The Other Side of the Wall: Sun Belt Championship Edition
Can you believe it? Troy is not only in the conference championship game, it is HOSTING the game.
That’s a massive advantage in such an important game. The Trojans are fighting to break their own record for most Sun Belt titles, and the Chants are looking to win their first non-COVID title.
There’s plenty here to break down, so let’s get into it.
| Team | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 2:30 pm, ESPN |
| 2022 Record | 9-2, 6-2 |
| Best Win | Marshall, 24-13 |
| Worst Loss | James Madison, 47-7 |
| Troy’s Record | 2-3 |
| Last Matchup | L, 28-35 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 2nd SBC East |
| FPI Rank | 88 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 73.9% |
| Spread (At open) | -8 |
When the Chanticleers joined the Sun Belt, they were the bottom dwellers. In the last three years, with the help of Grayson McCall, coach Jamey Chadwell turned the Chants into perennial conference contenders.
The Trojans’ fall coincided with the Chants’ rise, but Troy managed to keep the series competitive, even when the Chants won the divided 2020 title.
| Year | Winner | Score | Diff. | CCU record | Troy record | Conference Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Coastal | 28-35 | -7 | 11-2 | 5-7 | Louisiana |
| 2020 | Coastal | 38-42 | -4 | 11-1 | 5-6 | Coastal Carolina/Louisiana |
| 2019 | Coastal | 35-36 | -1 | 5-7 | 5-7 | Appalachian State |
| 2018 | Troy | 45-21 | +24 | 5-7 | 10-3 | Appalachian State |
| 2017 | Troy | 42-17 | +25 | 3-9 | 11-2 | Troy |
The Troy players who endured the last three seasons are more than familiar with Coastal, and they’re gunning for three years’ worth of revenge.
This year, the stakes are higher than ever, and the teams are on the most even footing they’ve ever been—if you don’t count 2019.
| Troy | Coastal | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 50 | 54 | +4 |
| Rushing Offense | 99 | 57 | -42 |
| Scoring Offense | 88 | 60 | -28 |
| Total Offense | 82 | 49 | +33 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 26 | 123 | +97 |
| Rushing Defense | 22 | 39 | +17 |
| Scoring Defense | 8 | 89 | +81 |
| Total Defense | 16 | 97 | +79 |
| Turnover Margin | 70 | 21 | +49 |
Okay, maybe 2019 was closer. Troy’s defense, clearly one of the best in the country, is far and away the strongest unit on the field. Coastal’s defense, despite having talented players like D’Jordan Strong and TJ Killen, is weaker than Troy’s offense, at least on paper.
Coastal allowed more than 200 yards on the ground exactly three times: Army (202), Old Dominion (323) and James Madison (215).
The clear outlier is the nasty triple option team from West Point. Apart from the Knights, Coastal has allowed at least 200 yards through the air each game.
This lines up well for a Troy squad that is literally averaging more than 200 yards on the ground the last two games. Sure it’s cherry-picking… but someone has to do it.
On the other hand, while Troy’s offense has shown considerable improvement (we’ve literally written an article about it), it’s still far behind Coastal’s squad.
At least, it might be. The Chants are missing an important piece of the puzzle… Grayson McCall.
McCall, the starting quarterback for the past three seasons, the NFL prospect and the 2020 Conference Player of the Year, injured his foot against Appalachian State. He was ruled out for three to six weeks, and that was three weeks ago.
This week, Chadwell said McCall is out of the boot and ready to practice, but there are only two days left for that to happen. Wednesday he told several outlets “if the game was today, it’s a no.”
Here’s what they would be missing:
| Stat | Total | McCall | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Attempts | 191 | 168 | 87.96% |
| Passing Completions | 295 | 244 | 82.71% |
| Passing Yards | 2669 | 2314 | 86.70% |
| Passing Touchdowns | 23 | 21 | 91.30% |
| Rushing Attempts | 445 | 76 | 17.08% |
| Rushing Yards | 1831 | 165 | 9.01% |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 18 | 4 | 22.22% |
| Wins | 9 | 8 | 88.88% |
Now, obviously that just shows he’s a really good starting quarterback. It’s important to put these numbers into context though.
What did the offense, especially the passing game, look like without McCall? What’s the exact statistical value that he brought to the table?
