The Other Side of the Wall: Birmingham Bowl Edition
Troy is in uncharted territory.
It’s the first Power 5 opponent for a Sun Belt bowl game.
It’s Troy’s first time on ABC.
It’s Troy’s first bowl game with an interim head coach.
And yet, Troy looks like the more complete team, at least on paper.
| Team | Duke |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 11 AM, ABC |
| Current Record | 7-5, 4-4 |
| Troy’s Record | 0-2 |
| Last Matchup | L, 17-34 |
| FPI Rank | 31 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 42.8% |
| Spread | Troy -7.5 |
The line has gone up for Troy this week, but the FPI hasn’t moved despite both teams losing their head coach and a few starters to the transfer portal.
Troy is on a 10-game win streak, and the last five games were won by an average margin of 20 points. The Trojans are 2-1 in single-score games.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils are 2-4 over the last six games, with an average margin of -5.3 If anything, the 30-19 win over Pitt skews the numbers, as they’re 1-3 in single-score games.
For a season that began 5-1 with a loss to No. 11 Notre Dame, Duke’s looking to end the season with some kind of positive note.
To get a feel for Duke’s perspective, I’ve reached out to Ben from Bull City Coordinators.
Here it is, the last Q&A of the year.
What does the warning label for this team say?
Not FDA approved. Given all the injuries this team has had, it has been a bit of work in progress at times. The OL has had to be real versatile and the twos and threes on the depth chart have had to get ready in a hurry. Regardless, just like many drugs have off-label uses, this Duke team managed to find a way.
Side effects may include disappointment.
What Taylor Swift song title best describes Duke’s season? Why?
Not a Swiftie, so I had to take a timeout to talk to the coach about this one. And, by coach, I mean my wife and daughter. Per them, I’m going with You’re Losing Me. Why that song? Look at all the guys who are hitting the portal or are declaring for the draft. We’re losing a lot of key contributors and that doesn’t even get into the coaching turnover. I hope the lyrics match the song’s title – I trusted my coaches.
The second line literally says “We thought a cure would come through in time, now I fear it won’t.” I think that’s perfect.
In one word, describe the Clemson win. Why that word?
Perfect. Why that word? The Blue Devils beat a Top Ten team at Wallace Wade under the lights on Labor Day. I was fortunate enough to be there. The whole thing was perfect.
In one word, describe the Virginia loss. Why that word?
****. Why that word? Did you watch the game?
Which Avenger is most like Coach Taylor?
Not a Marvel guy, so I can’t answer this one. I’d go to DC, but the explanation will take too long. Instead of comparing Trooper to an Avenger or a Justice League member, I’ll detour into my preferred area of Roman history and say that Trooper makes me think of Cincinnatus, the legendary Roman dictator who voluntarily relinquished power twice. After becoming dictator, Cincinnatus stabilized Rome, defeated its enemies and secured its future before returning power to the Senate. That’s what Trooper has done twice now – first as interim coach after David Cutcliffe and again after Mike Elko. Trooper is a great guy who has meant a lot to the program.
Well, that’s not the answer we were expecting, but then again, Duke is known for their academics.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Chandler Rivers, Tre Freeman and DeWayne Carter. Rivers is that guy in the secondary. He can make plays and shut people down. Freeman has the speed and power to get to the QB and stop the run game. And DeWayne Carter is DeWayne Carter.
When Duke snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
A lot of running plays. And if Duke isn’t runing the ball, the ball will be in the hands of Jordan Moore. Moore is electric and has the capacity to make a big play every time he touches the ball.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
The staff will let Grayson Loftis run the ball and take advantage of the RPO scheme. Because of the injuries to Riley Leonard and Henry Belin, Loftis wasn’t allowed to run much. If Loftis starts making plays on the ground in addition to the air, it could be another bowl championship for the Blue Devils.
What chicken joint is most associated with the team, college, fanbase or city? If not chicken, BBQ?
Full confession – I live in Roanoke, Virginia, and not in Durham. So, don’t take the following as gospel. That said, we got great BBQ from The Original Q Shack and Picnic Durham for our tailgates this year.
I don’t live in Alabama, so you’re forgiven.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
Are there any parts of the team you’re concerned about going into the game?
The short answer is no. Jon Sumrall was classy enough to leave our guys alone until this weekend. There are a few names in the portal, the most notable being Jayden McDonald, but the majority of the team is finishing out the season together.
I guess if I had to give you a real answer, it would be energy. Joe’s play-calling will be fine, and the staff knows how to make halftime adjustments. I’m not worried, but I want to see Coach Gas put the pedal down, so to speak.
That question raises what I think is the biggest question for both teams: what players are *not* suiting up Saturday?
The Fayette Observer has a running list of transferring Duke players, and here’s who they have at press time:
| Player | Position | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Leonard | QB | 7* |
| Jordan Waters | RB | 12 |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | 10 |
| Aeneas Peebles | DT | 12 |
| RJ Oben | DE | 12 |
| Charlie Ham | K | 11 |
| Jayden Watkins | CB | 1 |
That’s a starting quarterback, running back and linebacker all gone.
