The Other Side of the Wall: Texas State
Troy hasn’t lost to Texas State since 1997.
Things that didn’t exist:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Ravens
Charlotte Hornets
Furby
Google
Game Boy Color
Houston Texans
iPod
Lego Bionicle
Mountain Dew Code Red
Splenda
Swiffer
TiVo
Windows 98
And the entire Troy Trojans football roster.
Texas State has had six winning seasons since, and the Bobcats are going for their first back-to-back feat since 2009.
Troy matched up in two of them: 2000 (31-7) and 2023 (31-13).
Troy has had five head coaches since the series began. Texas State has had four in the last decade.
Historically, this matchup is a pencilled-in W for Troy. This year might be a little different.
| Team | Texas State (2-2) |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6 pm, ESPNU |
| 2023 Record | 8-5 (4-4) |
| Troy’s Record | 13-1 |
| Last Matchup | W, 31-13 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 1st SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 81 (+19) |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 44.4% |
| Spread | Troy +14.5 |
It’s been a rough week, after losing to a team that’s consistently a trap game. That makes this game all the more trappy, especially with the reigning conference MVP under center.
We know what the Trojans’ season has been, but the Bobcats are fresh off a heartbreaking loss too.
But how does that compare to the full season? After all, the Bobcats were picked to win at least the West Division.
| Stat | Texas State (Rk) | Troy (Rk) |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Offense | 157.8 (71) | 145.8 (83) |
| Rush Defense | 128.8 (60) | 175.2 (100) |
| Pass Offense | 294.0 (26) | 189.0 (99) |
| Pass Defense | 207.5 (65) | 188.2 (45) |
Despite a monster rushing attack led by Ismail Mahdi, last year’s Sun Belt MVP Jordan McCloud and Lincoln Pare, McCloud’s arm is the engine for this offense.
Texas State has thrown for at least 268 each game, with 12 touchdowns.
Thing is, that run game is how the offense lives or dies. I compared it to Troy’s offense last year, and statistically that’s still a relevant comparison.
The Bobcats got 40+ rushes for 195+ yards in its first two games, which were wins. The two-loss streak only saw them rush the ball 31 times at most, for 132 yards at most.
ULM was the first team Troy held under 150 yards on both sides of the ball. Thing is, we established last week that passing the ball would be a key to victory… and it wasn’t.
Texas State is a different beast, with the country’s No. 26 passing attack.
I know injuries have plagued the Trojans, but there has to be more pressure on McCloud. We learned last year he has the legs to flip busted plays.
Force him to make mistakes, and the turnovers will come. He’s thrown a pick in nearly every game, and the Cats have lost a fumble in nearly every game.
Texas State has 28 quarterback hurries, 15 sacks and two picks this season.
Troy has 9 hurries, 4 sacks and 1 pick.
Put pressure on McCloud, shut down the run. That’s how Troy’s defense will win.
The secondary will be tested, and with a single takeaway all season, the offense is going to be pushed to keep up.
Fortunately, you can use the same approach against the Bobcat defense: live or die by the run.
They’ll give up plenty of passing plays. Only Sam Houston State threw for fewer than 200 yards.
The teams that beat the Bobcats ran the ball more than 40 times for at least 100 yards. Little ol’ Sam Houston State put nearly 300 yards rushing on them.
The losing teams only ran the ball about 30 times, maxing out at 82 yards.
With two questionable quarterbacks (not saying either Caldwell or McCreary isn’t capable, at all) offensively the gameplan has to start with the run.
Thing is, Troy’s offense has to execute both sides to win. The only time Troy won is the game it ran *and* passed for 200 yards.
The Trojans came close against Nevada, and ULM held them to just 7 passes for 71 yards.
Balance leads to execution, and Troy offense hasn’t consistently executed yet.
Again, injuries are huge. I’m not denying that.
But this is what it will take to win.
Every time Texas State and Troy have met in a winning season for the Cats, the winning team scored 31.
Even Bill Connelly’s SP+ projected it.
Who am I to go against the flow?
Texas State 31, Troy 24.
Short week, short preview. I want to be wrong.