESPN3
Streaming: WatchESPN
Series: First-ever meeting
Weather: Sunny, highs in the mid 70’s
Betting Line: Troy by 21, O/U: 57
This ought to be an interesting game. The struggling independent team versus the semi-unexpected conference front-runner looking to really hammer home that they are back this season. And we aren’t talking about Army versus some other team for once.
So what are we in store for? Well…
UMass Minutemen
You see that betting line, right? Well I think it’s probably being kind to UMass. The optimist would say that they just came off a dominant win against Wagner, and while that’s a bad FCS team, it’s still good to have a game like that where you wash the losses off to some extent. They’ve also got two one-possession losses, including two weeks ago on the road against South Carolina.
The optimist would say that they just came off a dominant win against Wagner, and while that’s a bad FCS team, it’s still good to have a game like that where you wash the losses off to some extent. They’ve also got two one-possession losses, including two weeks ago on the road against South Carolina.
The realist would note that their one-score loss to South Carolina was a three-score deficit after three quarters, and they got absolutely torched by Louisiana Tech the week before that. Or that they held ODU to field goals repeatedly and still lost by three touchdowns.
The Minutemen have had their moments. They kept it close against Mississippi State and South Carolina, should have beaten Tulane… but you just can’t do things like giving up 20+ unanswered points four times in nine games and live to tell the tale. The offense has its moments, as does the defense, but when your offense can’t stay on the field on third down, and your defense struggles to get off the field in the same situation, that adds up over four quarters.
Troy Trojans
Shout out to the Troy Trojans fans and band that absolutely drowned out the home crowd at South Alabama on a Thursday night. This Trojan squad is rolling, and now they’ve had a week and a half to rest, relax and get healthy for the home stretch, starting with what should be a nice warm-back-up stretch against UMass.
One thing to watch for is a resolution to the early turnover bugaboo. Sure, the Trojans have won five in a row, but they’ve done so in much shakier fashion than they should have. Against South Alabama, they spotted the Jaguars a 14-0 lead with fumbles on two of their first three possessions. Early turnovers meant Troy spotting Idaho a 6-0 lead that would have been worse with a better Vandal red zone offense. Against Georgia State they opened with a field goal, but their only other first-half, non-punt drive was an interception.
This week also serves as a trap game, as next Saturday… by the way can we thank the scheduling gods for a minute here? Troy gets a Thursday night game, then an off week (so 16 days off), then three consecutive home games including their two toughest conference opponents. Something something bias something.
But yeah, don’t get caught looking ahead to App State, Trojans. Don’t do it. You haven’t been smooth enough lately to take this win as assumed, and UMass is at least talented enough to beat you if you walk around with your heads up your butts.
Prediction
So Troy is a three-touchdown favorite, and they’re probably four touchdowns better than UMass from a talent and potential standpoint. But I’ve seen this team, both on TV and in person, screw around for a while and then eventually get their act together and win. I’d expect them to do the same against a bad UMass team, so expect a gradual throttling and another final score that looks kinda close but really isn’t
Troy 41, UMass 24