Takes from last week

Going 2-2 but not hitting on the parlay is okay, but not great.  I’m 7-4 on the season ATS and 1-1-1 on parlays, which means I’m making more that I’m losing.

I had faith in UAB, and they let me down.  Looking at the box score UAB dominated yards, especially on the ground, but big plays and turnovers did them in.

Idaho is not who we thought they were.  By we, I mean myself.  They are not living up to the preseason hype that I gave them.  It was a close game going into the half with UNLV up 10-3 and then the Rebels blew the doors open.  Three minutes into the 3rd quarter UNLV had a win probability of 95.1% after going up 17-3 and they never looked back.

I will keep following Idaho to see if there is some value once conference play begins.  They could be a team like Arkansas State last year.  Not that I believe the Vandals will share a piece of the conference title, but they could be undervalued in conference play ATS.

Remember, picks are listed in order of confidence.

 

This Weeks Hot Picks

 

Kansas @ Ohio (-7.5) Saturday Sept. 16 11:00 am CNT ESPNU

Kansas has not beat an FBS team by more than 7.5 points since 2014.   Since 2010 they have only beat 3 FBS opponents by more than 7.5 points.  I will give them credit, they are putting up major passing yards, currently 23rd in the nation.   I believe that number will lower against a more staunch Ohio defense than the Jayhawks first two competitors.

Ohio is coming off a tough loss to a good Purdue team.  They have had success on the ground and should continue this Saturday.

Over their past 10 games Kansas is 3-7 ATS as a road underdog.  Last year Ohio went into Lawrence and came away with a 37-21 victory.  I believe this game might be a tad closer, I’m still taking Ohio ATS.

Ohio (-7.5)

 

Troy at NMSU (+7) Saturday Sept. 16 6:00 pm CNT ESPN3

NMSU looks good.  They are my top pick to win the SunBelt based on their first 2 games.  After playing Arizona State and New Mexico they are 27th in the nation in total yards.  I am impressed because many teams have played one FBS and one FCS, like Troy, which have skewed their overall stats.

Troy did not play up to expectations against Boise, and honestly Boise didn’t have their best game either.  The Trojans showed they have the ability to put up yards in their blowout win against an FCS Alabama State, but I am not confident that will work against this Aggie defense.

From what I’ve seen so far, and how they have been performing ATS I am going with NMSU at home.  I believe bettors are either stuck on the preseason hype of Troy, or the lack of preseason hype from NMSU.

NMSU (+7) 

 

Coastal @ UAB (+2.5) Saturday Sept. 16 1:00pm CNT No TV

A match up of a team coming from FCS and another coming back from the dead.  I believe this is the highest match up of Rushing Yards per game in the nation.  UAB is currently at 297.5 per game and the Chanticleers are at 321 from their one game at UMASS.

I’m taking UAB as a value bet against Coastal.  I believe they can slow down that Coastal option running game and force them to throw the ball, which is not what Coastal wants to do.   I believe this line could be closer on a neutral field, but getting two points at home against a team coming off their first FBS win against a struggling UMASS does it for me.

This is a gamble.

UAB (+2.5)

 

Fresh Parlay:

San Diego State (+10) with Over (46)