Takes from last week

Last week was my first losing week to date, going 1-2 ATS.  After those 2 losses and 1 win I am currently at 22-10-1 on the year.  This past weekend taught me to not go against Georgia State, never bet a game with App in it, and Eastern Michigan is a much better team than their record indicates.  Time to shake it off and move forward.

 

This Weeks Hot Picks

 

Ga State @ Ga Southern (+4) Sat Nov 4th 2:30pm ESPN3

I get it, its a rivalry game and that is why the spread is so thin, but I am not going against GaState two weeks in a row.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which means they have been a value bet.  On the flip side Southern is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, meaning they have been overvalued.

Georgia Southern is still at the bottom of almost every major statistical category in the FBS, I don’t see them keeping it close, even at home.  The Eagles are losing 18 points on average and 16 on average in conference play.

I don’t see this being close.

GA State (-4)

 

Idaho @ Troy (-18) Thurs Nov 2nd 9:15pm ESPNU

Ah, Troy.  I don’t think they will lay an egg like the last time they played mid-week, but I don’t see them blowing out Idaho either.

Since the beginning of the 2016 season Troy has been favored by more than 2 TD’s at home 8 times, and they only covered once.  That’s 1-8 ATS in this situation.  Conversely Idaho is 3-3 ATS in these types of situations being a road underdog.

Jordan Chunn is back and he will have something to prove, but Idaho has the offense to put up enough points to stay in this game early.  I think Troy’s defense gets a little worn out towards the end of the game trying to stop Duckworth and we get a nice backdoor cover.

Idaho (+18)

 

Colorado St. @ Wyoming (+3) Sat. Nov 4nd 6:00pm CBSSN

Both of these teams show up in these types of situations.  Since the beginning of 2016 Wyoming is 10-2 ATS at home, and  5-1 when they are a home underdog.   Colorado State is 8-1 ATS on the road  since 2016 and 2-1 when favored.

Wyoming’s Josh Allen has not lived up to the billing.  72nd in the nation in pass yards per game, averaging 181 per game.  The opposite could be said for Colorado St. QB Nick Stevens, who has averaged over 300 a game and is 12th in the nation for the same statistical category.

It is not only Allen that is struggling, it is Wyoming’s entire offense as well.  They currently rank 127th in the FBS in Total offense this season.  The only reason they have a decent record is their wrecking ball of a Defense.  Currently ranked 25th in overall defense, number 1 in Turnovers gained, 23rd in scoring defense, and 27th in Red Zone defense.

I believe this defense will be giving the Rams fits all game, and I like Wyoming at home.

Wyoming (+3)