If you play it, will they come? Troy’s record versus the Iron Bowl
A common complaint among Group of Five alumni is the prevalence of students who remain fans of a nearby Power Five school—or at least gear for the P5 team in class or to the Group of Five game.
In the state of Alabama, the rivalry between Auburn and Alabama itself overshadows the three Group of Five schools. At every Troy, UAB and South Alabama tailgate, there are several televisions set up simply for either of the two teams.
Do not take this as some snob who’s writing yet another “pull for your school only” opinion piece. I’m simply setting up the background for the data I’ve collected.
You see, both Troy and South have moved their last home games the past two years—Troy in 2017 and South in 2018—for one reason or another. Regardless, I’ve heard an adage that I wanted to explore:
“If you make them decide between that game and the Iron Bowl, the Iron Bowl will win.”
Meaning of course that attendance of those last home games will be hurt by people who choose to stay home and watch the Iron Bowl rather than go to a Troy or South Alabama game. I wanted to find out if that was true.
Here’s the problem: South Alabama doesn’t have anywhere near enough data.
In the past ten years, the Jags have only played six games the same week as the Iron Bowl. Of those, only one was the same day—at Georgia State, 2013—and only two were at home—Navy, 2014, and Coastal Carolina this year. Both home games were played on the day before.
As for Troy… good news, there’s 25 years’ worth of data.
Table 1a. Games the same week as Iron Bowl, 1993-2018
| Year | Date | Site | Date | Site | Attend. | Yearly Avg. | Percent | Capacity |
| 1993 | Nov 20 | Auburn | Nov 20 | Birmingham, AL | — | 7,543 | — | 12,000 |
| 1994 | Nov 19 | Birmingham | Nov 17 | Troy | 14,329 | 12,753 | 112.36% | 12,000 |
| 1995 | Nov 18 | Auburn | Nov 16 | Birmingham, AL | — | 9,637 | — | 12,000 |
| 1996 | Nov 23 | Birmingham | Nov 21 | Troy | 9,800 | 10,286 | 95.28% | 12,000 |
| 1997 | Nov 22 | Auburn | Nov 20 | Troy | 8,900 | 8,695 | 102.36% | 12,000 |
| 1998 | Nov 21 | Birmingham | Nov 21 | Jacksonville, AL | — | 16,991 | — | 17,500 |
| 1999 | Nov 20 | Auburn | Nov 20 | Troy | 17,266 | 16,073 | 107.42% | 17,500 |
| 2000 | Nov 18 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 18 | Jacksonville, AL | — | 15,055 | — | 17,500 |
| 2001 | Nov 17 | Auburn | Nov 17 | Troy | 17,357 | 16,966 | 102.30% | 17,500 |
| 2002 | Nov 23 | Tuscaloosa | No game that week | 13,403 | — | 17,500 | ||
| 2003 | Nov 22 | Auburn | Nov 22 | Troy | 19,057 | 21,091 | 90.36% | 30,000 |
| 2004 | Nov 20 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 20 | Troy | 18,871 | 21,228 | 88.90% | 30,000 |
| 2005 | Nov 19 | Auburn | No game that week | 19,425 | — | 30,000 | ||
| 2006 | Nov 18 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 18 | Troy | 20,462 | 20,810 | 98.33% | 30,000 |
| 2007 | Nov 24 | Auburn | Nov 20 | Troy | 18,242 | 20,479 | 89.08% | 30,000 |
| 2008 | Nov 29 | Tuscaloosa | No game that week | 19,231 | — | 30,000 | ||
| 2009 | Nov 27 | Auburn | Nov 28 | Lafayette, LA | — | 18,413 | — | 30,000 |
| 2010 | Nov 26 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 27 | Troy | 16,004 | 18,947 | 84.47% | 30,000 |
| 2011 | Nov 26 | Auburn | Nov 26 | Bowling Green, KY | — | 17,898 | — | 30,000 |
| 2012 | Nov 24 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 24 | Murfreesboro TN | — | 20,952 | — | 30,000 |
| 2013 | Nov 30 | Auburn | Nov 29 | Troy | 13,073 | 18,906 | 69.15% | 30,000 |
| 2014 | Nov 29 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 29 | Troy | 12,241 | 16,767 | 73.01% | 30,000 |
| 2015 | Nov 28 | Auburn | Nov 27 | Atlanta, GA | — | 19,399 | — | 30,000 |
| 2016 | Nov 26 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 26 | San Marcos, TX | — | 22,534 | — | 30,000 |
| 2017 | Nov 25 | Auburn | Nov 24 | Troy | 20,737 | 24,456 | 84.79% | 30,000 |
| 2018 | Nov 24 | Tuscaloosa | Nov 24 | Boone, NC | — | 24,527 | — | 30,402 |
Bold indicates same-day games, italics indicate home games.
