Is the 2019 schedule the best home schedule in Troy history?
With players just days away from reporting, Troy is just under 100 days from starting a new era.
Chip Lindsey takes over the ship as the third Troy coach in about 30 years and will guide the Trojans through a schedule that may include the best home slate in school history.
There are no Power Fives making their way to the Vet, but there are multiple Sun Belt championship contenders coming to town. A regional rival is making its first ever trip to Troy, as well, to top it off.
| 2019 Home Schedule | 2018 rec |
| Campbell | (6-5) |
| Southern Miss | (6-5) |
| Arkansas St | (8-5) |
| South Alabama | (3-9) |
| Georgia Southern | (10-3) |
| Appalachian St | (11-2) |
| Total: | 44-29 .603 |
The one tool we have to our advantage in analyzing past schedules that we don’t have to assess this year’s schedule is hindsight.
To help mitigate that, I’ve compiled the season records and season-before records for every opponent that has played in Troy since 2001.
As seen above, Troy’s opponents combined to win 60.3 percent of their games last year. The only other time the percentage was above 60 was 2012, when Troy’s opponents won 60.5 percent of their games the season before.
That year produced the only home schedule that could compete with the 2019 schedule. The Trojans went 2-4 against a schedule that won 58.4 percent of its games, the highest opponent win percentage in the school’s FBS history.
It was also the worst home record in school history.
| 2012 | Result | 2012 rec |
| ULL | L 37-24 | (9-4) |
| Miss St | L 30-24 | (8-5) |
| WKU | L 31-26 | (7-6) |
| FIU | W 38-37 | (3-9) |
| Navy | W 41-31 | (8-5) |
| Ark St | L 41-34 | (10-3) |
| Total | (2-4) | 45-32 |
Troy hosted only one team with a losing record and the top two Sun Belt finishers in Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Throw in an improved Navy team and Mississippi State and you’ve got the toughest home schedule the school has ever played.
That year, every team Troy played except Florida International either improved on their record from the prior season or stayed the same. The Panthers dropped from 8-5 to 3-9.
This can be contested, but no true rival played in front of the Troy crowd that year. The Trojans were also coming off a 3-9 season and finished 5-7 in 2012.
The average home attendance was 20,951, but heavily propped by the 29,000-plus who watched the Mississippi State game.
Add in all of these factors and you get what could possibly be the toughest schedule, but not necessarily the best home schedule.
Now, we still have a hindsight problem to address before we can crown the 2019 schedule the absolute best.
Going back, only three home schedules featured teams that had combined to win more than 50 percent of their games (2012, 2005, 2003). Of those three, only one produced a schedule with a winning opponents record (2012).
Taking a look at what happened in 2005 and 2003, both seasons have their anomalies.
| 2005 | ||
| Cal Poly | W 27-10 | (9-4) |
| UAB | L 27-7 | (5-6) |
| FIU | W 18-13 | (5-6) |
| FAU | W 28-14 | (2-9) |
| MTSU | L 17-7 | (4-7) |
| Total | (3-2) | 25-32 |
The 2005 opponents won 43.9 percent of their games, 15 percent less than the 58.9 win percentage the season before. This can be pinned on one and only one team: Florida Atlantic.
The Owls were 9-3 in 2004 but dropped to 2-9 in 2005. In 2004, FAU was only a transitioning FBS squad and played four non-FBS teams.
FAU didn’t play a single non-FBS team in 2005 and lined up against four Power Five teams.
| 2003 | ||
| SELA | W 28-0 | (5-7) |
| Marshall | W 33-24 | (8-4) |
| FIU | W 21-10 | (2-10) |
| ULM | W 28-24 | (1-11) |
| Total | (4-0) | 16-32 |
Troy’s 2003 opponents won just 33.3 percent of their games, far from the 52.8 percent in 2002. The large difference is partly due to Southeast Louisiana not having a football team in 2002 but mostly due to regressions from the three other teams.
Marshall fell from 11-2 to 8-4 while FIU dropped to 2-10 from 5-6. Louisiana-Monroe fell to 1-11 from 3-9.
Going in, only one of these teams was a quality known commodity and propped the win percentage above 50 percent. This schedule can be tossed from the comparison pool.
Since 2001, the difference between the opponents record and the prior season opponent record has been less than five percent 10 times.
It’s been greater than 10 percent just five times, with four of those occurrences coming in the 2000’s.
My educated assumption is that Troy’s 2019 opponents will not waver more than five percent away from its 60.3 2018 win percentage.
As for the actual opponents, Arkansas State, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are all division contenders. The other conference game will be a nationally televised weekday bout with arch rival South Alabama.
The remaining FBS opponent is against budding rival Southern Miss, who will bring with it its own sizable contingent of fans.
The final touch: Troy is a contender itself. The pieces of the perfect home schedule have seemingly come together for the first time in the post-Blakeney era.
Bonus
It wouldn’t be right to not point out the worst home schedule in school history while we’re at it.
The 2011 season was the beginning of the end for Troy’s dominant stretch in the 2000’s. The Trojans were 3-9, but put together a 3-2 home record against an abysmal group of teams.
| 2011 | ||
| MTSU | W 38-35 | (2-10) |
| UAB | W 24-23 | (3-9) |
| ULM | L 38-10 | (4-8) |
| North Texas | L 38-33 | (5-7) |
| FAU | W 34-7 | (1-11) |
| Total | (3-2) | 15-45 |
None of these teams had a winning record in 2010 and all of them outside of North Texas actually got worse. The Mean Green managed to improve to 5-7 from 3-9.