The Other Side of the Wall: Texas State
If you had told me at the beginning of the season that one of these teams would have beaten App State by 12 and the other lost by a last-second miracle, I’d have them backwards.
| Team | Texas State |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 2:30 pm, ESPN3 |
| 2022 Record | 3-3, 1-1 |
| Best Win | App State, 36-24 |
| Worst Loss | Baylor, 42-7 |
| Troy’s Record | 11-1 |
| Last Matchup | W, 31-28 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 4th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 110 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 84.6% |
| Spread | -16 |
The stat that stands out is that App State win last week. Texas State kicked off with a 24% chance at winning according to FPI. Then they went up 30-3.
There is no way this is the same team that lost to Nevada and Baylor… and James Madison. They found some sort of spark last week.
I smell a trap.
At the surface, these teams look similar. A solid quarterback picking up roughly 250 yards a game, and a two-headed run game that rushes for about 100 yards a game.
They both even work out of a pistol set. I mean, come on.
Sure that’s a common look, but that’s the App State game on the left.
On defense, the Bobcats have a stingy front seven supported by a secondary that bends but also snags the occasional interception. Both teams force mistakes and take advantage of them.
The question is… how well do they do these things?
| Troy | TXST | |
| Passing Offense | 16 | 67 |
| Rushing Offense | 126 | 120 |
| Scoring Offense | 96 | 100 |
| Total Offense | 72 | 103 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 72 | 62 |
| Rushing Defense | 30 | 45 |
| Scoring Defense | 34 | 67 |
| Total Defense | 43 | 49 |
| Turnover Margin | 65 | 90 |
So, yeah. The defenses are nearly identical, but Troy’s pass game is way more effective. Unfortunately, the Bobcats pass defense is its only real advantage over the Trojans.
Also, Troy is much better at causing turnovers than Texas State.
The Bobcats have literally gone back-and-forth in the win column, which is good news for Troy, but it also helps finding patterns easier.
For one, with the exception of the Nevada game at the beginning of the year, the Bobcats have passed for more than 200 yards in its wins and fewer than 200 in their losses.
The Wolfpack held Texas State to a single yard rushing, which is another method of attack. Much like Marshall, WKU and USM, the plan is to make the Bobcats one-dimensional on offense.
When you look at attacking Texas State offensively, there’s a clear answer: run the football. Often.
Let’s be clear. FIU is an absolutely dreadful team. The Panthers lost 73-0 to Western Kentucky… but they also ran the ball 22 times against Texas State, which is once more than App State did and three more than Houston Baptist Christian.
FIU is also the only team to score a rushing touchdown on Texas State… and still lose.
On the other hand, Baylor ran it 37 times, and the three teams that beat the Bobcats all hit triple digits in the run game. They all also scored at least four touchdowns on the ground.
Somehow this rushing defense is the No. 45 rushing defense in the nation. When it does well, it really holds.
So for another week in a row, we’re looking at a team that could be a mirror image of this Trojan squad. The fortunate part is this team might not be as deep.
We won’t know what the numbers really mean until Saturday though.
To help us get a better sense of what this Texas State team is really like, we reached out to Colton McWilliams, with the San Marcos Daily Record. Here’s what he told us. Follow him on Twitter here.
Describe Texas State like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
Texas State is similar to adopting a five month old Labrador puppy. There are so many things you can do with this puppy and the choice is up to you on how you are going to raise them. If you don’t put in the time and energy in working with your puppy, the experience is going to be terrible and you will be miserable as hell. However when you put in the time and effort to work with them, you will see them blossom into the best companion you can have.
Much like resurrecting this offense, house-training a dog suuuuuuuuuucks.
What movie title best describes the Bobcats’ expectations at this point in the season?
“Bring it On.” This team wants to prove to all the critics that this is not the same team as the past seven years have defined this program. Texas State wants to win and compete for bowl games, conference championships, and just be reasonably competitive. I think the App State win is a proof of concept of what this team could be.