Of the 25, there are 13 games that were actually played in Troy. Let me pull them out for you.
Table 1b. Home games the same week as Iron Bowl, 1993-2018
| Date | Iron Bowl Location | Opponent | Attendance | Average Attendance | % of Avg. Attend | Capacity |
| 11/17/1994 | Birmingham | Samford | 14,329 | 12,753 | 112.36% | 12,000 |
| 11/21/1996 | Birmingham | Samford | 9,800 | 10,286 | 95.28% | 12,000 |
| 11/20/1997 | Auburn | Jax State | 8,900 | 8,695 | 102.36% | 12,000 |
| 11/20/1999* | Auburn | Jax State | 17,266 | 16,073 | 107.42% | 17,500 |
| 11/17/2001* | Auburn | Jax State | 17,357 | 16,966 | 102.30% | 17,500 |
| 11/22/2003* | Auburn | ULM | 19,057 | 21,091 | 90.36% | 30,000 |
| 11/20/2004* | Tuscaloosa | MTSU | 18,871 | 21,228 | 88.90% | 30,000 |
| 11/18/2006* | Tuscaloosa | Arkansas St. | 20,462 | 20,810 | 98.33% | 30,000 |
| 11/20/2007 | Auburn | MTSU | 18,242 | 20,479 | 89.08% | 30,000 |
| 11/27/2010 | Tuscaloosa | Western KY | 16,004 | 18,947 | 84.47% | 30,000 |
| 11/29/2013 | Auburn | Texas St. | 13,073 | 18,906 | 69.15% | 30,000 |
| 11/29/2014* | Tuscaloosa | ULL | 12,241 | 16,767 | 73.01% | 30,000 |
| 11/24/2017 | Auburn | Texas St. | 20,737 | 24,456 | 84.79% | 30,000 |
(* denotes games played on the same day)
So without context these numbers show a trend: Impressively topping the average, dropping to stay around the average, and finally plummeting… before an upswing.
Regardless, the fact that all but two games were at least 84.4% (and four games were above 100%) of the average attendance is striking.
Now let’s add in context in a few ways. We want to look at factors that may influence these numbers from the outside:
- Where does expectation (win percentage) come into play?
- Where does the 2001 move to FBS fit in with this?
- How do the changes in capacity affect these numbers?
- How does the attendance of each game compare with the other games that season?
Table 2. Win percentage vs. attendance of same-week games
| Date | Attend. | Avg. Attend | %Attend | Win% | Opponent Win% | %Diff |
| 11/17/1994 | 14,329 | 12,753 | 112.36% | 66.7% | 40.9% | 25.8% |
| 11/21/1996 | 9,800 | 10,286 | 95.28% | 85.7% | 54.5% | 31.2% |
| 11/20/1997 | 8,900 | 8,695 | 102.36% | 45.5% | 9.1% | 36.4% |
| 11/20/1999 | 17,266 | 16,073 | 107.42% | 84.6% | 9.1% | 75.5% |
| 11/17/2001 | 17,357 | 16,966 | 102.30% | 63.6% | 40.0% | 23.6% |
| 11/22/2003 | 19,057 | 21,091 | 90.36% | 50.0% | 8.3% | 41.7% |
| 11/20/2004 | 18,871 | 21,228 | 88.90% | 58.3% | 45.5% | 12.9% |
| 11/18/2006 | 20,462 | 20,810 | 98.33% | 61.5% | 50.0% | 11.5% |
| 11/20/2007 | 18,242 | 20,479 | 89.08% | 66.7% | 41.7% | 25.0% |
| 11/27/2010 | 16,004 | 18,947 | 84.47% | 61.5% | 16.7% | 44.9% |
| 11/29/2013 | 13,073 | 18,906 | 69.15% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 11/29/2014 | 12,241 | 16,767 | 73.01% | 25.0% | 63.6% | -38.6% |
| 11/24/2017 | 20,737 | 24,456 | 84.79% | 84.6% | 16.7% | 67.9% |
For the better part of the last 25 years, Troy has been a successful team on the football field. From 2011-2015 that simply wasn’t true.