Meanwhile, here’s Troy’s transfer chart, per Twitter.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Jayden McDonald | LB |
| Zach Long | K |
| Jeremiah Frazier | OL |
| Kobe Williams | OL |
| Blake Matthews | LB |
| Jackson Stein | DT |
| Elliot Janish | P |
There’s an equal amount of talent on these lists, but there’s an unequal amount of impact. Riley Leonard was injured, but he was the day 1 starter at quarterback.
Jordan Waters is the statistical rushing leader, and Dorian Mausi is the team’s No. 3 tackler.
On the surface, that makes the comparison charts feel out of date. That said, backup quarterback Grayson Loftis and No. 2 rusher Jaquez Moore are not far enough behind statistically for me to rule these numbers out completely.
Let’s start with the Blue Devils’ stat comparison.
| Stat | Per Game | Rank | Comparable team | TROY stat against comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 180.67 ypg | 110 | ULM (112) | 243 yds. |
| Rushing Offense | 168.9 ypg | 54 | Georgia State (50) | 105 yds. |
| Scoring Offense | 27.75 ppg | 60 | Arkansas State (60) | 3 pts. |
| Passing Defense | 208.25 ypg | 41 | South Alabama (42) | 276 yds. |
| Rushing Defense | 146.3 ypg | 54 | Georgia State (51) | 154 yds. |
| Scoring Defense | 19.75 ppg | 21* | Army (28) | 19 pts. |
Riley Leonard or no, Duke’s passing game is awful. It’s also clearly second fiddle to the run game, which is also missing its 1a player.
Troy gave up 243 yards passing to ULM, but it kept the Warhawks to 66 yards rushing and sacked Jiya Wright nine times (The most by any Sun Belt team in one game this season).
That’s going to be a tall task, as Duke is tied for No. 20 in the country, only allowing 1.25 sacks a game.
Much like ULM, Troy focused on stopping the run against Georgia State… and succeeded. That’ll still be the first step of the gameplan defensively, but this is the point where the missing players start to make a difference.
Duke’s two-headed running machine will break down to a three-headed machine, with Grayson Loftis, Jacquez Moore and either Jaylen Coleman’s last hurrah or Peyton Jones. So maybe a four-headed machine.
Whether it’s an option-based attack (Army) or a quarterback with wheels (would you look at that, Georgia State), Troy’s run defense is facing a favorable opponent.
But that’s how ULM succeeded in moving the ball against Troy. The Warhawks chewed up yardage by spreading the ball and chewing up 30, 49, 58 and 52-yard drives in the first half.
Duke will not be as easy to shut down.
The good news is Duke’s defense, even with all its players, will also bend as much as Georgia State or South Alabama. It’s given up either 200 yards passing or 150 yards in six of the last eight games, and the four games it did both… it lost.
The only other loss came from giving Louisville more than 200 yards on the ground.
If you haven’t paid attention, Troy is… pardon me… was undefeated under Jon Sumrall in games it broke 100 yards rushing. Troy’s only loss with more than 30 rushing attempts was Ole Miss in week 1 last year.
This year’s 2013 opponent is clearly less stingy, but it also doesn’t have to face a fully realized Kimani Vidal.
Speaking of which, how do Troy’s stats compare to Duke’s opponents?
| Stat | Per Game | Rank | Comparable team | DUKE stat against comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 267.9 ypg | 31 | FSU (43) | 268 yds.* |
| Rushing Offense | 158.4 ypg | 63 | FSU (66) | 152 yds. |
| Scoring Offense | 31.2 ppg | 42 | Louisville (43) | 23 pts. |
| Passing Defense | 202.9 ypg | 32 | Louisville (37) | 151 yds. |
| Rushing Defense | 103.5 ypg | 14 | Louisville (12) | 51 yds. |
| Scoring Defense | 17.15 ppg | 10 | Notre Dame (8) | 14 pts. |
Those are some damn good teams to be compared with, especially considering the interim coach and new permanent coach came from two of the three programs on this list.
From this perspective, Troy should win by about 20 and shut down Duke at the same level as the best teams in the ACC. From the other perspective, Troy should pull away late by a few scores, as it does in most games.
Troy wins the turnover margin, but Duke gives up fewer turnovers in total. I expect that to be the biggest battle for Troy, at least offensively.
Vidal won’t have another 200-yard game, but this offense should get the job done against this defense more often than not. Duke’s losses bring down an already iffy offense, at least statistically, but Troy’s defense is absolutely its best weapon.
Of course, this is all rat poison. The game will be closer than Troy fans would like, but if this season is any indication, the party will start in Birmingham a little bit early.
Troy wins, 27-14.
Thanks again to the other Ben for the great answers. Follow him on Twitter.