I think a Kirsten Dunst metaphor is apt here too.
In one word, describe the App State win. Why that word?
Euphoric. This was one of the biggest wins in Texas State’s FBS history which includes the 2012 season opening upset win over Houston (This was also TXST’s first year in FBS) and the 2014 win over Arkansas State. Not only did this win potentially turn this season around but it might have saved Jake Spavital’s job.
I can imagine. They felt the same way when they beat us.
In one word, describe the James Madison loss. Why that word?
Underwhelming. Considering this was JMU’s debut season in FBS, there was at least a reasonable expectation the game was at the very least to be competitive. The offense just fell flat and the defense just could not make up where the offense floundered.
I get it. I’m still baffled at JMU’s immediate success, but this isn’t the place for that analysis.
Which Hogwarts house is Jake Spavital in?
Forgive me if since I’m not the biggest follower of the Wizarding World but I probably place him in Griffindor just because he is one of the nicest and chillest human beings I’ve ever met.
Oh trust me I’m not either. That sounds like a solid pick though. He certainly has the bravery part.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to.
The Bell Brothers Levi and Ben. Those two have made a major impact from the get go when they came from the transfer portal at Louisiana Tech. Both have combined for seven sacks and 53 tackles.
Sione Tupou is definitely the leader of the defense from the linebacker position and currently leads the team in solo tackles with 22. Definitely one of the heart and soul members on the defensive side.
Bragging on the front seven. I love it. I hate that it makes Texas State sound like Troy, though.
When Texas State snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
I firmly believe that the Texas State defense will give Troy fits and keep them in the game for the most part but whether the Bobcats can continue to improve on offense will be the major question, especially with that tough defense Troy has.
What this season in the Sun Belt has taught me is to expect the unexpected and I have a feeling this game will be no different.
I get it. Troy shut down Khalan Laborn. Layne Hatcher has more experience against Troy than many other quarterbacks though.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
The TXST offense has finally found their groove and has become the flamethrower offense Bobcat fans have been waiting for since Coach Spavital took over and are complemented with a sneakily improved defense.
The two App State games looked like similar shootouts, so this isn’t too farfetched.
What do fans expect the Bobcats to be doing in December?
Not an unreasonable expectation but Bobcat fans want to see their team playing in a bowl come December and not have to listen to talks about why their team is one of the worst in FBS. That App State wins definitely improves the odds.
I can assure you that Texas State has officially moved up a tier in the West. A bowl game is still well within grasp, but the Louisiana and Southern Miss games won’t make it easy.
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even if Troy is at home)?
Personally, I always like Black’s Barbecue. It’s kind of hidden within San Marcos and their food has always been killer.
Okay Trojan fans. Menu time. You had me at brisket, but I’m staying for the homemade sausage.
Is Texas State a Coke or Pepsi school?
Texas State is a Coke school and I absolutely hate it. Before I went to Texas State, I attended school at Texas A&M Galveston which was a Pepsi School. We got some absolutely cool stuff such as Mountain Dew A&M shirts while they would give away free MW kickstarts which I loaded up on.
Honestly the first time I think anyone has complained about having Coke. Fair enough though, Troy is 0-1 against Pepsi and 4-1 against Coke schools.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
With Jacksonville State making the jump to FBS, are Troy fans, administrators, alumni and such interested in renewing that rivalry? Why or why not?
I think it’s a coin flip. I honestly would love to renew the history between the programs, but with South and Southern Miss in the division, it feels like we’re good on the rivalry front. UAB and MTSU have grown distant, and that non-conference rivalry sheen has worn off. We will probably set up a series with them though, just to generate excitement for both programs. We’re keeping that bell though.
This is a solid matchup for Troy, and not one that can be overlooked.
It *should be an easier win than Southern Miss, but the Trojans have to stay focused. I don’t think Coach Sumrall will have any problem doing that though.
Final prediction: Troy 30, Texas State 20.
Again, special thanks to Colton. You can follow him on Twitter here.