In only two of these games did Troy have the same or worse win percentage than its opponent: 2013 and 2014. Troy won 9 games across that two-year stretch—more than enough to explain the steep fall in attendance for those two years.
Table 3. Attendance, capacity and win percentage
| Year | Same-week Attendance | Yearly Average | Attendance/ Average | Capacity | Average/ Capacity | Attendance/ Capacity | Win% |
| 1993 | — | 7,543 | — | 12,000 | 62.9% | — | 89.3% |
| 1994 | 14,329 | 12,753 | 112.36% | 12,000 | 106.3% | 119.4% | 66.7% |
| 1995 | — | 9,637 | — | 12,000 | 80.3% | — | 91.7% |
| 1996 | 9,800 | 10,286 | 95.28% | 12,000 | 85.7% | 81.7% | 85.7% |
| 1997 | 8,900 | 8,695 | 102.36% | 12,000 | 72.5% | 74.2% | 45.5% |
| 1998 | — | 16,991 | — | 17,500 | 97.1% | — | 66.7% |
| 1999 | 17,266 | 16,073 | 107.42% | 17,500 | 91.8% | 98.7% | 84.6% |
| 2000 | — | 15,055 | — | 17,500 | 86.0% | — | 83.3% |
| 2001 | 17,357 | 16,966 | 102.30% | 17,500 | 96.9% | 99.2% | 63.6% |
| 2002 | 13,403 | — | 17,500 | 76.6% | — | 33.3% | |
| 2003 | 19,057 | 21,091 | 90.36% | 30,000 | 70.3% | 63.5% | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 18,871 | 21,228 | 88.90% | 30,000 | 70.8% | 62.9% | 58.3% |
| 2005 | 19,425 | — | 30,000 | 64.8% | — | 36.4% | |
| 2006 | 20,462 | 20,810 | 98.33% | 30,000 | 69.4% | 68.2% | 61.5% |
| 2007 | 18,242 | 20,479 | 89.08% | 30,000 | 68.3% | 60.8% | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 19,231 | — | 30,000 | 64.1% | — | 61.5% | |
| 2009 | — | 18,413 | — | 30,000 | 61.4% | — | 69.2% |
| 2010 | 16,004 | 18,947 | 84.47% | 30,000 | 63.2% | 53.3% | 61.5% |
| 2011 | — | 17,898 | — | 30,000 | 59.7% | — | 25.0% |
| 2012 | — | 20,952 | — | 30,000 | 69.8% | — | 41.7% |
| 2013 | 13,073 | 18,906 | 69.15% | 30,000 | 63.0% | 43.6% | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 12,241 | 16,767 | 73.01% | 30,000 | 55.9% | 40.8% | 25.0% |
| 2015 | — | 19,399 | — | 30,000 | 64.7% | — | 33.3% |
| 2016 | — | 22,534 | — | 30,000 | 75.1% | — | 76.9% |
| 2017 | 20,737 | 24,456 | 84.79% | 30,000 | 81.5% | 69.1% | 84.6% |
| 2018 | — | 24,527 | — | 30,402 | 80.7% | — | 76.9% |
I almost feel as though this one table is the most helpful. I’ve italicized each year the capacity has grown and bolded Troy’s first FBS season. It’s clear that one of these has a major impact on attendance numbers.
The other is more roundabout.
In 2001, when Troy moved up to the FBS, the stronger competition crushed Troy’s win percentage. As we’ve seen, that inherently brings a drop in attendance. However, the move up came with an upgrade to seating—gotta draw in those bigger school crowds somehow.
In 2003, Veterans Memorial Stadium nearly doubled in size from 17,500 to 30,000 seats. Though the expansion saw an overall rise in numbers, it saw a huge drop in percentages. That’s to be expected, and though it feels like a more accurate representation of attendance in these games there’s still a direct correlation with the trend in win percentage.
The next step is to break down each year by itself. How does each game compare to the season before? What does that percentage number actually mean?
