Tuesday, November 5, 2024
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The Other Side of the Wall: The Arkansas State Preview (feat. Chase Gage)

Thomas Gleaton

This week, I’ve brought in someone who knows Arkansas State more than I do—Chase Gage from RedWolfReport.com. You can find his take on each matchup right after mine. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Quick Facts

  • 2018 Record: 8-5
  • Conference: Sun Belt (since 2001)
  • Head coach: Blake Anderson (6th season, 41-27)
  • 10-7 record against Troy all-time
  • Last meeting: 2017, Troy W 32-25
  • Location: Jonesboro, AR

Arkansas State’s Offense

Players to Watch:
  • WR Omar Bayless
  • WR Jonathan Adams
  • WR Kirk Merritt
  • RB Marcel Murray
  • RB DJ Chatman
  • RB Isaiah Azubuike

I will address the elephant in the waiting room in a moment, but let’s get the other stuff out of the way first. Wednesday night, Bonner announced he’s out for the season with a thumb injury to his throwing hand.

Even without starting quarterback Logan Bonner, his passing offense is absolutely every bit as good as Southern Miss’s.

Bonner found his footing almost immediately as the heir to Justice Hansen. It helps when you have likely the best wideout in the conference in Omar Bayless, but that entire corps is incredibly talented.

Bayless, Jonathan Adams, and Kirk Merritt should stand up against any secondary this side of Athens.

Marcel Murray and Ryan Graham proved the offense was more than just an air raid in week two, racking up over 162 of the Wolves’ 214 yards on the ground. The rest came from Bonner, DJ Chatman and Isaiah Azubuike.

That being said, there’s no question how this offense works. 50 of the team’s 84 first downs came from the passing game. State racked up almost three times the number of rushing yards through the air.

Last week I said Akron was Troy’s last chance to tune up. That’s because the next two opponents will absolutely challenge this secondary. Arkansas State is every bit as talented as Southern Miss offensively.

Yes, that includes the backup quarterback—I purposefully said talented. Chase will have more about him in a moment.

This is also where I bring up an important note: the game against Georgia skews State’s data. Take out the Red Wolves’ 177 passing yards against the Dawgs and State’s passing numbers grow to 322 yards per game.

Arkansas State’s total offensive numbers jump from 401.5 to 462 per game. This is an explosive offense.

Chase’s Take:

The passing game has been the obvious strength of the Red Wolves, but they just took the biggest hit possible. Though the receiving corps is as deep as ever, having a quarterback to get the ball to those playmakers is the key to the Red Wolf offense. 

All hope is not lost, though, as Layne Hatcher will likely step in to fill the void. Hatcher is a redshirt freshman transfer from Alabama, where he spent a year under Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts. Though Hatcher has not shown the same level of efficient as Bonner in practice, he adds a new dimension to the A-State offense as a dual-threat QB. Redshirt senior quarterback Carson Coats will serve as the new backup.

No matter who is playing the QB position, they will have plenty to work with. Bayless is an absolute stud, and needs just a single touchdown to tie the all-time receiving touchdown record at A-State. Alongside him is Merritt, the Sun Belt’s leading receiver a season ago. And that’s not mentioning Adams Jr., Brandon Bowling, or Dahu Green who has yet to see the field this season with a leg injury. Offensive coordinator Keith Heckendorf said his offensive strategy is simply to get the ball to the playmakers, and out wide, there are plenty.

The backfield is a different story. Murray (reigning Sun Belt Freshman of the Year) has struggled to stay healthy with an ankle injury, and backup running back Ryan Graham is out for the year with a torn ACL. Azubiuke and Chatman may carry the load in the backfield if Murray is unable to return this weekend.

The offensive line is truly the key to the A-State offense. They’ve given up 9 sacks in the past two weeks, including 5 in the first half against FCS Southern Illinois. If they struggle to give Hatcher time to get rid of the ball, it could be a long afternoon for the Red Wolves.

The Red Wolf Defense

Players to Watch:
  • LB Tajhea Chambers
  • S B.J. Edmonds
  • DB Darreon Jackson
  • DL Forrest Merrill
  • DE William Bradley-King
  • CB Jeremy Smith

Tajhea Chambers leads the team in total tackles with 33, but B.J. Edmonds, a Mobile native, is not too far behind him with 29. Darreon Jackson is third, though he and Chambers account for two of the team’s three interceptions. The third belongs to Jeremy Smith.

