The Other Side of the Wall: That Team in Mobile
What is there to say about this rivalry that hasn’t already been said? We have an entire section of our website about it.
Let’s talk about the painful thing though: losing.
That team in Mobile has only won three games against Troy: 2014, 2015 and 2017. Here are the seasonal situations for Troy in each of those seasons:
2014: Larry Blakeney’s last season, 3-9.
2015: Neal Brown’s first season, 4-8.
2017: A weekday game immediately after beating LSU, 11-2.
So the only time a *good* Troy team has lost in the last decade was in a hangover.
Otherwise, the West Mobile Wildcats have only beaten Troy’s worst teams since they joined the Sun Belt.
| Team | đźš« (2-4) |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6:30 pm, ESPN2 (Tuesday) |
| 2023 Record | 7-6 (4-4) |
| Troy’s Record | 9-3 |
| Last Matchup | W, 28-10 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 5th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 75 (-25) |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 26.1% |
| Spread | Troy +13.5 |
This is the highest spread to favor the Mobilians since VegasInsider started tracking in 2016. The only other time they were favored was 2022 (-3).
Troy has beaten the spread every year since its last loss, 2017.
This year, Troy has only beaten the spread against Iowa and Florida A&M. Similarly, the team in Mobile only beat the spread in its two wins.
To say these are two underperforming teams is an underperforming statement.
Let’s look at what we’re working with.
| Stat | đźš« (Rk) | Troy (Rk) |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Offense | 202.7 (27) | 130.0 (94) |
| Rush Defense | 130.7 (58) | 181.8 (107) |
| Pass Offense | 264.3 (37) | 202.2 (93) |
| Pass Defense | 310.3 (131) | 198.8 (46) |
ULM skews the pass defense yardage for Troy, so without their SIX passing attempts the Trojans average giving up 210 yards a game. That’s still much better but it drops them down to No. 61 in the country.
If you give the team in Mobile the same grace, or lack thereof, removing their 87-10 win over an FCS team makes an average 338.2 passing yards each game. That’s worse than the worst FBS pass defense… by a full 18.1 yards per game.
On paper, one should expect a shootout, and likely the team with the most mistakes will lose.
On offense, there’s a direct correlation between the way the Jags’ offense operated and whether they covered the spread. You know I’m being serious when I use their real name.
| Team | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Passing Attempts | Opponent Pass Breakups | ATS result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 33 | 150 | 26 | 3 | L by 14 |
| Ohio | 27 | 109 | 23 | 3 | L by 7 |
| Northwestern State | 34 | 363 | 15 | 0 | W by 77 |
| App State | 43 | 320 | 16 | 1 | W by 34 |
| LSU | 33 | 112 | 20 | 3 | L by 32 |
| Arkansas State | 33 | 161 | 21 | 4 | L by 2 |
If Troy is going to beat the spread—not even win yet, just beat the spread—it has to stop the run and force that team in Mobile to throw the ball 20 or more times.
Troy needs at least 3 pass breakups Tuesday. That’s not too much of a problem, as it’s had 2 or 3 against every team not called Iowa.
These other teams hurried Gio Lopez 3 or more times though. Troy hurried Jordan McCloud 3 times last game, and that was the most against an FBS opponent all season.
Also, Texas State torched Troy through the air, and each of the last three opponents have a long pass of 48 yards or more. That includes FAMU.
The pass defense example worries me. I need some hope.
How else does Troy stack up against the teams that have faced the Mobilians?
| Team | Rush Def (Rk) | Pass Def (Rk) | ATS result |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 152.5 (81) | 279.8 (123) | L by 14 |
| Ohio | 110.7 (34) | 221.2 (80) | L by 7 |
| App State | 208.8 (121) | 214.8 (68) | W by 34 |
| LSU | 127.7 (52) | 244.3 (100) | L by 32 |
| Arkansas State | 228.0 (124) | 232.5 (90) | L by 2 |
That’s better.
Every single one of these teams gives up more passing yards per game than Troy, even if you take out ULM. Alternatively, all the teams with a better rush defense beat the team in Mobile—except Arkansas State, which did it with a worse rush defense just last week.
This unfortunately leads me to think Troy’s rushing defense is going to be attacked.
The teams that beat South held them under 5 yards per rush. Troy only held ULM and FAMU under that amount.
The teams that beat South didn’t give up a rush longer than 22 yards. Troy gave up 28+ yard rushes to every team except ULM and FAMU.
See the pattern? Troy’s defense has to stop the run, period.
I don’t know if it’s worth discussing the other side of the ball because Troy’s offense is about to face literally the worst pass defense in the country.
The Trojans only have one interception on the stat sheet, and that’s because 1. Iowa is a monster defense and 2. a penalty against Texas State wiped the second pick out.
The team from Mobile stepped up its game against LSU, pulling down two picks. It also had three against NWST, but I’m only counting the other one against App to give them three this year.
Troy’s ground game has been hit or miss, as has the Mobilian rush defense. We know Troy is statistically more likely to win a game if it rushes for more than 100 yards, but with this year’s trends that’s more of a correlation than a causation.
Actually, the statistic this year is that Troy averaged 4+ yards per rush against ULM, Nevada and FAMU—the three games that closest to being wins.
It’s not just about running the ball, it’s about quality rushes.
The important ground to cover is the extraneous: turnovers and third downs.
Troy is No. 25 in the country offensively on third down, while the team in Mobile is No. 84 defensively.
On the flip side, South is No. 51 against Troy’s No. 99 third down defense.
That’s a slight edge to Troy. The difference on offense is much greater than the difference on defense.
Troy turned the ball over on downs twice against Texas State, and the only reason the Bobcats didn’t score both times was a Troy interception. They also took advantage of a fumble for touchdown.
The Jags’ only pick defensively all season was last week against Arkansas State. The Mobilians forced a fumble in that game too, but the beatdown in Boone was the last time they recovered one.
Troy is coming off its worst game in the turnover department, but again, Troy has lost three fumbles and one pick all year. The two teams are mostly clean.
That’s the very reason that mistakes will make the biggest difference.
A clean game offensively and stopping the run on defense will keep Troy in this game.
The Red Wolves proved last week that might be all you need.
Of course, it’s a rivalry game. Stats are meaningless, right?
Not this year.
đźš« 24, Troy 21.