Table 4. Attendance per home game in same-week seasons
| Season | 1999 | 2001 | 2003 | 2004 | 2006 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 |
| Week 1 | 26,265 | 19,886 | 21,398 | |||||||
| Week 2 | 26,574 | 20,021 | 21,331 | 29,278 | ||||||
| Week 3 | 17,311 | 18,514 | 24,102 | 17,320 | ||||||
| Week 4 | 19,889 | 16,320 | 27,324 | |||||||
| Week 5 | 17,212 | 26,000 | 20,029 | 18,273 | ||||||
| Week 6 | 16,852 | 19,415 | 22,283 | 23,024 | 17,628 | 25,211 | ||||
| Week 7 | 17,426 | 17,162 | 19,417 | 17,795 | 23,887 | 15,664 | ||||
| Week 8 | 20,151 | 20,111 | 23,846 | |||||||
| Week 9 | 17,122 | 20,515 | 20,243 | 17,013 | 20,341 | |||||
| Week 10 | 17,357 | 20,462 | 16,418 | |||||||
| Week 11 | 17,266 | 15,307 | 18,871 | 18,242 | 16,004 | 20,737 | ||||
| Week 12 | 10,102 | 19,057 | 17,893 | 13,073 | 12,241 | |||||
| Week 13 | 12,689 |
Italics indicate same-week games, bold indicates same day.
This table is missing three years. Beyond 1999, a majority of Troy’s attendance records are missing. That’s not a knock on the athletic department; the sack wasn’t counted as its own stat until 1982.
That being said, a clear downward trend from Week 1 to Week 12 is evident. That last game appears to be the lowest of the season—regardless of whether it’s the same week as the Iron Bowl. For instance, in 1999, 2001 and 2007 Troy had a home game the following week.
In all three the attendance was at the lowest of the season.
I’ve come to the conclusion that three things explain the fluctuations in attendance numbers:
- The lateness of the game in the season pushes attendance lower than the season average.
- The expansion of capacity over the last 20 years caused the dip in attendance percentage.
- The win percentage of the team affects the attendance numbers as a whole.
The question then is, how does the Iron Bowl affect attendance in these games? If there was a change we would see it when comparing same-week games to same-day games.
This brings me to my last table:
Table 5. Attendance for same-day games vs. same-week games
| Attendance | Yearly Average | Capacity | Percent | Attend/Avg. | Attend/Cap |
Avg./Cap
|
|
| AVG | 15,872 | 17,497 | 23,923 | 92.14% | 90.7% | 66.3% | 73.1% |
| same week | 14,441 | 16,360 | 22,286 | 91.07% | 88.3% | 64.8% | 73.4% |
| w/o 14 | 14,669 | 15,936 | 21,000 | 94.72% | 92.0% | 69.9% | 75.9% |
| same day | 17,542 | 18,823 | 25,833 | 93.39% | 93.2% | 67.9% | 72.9% |
| w/o 13 | 18,603 | 19,234 | 25,000 | 97.46% | 96.7% | 74.4% | 76.9% |
Bold indicates the highest value in each column.
The “Percent” column here is the average of each individual game attendance/yearly average percentage. The “Attendance/Average” column is literally the “Attendance” column divided by the “Yearly Average” column.
These numbers are by all means comparable, but the most damning evidence comes when you remove the two outliers—2013 and 2014. Each year is the lowest in the attendance/average column as well as the average/capacity for the relevant years. Removing them only increases the gap between the same-day games and the same-week games.
Even if you include those games, the same-day game percentages are between two and five percent higher than the same-week percentages. That may well be within the margin of error, but the fact that it’s high across the board gives me confidence.
The games played on the same day as the Iron Bowl have a slightly higher attendance than those played a different day in the same week.
Clearly, there are other factors that go into scheduling and dates. The deal with ESPN has certain reservations I’m sure, and it’s simply improbable that Troy plays a home game every year the week of Thanksgiving.
Furthermore, I didn’t even look at the difference between Saturday games and weekday games (though it wouldn’t look too much different from the last table—since 1988, the Iron Bowl was only played on a Friday twice.)
That being said, the adage is simply false. Troy fans will go watch Troy at home regardless of the Iron Bowl. Letting the other schools in the state determine how and when your team plays is ridiculous.
As for South Alabama, the lack of data still remains. I suggest taking the chance when you can. If you never make them decide between your game and the Iron Bowl, they’ll never pick you.