The Other Side of the Wall: Southern Miss
Two first-year Sun Belt West teams coming off huge non-conference wins face each other in a budding rivalry that may ultimately decide who wins said division.
| Team | Southern Miss |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6 pm, ESPN+ |
| 2022 Record | 2-2 |
| Best Win | Tulane, 27-24 |
| Worst Loss | Miami, 30-7 |
| Troy’s Record | 3-8 |
| Last Matchup | W, 21-9 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 5th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 82 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 62.2% |
| Spread | -6.5 |
This is the third Other Side of the Wall I’ve written for Southern Miss for this blog, and I’ve already covered the history of these two teams (Spoiler: it’s not great for Troy). With the exception of South, I don’t think we’ve produced this much content for a single team.
But here are the links to all the stories you’re going to want for this week’s game, too.
- Other Side of the Wall 2019
- Other Side of the Wall 2021
- The New Neighbors: USM
- The Delta of Hate
- Dropping the Ball
Now for the analysis.
Southern Miss and Troy have each found themselves in a strange position. I’ll let USM’s Will Hall talk about it.
Like Troy, both teams have a nasty defense and a solid running back room. The problem is, both teams are finding success throwing the ball even if they don’t want to.
Last week, Troy figured out that run game against WKU and it worked for the first time. On the other hand, Southern Miss has struggled to run the ball since the Liberty game.
That said, both teams had backups step up and legitimately fight for the starting job this season. Zach Wilcke came in after that overtime loss to the Flames, and has thrown 500 yards since.
Offensively, USM scored 27 points against Liberty and Tulane, but only 7 against Miami.
On defense, the Eagles have given up more than 200 yards a game on the ground and 200 through the air against FBS opponents. Like Troy, they’ve held every team under 30 points offensively.
Here’s how the teams rank for each category:
| Troy | USM | |
| Passing Offense | 11 | 79 |
| Rushing Offense | 127 | 93 |
| Scoring Offense | 96 | 68 |
| Total Offense | 68 | 97 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 93 | 76 |
| Rushing Defense | 55 | 90 |
| Scoring Defense | 50 | 58 |
| Total Defense | 73 | 86 |
| Turnover Margin | 91 | 89 |
Three rankings stand out to me: First, how close the teams are in the turnover margin.
Second, Troy’s passing offense seems to blow Southern Miss’s out of the water. That’s good defensively for Troy, but the Eagles’ pass defense is actually five spots better nationally than WKU.
Finally the difference is the running game. Like Hall said, Troy is going to want to run the ball this week. Here’s why:
Troy is almost dead-last in the country, but it used the run well against the No. 39 run defense in the country last week. USM’s run defense is ranked in the 90s, so it may be a better matchup for Troy.
On the other side of the ball, Southern Miss has a No. 93 rushing offense going against the No. 55 run defense in the country.
The bottom line is this may be a watered-down version of last week’s WKU game—very similar teams with very similar game plans. In fact, Southern Miss and Troy were the top two teams in the Sun Belt in returning production this season.
Troy has a few clear edges, but it will still be a back-and-forth affair.
Then again, what do I know? Stats only tell you so much.
To help us get a better sense of what this Southern Miss team is really like, we reached out to our old friend and editor emeritus Scott Watkins, a reporter with the Sun Herald newspaper in Gulfport. Here’s what he told us.
Describe Southern Miss like you would a dog up for adoption.
Everyone loves puppies. Everyone really loves house-trained 1-year-old rescues who are ready for a home they can seamlessly transition to and provide comfort through the good and the bad. That’s where Southern Miss is right now. Buy the rescue.
I like that. Not many of our other answers have included ages.
What movie title best describes the Golden Eagles’ expectations coming into this season?
“Felix and the Hidden Treasure.” I was stuck on this question the longest and didn’t know exactly where to go here. I decided to look at the worst grossing movie of 2021 to find my answer. This movie made $153 domestic (It pulled in about $200K internationally) and I think it’s perfect. It’s about a boy named Felix (USM fans) searching for his father who disappeared years earlier (historical success). This may be a reach, but what are you going to do about it?
