Troy Trojans at New Mexico State Aggies – Game Preview for our first Sun Belt Conference Throwdown
Troy Trojans (1-1) at New Mexico State Aggies (1-1)
Time: 6:00 PM MT
TV: ESPN3
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Line: Troy -7.5, O/U 62.5
History: Troy leads series 3-1, won last year 52-6
WHY TROY WILL TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS (SCOTT)
Troy came into the season with expectations the likes of which the program has never seen before. The offense returned more production from last season than any other team in the country. Yet after two weeks, that hasn’t exactly translated. The Trojans had an abysmal offensive showing at Boise State in which Troy never found the endzone. The Trojans took a step forward last week against Alabama State with 605 yards of offense. The only problem was that Troy scored just 34 points.
This is where I introduce my new stat, yards per point (YPP) and yards per six points (YP6P). Troy’s YPP against the Hornets was 17.8 which means the YP6P was 106.8. This tells us that Troy gained over a football field worth of yards to score one touchdown. Not ideal. New Mexico State’s 100.2 YP6P is better but not phenomenal (under 90 would be ideal). So what’s the point of this stat? It happens to be the perfect measurement for team discipline. The only things that hurt a team’s YP6P is penalties, turnovers and missed field goals.
Troy’s YP6P through two games (99 against Boise State) hasn’t been great mostly due to penalties. The Trojans had multiple drives end before they could start against Boise State and points taken off the board against Alabama State because of penalties. Luckily for Troy, the Aggies are also quite bad in this department. NMSU has committed 16 penalties through two games while Troy has 18. If this game doesn’t reach the O/U of 63, it’ll be because of penalties.
Troy’s strong suit has easily been its defense. The front seven has been wicked strong through two games. Outside of one 49-yard run by Alexander Mattison, opposing teams have 183 rushing yards on 75 carries against Troy. That’s only 2.44 yards per carry. The secondary held Bronco quarterback Brett Rypien to a career low quarterback rating and the Hornets amassed just 80 passing yards.
However, Tyler Rogers and the Aggie offense are a different beast. Last season, Rogers eviscerated the Troy secondary to the tune of 445 passing yards, but NMSU scored just six points thanks in part to Rogers’ five interceptions. If you’re wondering, NMSU’s YP6P that game was 539… Troy’s secondary was an aggressive ball-hawking unit last season but have only picked off one pass in the first two games of this year.
WHY NEW MEXICO STATE WILL SOMEHOW FIND A WAY TO WIN (NIC)
Last week you saw a very talented New Mexico State offense that spent three quarters producing prolific results against a New Mexico defense that was historically mediocre at best and was now also very young to boot. They then spent the final quarter in “oh damn, we’ve not had to close out a lead this big in a while” mode, as New Mexico brought a new speedster onto the field and it took the Aggies the entire quarter to catch up.
Fortunately for NMSU fans, this year’s rendition found their footing just in time to do just enough to hold on for the win. That’s something that could not have been said in previous years – partly because their defense was digging them into early holes, rather than fading late and needing to regroup. As Coach Martin said, this was a game that needed to happen. You can’t get good at responding to adversity if it never happens.
The Aggies have played two very different games. One where they struggled to get traction for most of the game and then passed their way back into it when Arizona State took their foot off the gas, and then another where they passed their way to a three-score lead and then couldn’t generate the type of ball-control run game that could effectively limit New Mexico’s possessions and close the game out.
Hopefully, the Aggies have learned their lesson; as long as the passes are there, keep going for them. Teams are keying on Larry Rose and not yet truly respecting Jaleel Scott, OJ Clark, and it’s hard yet to tell if the Aggies are not having a lot of rushing success because they’re not rushing much, or if its the opposite, or if it’s something else like “we can pass well enough so far that the run game effectiveness has been irrelevant.”
Can we also talk about penalties? Holy hell. In two games the Aggies have been called for 16 penalties. Of those 16, eight have been on the offense, and of those eight offensive penalties, six have been false starts. Six times in two games! That’s one area where the Aggies can easily improve. The other is in the big play department. Arizona State snagged a pick-six and two touchdown passes of 50+ yards, and New Mexico racked up a 60-yard touchdown run and at least a half-dozen passes in the 15-30 yard range.
The upside for the Aggies is that the Trojans to date have been a pretty efficient offense, but have been lacking in the deep ball department – the one area that NMSU’s defense has shown minimal improvement despite an upgraded pass rush. This week we’ll find out if NMSU’s pass rush is for real, if Troy’s pass offense has been waiting to erupt, and many other things.
PREDICTION TIME
Nic: The Aggies are an improved team from last season, especially in that they finally have a competent pass rush. That said, they still struggle a little to often getting beat over the top when the pass rush doesn’t hit home. Fortunately for them, that doesn’t appear to be something that the Trojans have excelled at so far this season. On offense they’ve got all the passing game firepower a coach could want, but they need sure hands from everyone, not just their top guys. They also need the offensive line to avoid silly penalties while making sure they can at minimum, find enough of a run game to salt away a lead that the passing game creates. I think there’s just enough of a chance they do that this week – New Mexico State 34, Troy 31
Scott: Troy has won this game by a combined score of 104-13 over the past two years but you can throw that out of the window this time around. New Mexico State is very real thanks to a revamped pass rush and the ability to limit turnovers on offense. On the other hand, Troy has a multitude of weapons on the offensive side of the football. Senior quarterback Brandon Silvers found a rhythm last week and is bringing a much more confident arm to Las Cruces. This is a scary thought considering how deep the receiving corps is. Running backs Jordan Chunn and Jamarius Henderson are a thunder and lightning combo that can keep the Aggie blitz at bay. The back end of the defense is more experienced and, while they won’t pick off five passes, they should keep Rogers under 400 yards on Saturday. – Troy 38, New Mexico State 31