William Bradley-King is the next in the line of great State defensive linemen, leading the team in sacks (4.5) and tackles for loss (6.5). Forrest Merrill is a heck of an anchor on that line as well, coming in second for both categories (2.5, 3.5).

Bradley-King and Chambers lead the team with two hurries each. Edmonds and Smith have more pass breakups than the rest of the team combined.

This team isn’t exactly strong against the pass (1157 yards, 388 from UGA), but it definitely creates pressure. The defense collects 2.25 sacks per game (3 even if you remove the Georgia game).

State’s run defense is a bit more lacking. Even without the Georgia game, Arkansas State has given up 565 yards on the ground. The rushing yards allowed drop from 208 (112th in the country) to 188 (tied with with South Alabama at 104th).

Without that Georgia game, the defense gives up 256 passing yards per game versus 285. This Georgia game dealt a major blow to the team, and I don’t just mean stats.

Chase’s Take:

The injury bug has hit the defense almost as hard as the offense for the Red Wolves.

Jerry Jacobs was not only one of the best cornerbacks in the Sun Belt, but one of the most influential leaders on the entire defense. He’s out for the season with a torn ACL. Kevin Thurmon was one of the best interior defensive linemen in the conference as well, and he’s sidelined for multiple weeks with a broken hand. But, as always, it’s next man up.

The A-State defense has struggled in all but one contest this season. Even if a bad outing against Georgia is forgotten (they’re pretty good), poor showings against SMU (also pretty good) and SIU are a bit concerning. The Red Wolves had a monster defensive game against run-heavy UNLV, but have struggled monumentally against the pass all season.

Enter Kaleb Barker.

Barker is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, and Troy’s receiving corps is on par with A-State’s. That could spell disaster for the Red Wolves. Getting stops in the passing game will absolutely be the key for success for the Scarlet and Black on Saturday.

The defensive line has shown flashes of greatness behind Merrill and Bradley-King, but it has also struggled at times to get a surge. Getting pressure on Barker the same way they did against UNLV’s Armani Rodgers will be critical.

Breakdown

Let’s recap the players we’ve mentioned with injuries.

  • QB Logan Bonner (season)
  • RB Ryan Graham (season)
  • CB Jerry Jacobs (season)
  • DL Kevin Thurmon (2-4 weeks)
  • WR Dahu Green (??? against Troy)
  • RB Marcel Murray (??? against Troy)

I literally had the first draft of this article ready to go when the news dropped about Bonner. Losing him doesn’t stop the offense’s ability to produce, but it does create doubt that comes with any quarterback change—learning the playbook, adjusting to game tempo, etc.

Beyond that, Arkansas State is banged up worse than the Trojans. Troy has at least had a week to work D.K. into the starting job and figure out the other running back slots.

State is picking a starter three days out.

Even if we pretend all these players magically heal for gameday, the team has some quirks of which Troy should take advantage.

The Red Wolves are outscored in every quarter except the first, and opponents outscore State 28-11 in points off turnovers. State loses the time of possession battle and the number of plays run… even when running more plays against Georgia and only losing that T.O.P. by 30 seconds.

Chase’s Take:

Overall, this will be an uphill battle for the Red Wolves. At full health, I believe the teams are as close to evenly matched as any two in the Sun Belt. However, both teams are banged up, and A-State is missing too many leaders on both sides of the ball right now.

If Hatcher can step up and play like a veteran, the Red Wolves will have a chance. He’s bound to make freshman mistakes, and A-State has to survive those and respond. If Murray can’t go, freshman Azubuike will have to play like he’s been there before as well.

All road games in the Sun Belt are difficult, especially when playing a team like the Trojans. It will take a combination of great play by the Red Wolves and miscues on the other side of the ball for Arkansas State to leave The Vet with a win on Saturday. 

Conclusion

What he said. The Red Wolves are mostly battling themselves right now.

This is a “control the clock” game. Troy has the healthier team and stronger run game. The passing yards will come if Kaleb is protected, but the team with fewer mistakes will prevail.

Prediction: 38-28 Troy

Special thanks to Chase Gage for giving his analysis on Arkansas State this week. You can follow him on Twitter (@ChaseGage1), read his work at RedWolfReport.com and listen to his podcast Under Review (@UnderReviewCN).