Saturday, November 23, 2024
Latest:
AkronMid-American ConferenceTroyTroy FootballUncategorized

The Other Side of the Wall: The Akron Game Preview

Thomas Gleaton

Akron Zips Quick Facts

  • 2018 Record: 4-8
  • Conference: MAC (since 1992)
  • Head coach: Tom Arth (1st season, 0-3)
  • 0-1 record against Troy all-time
  • Last meeting: 2017, Troy W 22-17
  • Location: Akron, OH

Akron’s Offense

Players to Watch:
  • QB Kato Nelson
  • WR Nate Stewart
  • WR Dustin Burkhart

I’m afraid these lists are going to basically be the quarterback and receiving corps from now on, but that’s what happens when a team gives up 500 yards passing. Kato Nelson is no Jack Abraham, but that’s not an insult.

Nelson is incredibly accurate, but he’s also nimble. He makes plays happen.

That’s more than I can say for most of the offense.

I say most, because like Southern Miss, this is a running-back-by-committee team. That committee must be Nelson and his mama, because he leads the team in rushes.

Nelson gained 140 yards on the ground. The team has a net rushing yardage of 145.

Nelson lost 89 yards to make him the No. 2 rusher on the team so far this year. The Nos. 1 and 3 rushers have 98 yards net between them.

Also like Southern Miss, this is a pass-heavy offense with weapons.

Burkhart and Stewart lead the team in receiving yards and touchdown receptions, respectively, and the two have 564 yards between them this year.

It’s impressive really, especially since 217 of Burkart’s yards came in a career game against UAB two weeks ago. He shined extremely brightly in one play when he kept his eyes on the ball, caught it when it bounced off two UAB defenders, and ran it down to the UAB 14.

Nelson isn’t a pocket passer, but he may get the chance to learn this weekend. Regardless, I expect at least 200 yards from him.

The Zips Defense

Players to Watch:
  • LB Bubba Arslanian
  • DL John Mitchell
  • DB Jordyn Riley
  • LB John Lako
  • CB Randy Cochran

Bubba Arslanian may have the best name of anyone I’ve mentioned this year. He’s second on the team in tackles and tackles for loss (31, 1.5), and one of only two players with a sack. He’s an anchor in this front seven.

Lako leads the team in tackles (33). Mitchell leads the team in tackles for loss (2), and he’s got the other sack. Riley is the only player with an interception this year, and he’s tied with Cochran for most pass breakups (3).

This unit is solid, but the production is questionable. Akron has given up around 169 yards rushing… opposing offenses have only lost 21 yards total this season. For comparison, Campbell’s opponents have lost 41 yards.

Opposing quarterbacks have 300 yards passing each game—the last two quarterbacks actually passed the 300 yard mark. Through two games, Campbell has given up just 250 yards passing per game.

I’m not saying this defense is worse than the Fighting Camels, I’m saying through three games the stats are worse.

Breakdown

It’s not like Akron was blown out by world beaters, either. Illinois whipped the Zips 42-3 then proceeded to squeak past UConn and lose to Eastern Michigan.

Central Michigan got tossed around by Wisconsin 61-0 before taking out its frustration on Akron, to the tune of 533 offensive yards.

Akron has given up six sacks per game. Not total, per game. The Zips have coughed the ball up twice per game, and they’ve lost it two out of every three fumbles.

Akron is 12-for-46 on third downs. Akron opponents are 19-for-42 on third downs. Those numbers don’t seem like much of a difference, but they tell me three things:

  1. Akron is not good on third down. (26 percent)
  2. Akron sees more third downs than its opponents.
  3. Akron’s opponents have almost a 20 percent better chance of converting the third down than Akron does.

Finally, Akron is outscored by its opponents 103-19 in the first three quarters. The average final score is 39-16. This is an Akron team that cannot keep up.

This is a beaten-up Akron team, and honestly it reminds me of last year’s South Alabama squad: A first year head coach and a schedule that refuses to pull any punches.

Conclusion

I’ve made clear comparisons in each section, and honestly it wasn’t planned.

Last week’s loss was a measuring stick game, and it revealed a lot about this Troy team.

That being said, three things are still true for Troy:

  1. Run the ball to win. Akron may be the most forgiving defense the Trojans will see for a while, figure out how to replace B.J. now.
  2. Get pressure on the quarterback. It didn’t happen against Southern Miss, and he threw for 450+ yards. Do it against Akron, or get beat by a mobile quarterback.
  3. Don’t let off the throttle. This could be the most explosive offense Troy has ever had, and that’s after reading up on the best Troy quarterbacks ever.

Defense wins championships, but offense keeps you in games. This is the best week for Troy to solve a lot of issues.

Prediction: 45-21 Troy