T Time: The Trojans’ Battle Against the Clock
A few Saturdays ago I stayed up later than usual. I’m not quite sure why, but it seemed to have something to do with football?
Not ringing a bell.
Anyway, Josh Odom hit us up for a really good question: How does the time of day affect Troy’s performance?
It’s a great question. Here at the Trojan Wall, we’re all about explaining football games through natural forces, so why not venture from astronomy to chronology?
I went back to the first season of FBS play. That seemed like a decent sample size—238 games.
Here’s how those games break down by time of day.
This is the most I can equally distribute these games. I had to drop the “late night” descriptor based on my data, but the other five still stand up.
Troy has only played 27 games at 7 p.m. or later. Just one game has kicked off later than the BYU game this year: the 2004 Silicon Valley Classic.
(It’s worth noting that game had several weather delays as well.)
The Trojans have kicked off 38 games between 3 and 5 p.m. and 39 games between 11 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
Two hour-long time frames have absolutely dominated the Trojans’ schedule: 2:00 – 2:45 and 6:00 – 6:30.
Troy has kicked off 62 games at 6:00, which is one in every four games it’s played since 2001, and three games per season.
Now, what does that mean for wins?
The trend is clear. Troy sleeps late, performs well in the afternoon, and drifts off after primetime.
Knowing that the 6:00 block dominates the schedule, it’s no surprise it’s the closest to .500. The 3:00 – 5:00 hour is wider but it’s surprisingly outperforming the 2:00 hour.
The record of the night games also surprises me at how much higher it is compared to morning/lunchtime games.
Let’s get into each of the five times.
Morning (11:00 – 1:30)
Troy is an astounding 12-27 before 2:00 p.m.
More shockingly, Troy has only won four games before noon—three by 10 points or fewer.
- 11:00 a.m. 9/1/12 – UAB 39-29
- 11:00 a.m. 9/15/18 – Nebraska 24-19
- 11:30 a.m. 11/22/03 – ULM 28-24
- 11:37 a.m. 11/17/01 – Jacksonville State 21-3
Perhaps the strangest kickoff time for this period is 11:21 a.m. Twice Troy played at SEC teams, and both games were broadcast on the SEC Network.
I guess it meant more.
Jokes aside, most of Troy’s Power 5 games are clumped into this time period. That’s a stronger correlation to the low percentage.
Troy is a more respectable 9-7 in games against conference opponents before noon.
Early Afternoon (2:00 – 2:45)
This is without a doubt the single most successful period of kickoff time in Troy football.
The Trojans have won two of every three game in this time period, and 69% of every game that’s kicked off at 2:30.
The two strangest kickoff times in this block have involved teams out West:
- 2:05 p.m. 11/15/03 Utah State W 23-14
- 2:45 p.m. 9/2/17 Boise State L 13-24
This is also a really common late-season kickoff time. 30 of the 51 games were scheduled for October 24 or later.
Mid Afternoon (3:00 – 5:00)
If 2:00 p.m. is the most successful time period, then 3:00 is the most successful hour.
Either way it’s clear Troy dominates the afternoon.
The Trojans have won 26 of 38 games in this block, and they haven’t lost a single game that began at 3:30.
Maybe Brent should consider delaying the game Saturday. You know, weather precautions.
The number of losses only goes up to 5 if you expand the parameters to 3:00 – 4:00.
I’m caught between two games in deciding the strangest kickoff time:
- 3:15 p.m. 11/21/09 Florida Atlantic W 47-21
- 4:30 p.m. 10/19/02 Marshall L 7-24
One is a blowout win at the only kickoff time that isn’t an hour or half hour. The other is a blowout loss that’s the only 4:30 kickoff in Troy’s FBS history.
Late Afternoon (6:00 – 6:30)
Welcome to prime time. The most common kickoff time in Troy history is without a doubt the 6:00 slot.
The advent of TV appearances made that more lucrative for both conference and non-conference opponents, and though it added more data that correlation brought down the overall win percentage.
I mean, Troy has kicked off just seven fewer times in this one hour than it has from 11:00 – 2:45. The Trojans have won just two fewer games in this hour compared to both Morning/Early Afternoon blocks.
The real weak link in this block is the 6:30 kickoff. Troy is 6-9 after the evening news, with a .559 record before that.
It’s splitting hairs at this point, though; I’ve already said the sheer volume of games drug the win percentage down.
The strangest kickoff time helped:
- 6:10 p.m. 8/30/03 Kansas State L 5-41
The Wildcats scored first with a safety. Needless to say Troy has not been back to Kansas.
Night (7:00 – 10:00)
The first glance shows this block isn’t as impactful as it would seem; after all, Troy has won 13 of 27 games in this slot. That’s literally almost half.
Also, Troy has also lost six games in the 7:00 hour.
Once you leave the realm of decent kickoff times, Troy’s record fades to 3-7, flashing like police lights:
- 7:15 – 8:00: 0-4 (0-1 bowls)
- 8:00 – 8:30: 3-0 (2-0)
- 8:30 – 10:00: 0-3 (0-1)
So clearly kick off at your 8:00 if you want to win, or it’s the postseason. That’s officially T-Roy’s bedtime.
That brings us back around to the BYU game, the first game Troy’s ever begun at 9:15. It’s the latest a scheduled kickoff has happened, but it’s also not the strangest late night kick.
- 7:10 p.m. 9/6/03 Minnesota L 7-48
I guess if you have your own network you get to make up the kickoff times. Must be nice.
In the end, it’s clear Troy should avoid the early kickoffs as much as the late ones. That little timeframe in the afternoon is when the Trojans play best.
That is T Time.