The Other Side of the Wall: Arkansas State
This is it. The last game of a magical regular season is upon us.
Much like the situation 5 years ago, Troy returns to Centennial Bank Stadium with a conference title game on the line.
Thankfully, Justice Hansen and Omar Bayless aren’t on the sideline this time.
| Team | Arkansas State |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 2:00 pm, ESPN+ |
| 2022 Record | 3-8, 1-6 |
| Best Win | ULM, 45-28 |
| Worst Loss | South, 3-31 |
| Troy’s Record | 7-10 |
| Last Matchup | W, 38-10 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 6th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 104 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 70.8% |
| Spread | -13.5 |
I’ve been cautious every week about the team on the other sideline, because Sun Belt chaos works overtime.
Any team can win any game on any given Saturday. Plus, the Red Wolves’ numbers are so far better than ULM’s.
Look at the 70% win chance for Troy. That’s much lower than ULM’s was.
Still, Arkansas State has only won three games this season.
They have to be decent right?
| Team | Score | Diff | FPI Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grambling | 58-3 | 55 | N/A (FCS) |
| ULM | 45-28 | 17 | 115 |
| UMass | 35-33 | 2 | 130 |
Those aren’t very good teams. Those aren’t very good wins.
To be fair to the Red Wolves though, they’re 7 points away from being a 6-win, bowl-eligible team.
How did those close losses go?
| Team | Score | Diff | FPI Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | 26-29 | -3 | 106 |
| Southern Miss | 19-20 | -1 | 99 |
| Texas State | 13-16 | -3 | 109 |
Those aren’t very good teams, and they aren’t good losses either.
The next closest game? A 12-point loss to Memphis.
But you know what? Maybe the stats will tell us a different story.
| Troy | stAte | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 40 | 72 | +32 |
| Rushing Offense | 114 | 124 | +10 |
| Scoring Offense | 103 | 82 | -21 |
| Total Offense | 83 | 116 | +33 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 28 | 102 | +74 |
| Rushing Defense | 33 | 73 | +40 |
| Scoring Defense | 9 | 101 | +92 |
| Total Defense | 20 | 93 | +73 |
| Turnover Margin | 68 | 46 | -22 |
Yeah that’s still awful. Apart from turnover margin, the highest ranking there is the No. 72 passing offense.
Somehow their scoring offense is also better? But winning games with just 10 points will do that to you.
I would dive deeper into the stats to see how this team matches up with Troy, but I know I’m going to be disappointed.
To brighten up this analysis, we reached out to Jeremy at Howlraiser.com. Here’s what he had to say.
Describe Arkansas State like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
At this point, the Red Wolves are more fleas than dog.
Woof. Off to a great start. You’re right though.
What movie title best describes the Warhawks’ expectations at this point in the season?
This is The End, starring Jay Baruchel and Seth Rogen.
Fitting. This is destined to be a downer of a preview isn’t it?
In one word, describe the Louisiana Monroe win. Why that word?
Routine. The Warhawks haven’t defeat Arkansas State in more than a decade. It’s like walking into the shower and immediately reaching for the Irish Spring. It’s a reflex.
Oh yeah, kinda like Troy and that team in Mobile. Got it. There’s a bright spot there though, right?
In one word, describe the Texas State loss. Why that word?
Routine. Arkansas State hasn’t defeated the Bobcats in four seasons. We’ve grown to love the pain.
Never mind.
Which Hogwarts house is Coach Jones in?
Hufflepuff. When you say, “I belong to House Hufflepuff,” people just nod and say, “That’s cool. That’s cool” before changing the subject.
Finally, someone understands the assignment. That’s so sad though. For him this time, not Ark State.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
- Ethan Hassler (the dude has really stepped it up with the QB pressure)
- Eddie Smith (his leadership presence at safety has dramatically reduced the number of big scoring plays against A-State)
- and Melique Straker (he’s really come into his own at linebacker)
When ULM snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Run up the middle for a loss of two yards.
That’s what I said against Army and Louisiana, to be fair.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
I’m thinking there was some sort of deep-space, cosmic event, like a belch of gamma rays from Uranus that somehow granted the Red Wolves the superhuman ability to convert on third down.
Ha. Belch from… sorry, I’m a child.
What do fans expect the Red Wolves to be doing in December?
Fans will want to see significant changes with the staff, especially on offense.
See? Santa might come to visit you too!
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even if Troy is at home)?
J-Towns Grill is my go-to. There’s a bbq-specific joint in Jonesboro, but I can’t even remember it’s same because I’m always at J-Towns.
Menu time. I really need those Sloppy Joe Fries in my life… or my arteries.
Is ULM a Coke or Pepsi school?
Presenting a Pepsi can when a Coke is requested would trigger a riot in Jonesboro.
Understandable. Troy is 0-1 against Pepsi schools and 9-1 against Coke schools.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
That Trojan mascot you got? Does he wear underwear or his he free-ranging it? The UA Little Rock trojan was definitely a sans-scabbard kind of guy (no evidence to support that, just a hunch). Would this explain why he doesn’t carry a visible short sword?
Dude, as much as T-Roy has been through (kidnapped twice, lost a ton of weight, got a facelift and a brow tuck), he’s ALWAYS covered in armor. Feathered helmet to sandaled foot. Doesn’t ever take it off. Kinda like that guy from Arrested Development.
Well that was a letdown. This preview is already so much shorter than the others usually are.
Again, never overlook an opponent. Troy will be getting the best out of every team.
But this is one team that may not have much in the way of good.
Maybe DK can have a shot at breaking the rushing record. Who knows?
Final prediction: 24-6 Troy.
Again, special thanks to Jeremy. You can follow him on Twitter here.