I’m going to point out that it has a 33% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is close to USM’s chances of beating Troy according to the FPI. I appreciate you actually working on this one though. “Great Expectations” gets so old.
Describe the Tulane win in one word.
Proof. I would say “cathartic” but that belongs to the Northwestern State game. While this win had its therapeutic properties, beating Tulane was more about proof of progression and proof that the system can work.
Describe the Liberty loss in one word.
Haunting. A bit dark, but it’s spooky season. Losing to Liberty brought out a lot demons USM was hoping to keep in 2021. An injured quarterback, full reliance on the “super back” and five turnovers. It was a brutal start to the year and left fans a little anxious heading into Miami.
I’d dare say they overcame it. Good to get that out of your system early.
Which Hogwarts house is Will Hall in?
Hufflepuff. I think humble and creative is what works here. Hall openly takes the blame when times are tough, but still finds ways to adapt and compete at the same time.
This was one I think I predicted at the start of the season. Good Hufflepuff coaches make for really good team chemistry.
What are three names on USM’s defense Troy fans should pay attention to?
Safety Malik Shorts, linebacker Santrell Latham and D-lineman Jalen Williams. Shorts and Latham are the figureheads of their position groups while Williams is an immediate-impact transfer who has lived in opponent’s backfield.
I’d pencil Williams in for two sacks, then. I’m interested to see how this run game stacks up to the Eagles’ defense.
When USM snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
An attempt to establish the run. That’s been a challenge for USM, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying. The Golden Eagles have 63 first-and-second-down runs in four games and are averaging 3.5 yards a pop on those downs.
That’s “cloud of dust” territory. It makes a huge difference.
If we wake up on Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
Southern Miss’ offense scored at least three times. This could be a low-scoring game, whoever finds the end zone at least three times will have a close-to 100 percent chance of winning.
I’d have to say four, or the first one to score 30. These are stingy defenses.
What do fans expect the Eagles to be doing in December?
Bowling. I thought USM had a chance to bowl even if it went 1-3 in non-con play. It went 2-2. It would represent a monumental step forward in the rebuild, but bowling is well within the realm of possibility.
That’s three teams in the West now that are looking to make a bowl after dismal seasons last year. I’ll take it.
What is the best BBQ joint in town? (Even if Troy is at home?)
Oof, tough call for me to make right now. The fans and locals would know far more than I, a Coast dweller, would. By the time Troy makes the return trip I’ll have my No. 1 ready.
I’m holding you to it.
Is Southern Miss a Coke or Pepsi school?
If the press box offerings are any indication, Coke.
That’s usually a good indicator in my opinion. Troy is 3-1 against Coke schools, and 0-1 against Pepsi schools.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
Sure, here’s a tough one: What’s the injury situation right now? What’s the quarterback situation? Are they scanning student I.D.’s at the gate (not that I need to know)? Whoops, that was three.
1. Luis Medina and Deyunkrea Lewis are out indefinitely. Caleb Ransaw is not back this week. Everyone else should be fine, but Gunnar may not start, either.
2. Just answered that, I guess. Gunnar is probable, but I don’t think we’d be in a bad spot if Jarret started.
3. Can neither confirm nor deny.
For once, Troy is favored against an FBS opponent. Both teams are undefeated against the spread for FBS teams.
The problem is, the Eagles want to play spoiler just like Troy did against WKU. Troy cannot overlook this matchup, and honestly, as winnable as most of the remaining games are, it cannot overlook any opponent down the stretch.
This isn’t a conference test, it’s a building block for a divisional crown… and that team in Hattiesburg has a bigger chip on its shoulder than Troy.
That said, Troy has more talent on paper. Expect the Trojans to put it away at some point, probably late.
Final prediction: Troy 27, USM 17.
Again, special thanks to Scott. You know where to find him on Twitter.