We only have two games of data, but here are the stats:
| Stat | Avg/Game | With McCall | w/o McCall | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Attempts | 26.82 | 28.22 | 20.5 | -7.72 |
| Pass Comp. Percentage | 63.92% | 67.50% | 47.82% | -19.68% |
| Passing Yards | 242.64 | 265 | 142 | -123 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 2.09 | 2.44 | 0.5 | -1.94 |
| Total Yards | 409.1 | 439.6 | 272 | -167.6 |
| Total Touchdowns | 3.73 | 4.11 | 2 | -2.11 |
Coastal Carolina without Grayson McCall passed for more than 100 fewer yards, scored nearly two fewer passing touchdowns and dropped 20% more passes. Imagine being told your team will go from catching two out of every three passes… to fewer than half of them.
Its offense as a whole recorded 167 fewer yards and scored two fewer touchdowns.
Again, this is just two games of data, but we’ve compared JMU and USM’s defenses to Troy’s before. The Trojans are equally stout, if not more so.
If Grayson McCall is out, this Coastal offense is going to struggle. That’s the bottom line.
But this team is more than just one quarterback.
For deeper insight into this Coastal team we reached out to The Strut Podcast. We shook up our standard set of questions for this championship preview.
Describe Coastal Carolina like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
If you’re looking to adopt CCU, I would say that Coastal is unique by comparison because we are building our identity. We’re young, good, but also finding our voice. Come grow with us.
Early success is definitely a defining characteristic. I’m impressed with how well your program adapted.
What movie title best describes the Chants’ accomplishments at this point in the season?
The movie title that best describes us would be School of Rock. No reason. We just rock and people should know it.
It is an underrated movie, and Jack Black is my hero.
In one word, describe the App State win. Why that word?
The App St win word is vindication. We told people we were going to begin the domination and it’s starting.
This game has in fact determined the East champion each year Coastal has been at this level.
In one word, describe the JMU loss. Why that word?
The JMU loss was sobering. We learned a lot. We are growing still, we have a very young and talented team.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
- JT Killen (LB; 89 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble)
- Jerrod Clark (NT; 39 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 QB hurries)
- Shane Bruce (LB; 45 tackles, 2 QB hurries)
- They find the ball.
Notice they didn’t even mention DB D’Jordan Strong or preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Josaiah Stewart.
When Coastal snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Controlled chaos. We like to think you’re going to have to stop us.
It’s true though. McCall or no, they run a run-pass triple option attack, which combines Army’s run game and Western Kentucky’s pass game… at least on a good day.
If we wake up Sunday and the Chants win, what happened the day before?
We committed fewer penalties and turnovers. Tackled well and converted 3rd down.
Clean football. It’s what we expect on both sides. I do agree that both teams will be focusing on minimizing mistakes.
What bowl game would y’all like to play in?
Rose, Sugar, Orange…but will settle for New Orleans! Ha!
I’m here for it! Aim high! But yeah, New Orleans is likely for y’all.
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even if Troy is at home)?
Prosser’s or any vinegar based BBQ place is good. Keep that mustard crap.
What? No menu? That’s a huge green flag honestly. Here’s the Yelp page, though.
Is Coastal a Coke or Pepsi school?
Pepsi.
Oh.
Oh no.
Troy’s only game against a Pepsi school was App State. The Trojans are 10-1 against Coke schools.
This is not good, actually.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
My question for you guys is how do you feel about our loss versus JMU? What does it tell you about us?
We kinda went through a lot of that above, but the main takeaway is that running the ball well will make a difference.
Troy has been doing a lot of that the past two weeks, but Coastal’s defense is at least somewhat better than the two teams Troy just pummeled.
It honestly didn’t tell us a lot about McCall, for the same reasons we mentioned above (TL;DR – not enough data) but it at least gives us hope that Coastal is a beatable team either way.
The Trojans will likely be prepared defensively for Coastal, McCall or no. That’s a major factor, but the strong defense is a constant.
On the other side of the ball, James Madison exposed a lot of holes in Coastal’s defense. As well as the offense has trended, I’m hoping this team can keep it close in the first half before turning on the jets late.
Final prediction: 31-20 Troy.
Again, special thanks to The Strut Podcast. You can follow them on Twitter here.