2016 Sun Belt Football Preview: Troy Trojans

Record last season: 4-8 (3-5 in conference)

Three things to remember from last season:

Troy wasn’t really that horrendous in conference.

Excluding the 45-10 debacle against Georgia Southern, the Trojans lost by an average of 5.5 points in its remaining four Sun Belt defeats. It took Appalachian State overtime to put Troy away, and it required a Herculean performance from super-kicker Austin Rehhow for Idaho to eek out a victory. True, Neal Brown’s squad didn’t put up much fight against North Carolina State, Wisconsin, or Mississippi State (who the Trojans had at home), but there is evidence that Troy could become a conference disrupter (if not a contender) in 2016.

Brandon Silvers is a damn fine QB.

The Sun Belt’s third-highest rated QB in 2015 wasn’t Fredi Knighten or Matt Linehan. It was Brandon Silvers, who posted a sturdy 137.5 QBR, completing 61% of his passes and tossing 20 TDs. Silvers closed the season brilliantly against Louisiana, hitting  22 of 28 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-17 route. The 6’3” signal caller has skills, and he might be the conference’s most underrated passer.  Silvers returns to Troy a Junior with little competition behind him.

Neal Brown is exactly who the Trojans needed.

Replacing a legend like Larry Blakeney is no easy charge, but Neal Brown is bringing a new energy to the program that suggests that the move was long overdue. Brown, the youngest head coach in FBS, guided the Trojans to a seemingly disappointing 4-8 record in his first year, but Troy is rebuilding from almost beneath the foundation, scrambling to counter years of half-interested recruiting and a fan base who was delivering the 4th worst attendance in the Belt. Still, the Trojans ranked 102nd for total offense in 2015, which isn’t good, but ranked 57th for total defense, which isn’t bad, which is why Brown was able to keep his Trojans close against Sun Belt competition.

Three questions going forward

What happens if Silvers gets hurt?

The answer: pain. Playing behind Silvers is a squad of unproven freshman newbies who likely don’t remember that the Trojans were once the undisputed Sheriff of the Sun Belt. Second-year head coach Neal Brown does have the bulk of his bulky offensive line returning in 2016, with the exception of 2nd Team All Sun Belt center Dalton Bennett. That experience should prove valuable to Co-OC/OL Coach Matt Moore, who is charged with keeping the dust off Silvers. That’s a lot of pressure. Because if Silvers goes down, Troy has little chance to make noise in the Sun Belt.

Will transfer Kamryn Melton make an impact on the defense?

Melton jumped to Troy after two unfulfilling seasons at Auburn, and is expected to play a major role at cornerback for Neal Brown’s already highly experienced secondary. The 3-star talent out of high school is 5’10” with 4.45 speed, and that should help Brown neutralize some of the Sun Belt’s bigger passing games. Troy’s defense already held Sun Belt opponents to a fourth stingiest 21-points per game. Can an SEC-caliber shutdown corner win more games for Troy?   

How the hell do you replace Brandon Burks?

Overshadowed by the ridiculous amount of talent the Sun Belt has at running back, Burks totaled a quietly useful 1,000 yards on the ground and 300 in the passing game for the Trojans in 2015. Now he’s gone. Neal Brown recently received some good news when Troy acquired Memphis Tigers transfer RB Jamarius Henderson in July. Adding to the Good News Parade? Jordan Chunn, the 6’1” 227lb wrecking ball who missed nearly all of 2015 due to injury. And Brown has talented freshman in Jabir Frye and 3-star recruit B.J. Smith competing for the starting role, too. Is that enough? Maybe.

2016 season prediction:

Troy opens the season with the Austin Peay Governors, who are not creampuffs. Then it’s cheerful visits to national title contender Clemson and CUSA bully Southern Miss. If Brandon Silver is still functioning for Troy’s conference opener with New Mexico State, then the Trojans have a chance to go deep into the season as Sun Belt contenders. Neal Brown will certainly control is own destiny. He gets Arkansas State and Appalachian State at home late in the season, and he finishes the year at Georgia Southern. This may not be the Trojans’ year to reclaim the Sun Belt Sheriff’s badge, but Troy will have a say as to who wears it.