The Other Side of the Wall: That Team in Mobile
It was bound to happen.
I mean, at some point it had to.
It’s no surprise, in the grand scheme of things. Fortune smiles upon all of us eventually.
I think the speed at which it happened is the most shocking thing.
Y’all.
That team in Mobile… might actually be good.
I don’t want to talk about it… but we’re already five sentences and a colloquialism in. Let’s make it quick.
| Team | 🚫 |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6:30 pm, ESPNU |
| 2022 Record | 5-1, 2-0 |
| Best Win | Louisiana Tech, 38-14 |
| Worst Loss | UCLA, 32-31 |
| Troy’s Record | 7-3 |
| Last Matchup | W, 31-24 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 2nd SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 68 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 41.6% |
| Spread | +3 |
No one predicted the Cajun implosion.
This team was one regrettable play away from being undefeated with a win over what is now the No. 9 team in country.
Of course, that win was week three, when teams at least have their teeth brushed. Troy played No. 7 in week one, before the offense even got out of bed.
Still, that other team pulled off a massive win over Blah Tech, an insane last-second victory over the Fadin’ Cajuns and a too-close-for-comfort dub against chaos himself, Terry Bowden.
Much like Troy, that team is finding a way to win.
But how?
| Troy | 🚫 | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 17 | 23 |
| Rushing Offense | 125 | 59 |
| Scoring Offense | 98 | 29 |
| Total Offense | 70 | 28 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 67 | 66 |
| Rushing Defense | 25 | 12 |
| Scoring Defense | 25 | 32 |
| Total Defense | 32 | 21 |
| Turnover Margin | 81 | 4 |
Oh I don’t like this. At all.
You know how basically every week I’ve said these teams look like a mirror image of Troy? Defensively, that checks out.
I mean, just look at the passing yards allowed. And ignore, if you would, the turnover margin.
Notably, that other team gave up 371 yards passing to ULM last week.
So how do you beat them? By not making mistakes.
The other team seems to go back and forth with multi-sack games, they’re usually picking up a fumble each time, and they’re averaging one pick per game.
Hence the turnover margin.
That UCLA loss is the only one where the opponent had 0s in more than one category. ULM didn’t fumble the ball, but it gave up 3 sacks and threw a pick.
Central Michigan didn’t throw a pick, but it gave up 3 sacks and lost a fumble. ULM didn’t fumble the ball, but… you get the idea.
Much like Troy, the defense will let you beat yourself.
The main difference is their offense looks… potent.
Hang on, let’s do some comparing here. Where are Troy’s other opponents in relation to this other team?
| 🚫 | App | WKU | Marshall | Ole Miss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 23 | 28 | 6 | 112 | 78 |
| Rushing Offense | 59 | 60 | 77 | 21 | 3 |
| Scoring Offense | 29 | 33 | 18 | 83 | 15 |
| Total Offense | 28 | 34 | 16 | 71 | 14 |
Okay, phew. That’s much better. They’re basically App State, but better. The pass game isn’t as good as Western, and the run game isn’t as good as Marshall.
They’re certainly no Ole Miss, either, which means this isn’t the toughest test Troy’s defense has faced.
It’s the second toughest.
For once, the Trojans are going to have to battle a very balanced offense. The run game isn’t a massive concern, but as the WKU game proved, this pass defense can be stingy when it needs to be.
It’s also worth noting that save for one single play, Troy held App State under 250 yards and 30 points. Let’s not go there though.
The Mighty Trojan Death Machine held every offense to 30 points or fewer, but those four teams didn’t come with a defense as strong as that other team’s, either.
Did they?
| 🚫 | App | WKU | Marshall | Ole Miss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards Allowed | 66 | 50 | 82 | 46 | 33 |
| Rushing Defense | 12 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 68 |
| Scoring Defense | 32 | 81 | 45 | 17 | 16 |
| Total Defense | 21 | 28 | 53 | 13 | 34 |
There we go. Across the board, Marshall’s defense is statistically better than that team’s, and as I mentioned in the post-mortem for that game, Troy pulled off the win… over itself.
Four turnovers (including on downs) and a terrible third-down percentage bogged down the offense in that game. So long as the offense shows up, this is a winnable game for Troy.
Difficult, but winnable.
The question becomes, how did that team get so good?
To help us get a better sense of where this other team came from, we reached out to Doug Konkel, with JagsJungle, the 247 site for that team in Mobile.
It’s a shorter week, so we didn’t put him through the ringer like we normally would.
What is Kane Wommack doing to make this team so much better than any of its predecessors?
One thing, among many, he’s done is take advantage of something his predecessors didn’t have – the transfer portal. 16 new players were added through that route this past offseason and most are playing a significant role.
Beyond that, he obviously had been preparing to be a head coach for quite some time and knew exactly how he wanted to run the program, from assembling a support staff, identifying the characteristics he was looking for in assistant coaches and, most importantly, how and what sort of culture he was going to instill. His background of being an assistant for head coaches like Hugh Freeze at Ole Miss, Tom Allen at Indiana and previously at South Alabama under Joey Jones has helped him develop the philosophy he’s brought to USA as the head coach.
Being the son of a successful college football lifer like Dave Wommack doesn’t hurt either.
With the exception of that last sentence, it sounds a lot like Jon Sumrall. Both were bound for leadership roles, learning and preparing along the way, and getting the specific staff they wanted.
In one word, describe the Louisiana win. Why that word?
Exhausting. There are plenty of other words that would apply but I think that’s the one that fits best. Even though the Jaguars were the better team, ULL had enough remaining talent and pride to keep the game close. Between some mistakes made by USA and some questionable calls and non-calls by the officials, the Cajuns managed to tie it up late.
That wasn’t really a negative, though, as it put the Jags in a situation where they had to make late, clutch plays and they came through it with a win. That’s invaluable experience.
Can confirm. After App State, then Western, then Texas State, this Troy team has felt the pressure of having to pull out a late win.
In one word, describe the UCLA loss. Why that word?
There are even more words that apply to the UCLA game, not all considered acceptable in polite company, but I’ll go with Confirmative. Despite the late loss, this game showed that the Wommack Way is going to be successful. USA was probably out-athleted by the Bruins, but they were the more physical team and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say the South Alabama staff was the better group of coaches that day.
With one exception I would agree. I would however disagree about the “out-athleted” part. Statistically, South dominated. You get that by being physical sure, but there’s more to it than that.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to?
It’s a deep and talented defense, so picking just three names is difficult, but I’ll choose one from each level just to be fair.
I get it.
Defensive tackle Wykevious Thomas is a run-stuffer that can get some push into the pocket on passing plays. He’s the key guy up front.
Linebacker has a few luminaries but I’ll go with linebacker Quintin Wilfawn. He’s missed a couple of games with injury but he’s strong against the run and the pass with a great ability to diagnose what he’s seeing on the field.
In the secondary I’ll go with Yam Banks. He plays in the Husky spot for the Jaguars, the position in the 4-2-5 that has the most responsibilities. He has the coverage ability of a corner with the size and striking ability of a big safety or small linebacker. His impact in the Louisiana Tech game was a big reason USA won so easily.
What is the most likely thing that will happen when that team snaps the ball?
Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has made a concerted effort to run the ball this season and former FSU (and briefly Troy) running back La’Damian Webb has become a centerpiece of the offense. While they’ll stick with the run with Webb and the other backs, quarterback Carter Bradley has a big arm and will test defenses down the field with throws to Jalen Wayne and Caullin Lacy.
Applewhite bases his offense on the one that he helped Steve Sarkisian with when they were both at Alabama, so expect to see a lot of RPO. Bradley himself does not run the ball often, but on most plays he has the option to give the ball to a back or keep it himself and look to throw it, based on what the defense is doing. The versatility makes defending this year’s USA team much tougher than in the past.
Coincidentally, that’s what makes this defense so strong: versatility. The true test will be how it holds up against such a balanced attack.
This game was always going to be an important matchup, but the stakes make it even bigger.
It is crucial that Troy’s offense stays focused, avoids mistakes, and gets points on the board.
Punts and turnovers will not cut it. You have to assume the opposing offense will eventually wear down the Troy defense, even if it doesn’t.
Sure, Troy has won the last four games in this series, but don’t forget how close it came to ending last season. This is not a gimme at all.
Final prediction: Nope. Not this time. Go Trojans.
Again, special thanks to Doug. You can follow him on Twitter here.