The Other Side of the Wall: The Georgia Southern Preview
This week, I reached out to Danny Reed, the voice of the Georgia Southern Eagles, for his insight into this weekend’s matchup.
Georgia Southern Eagles Quick Facts
- 2018 Record: 10-3
- Conference: Sun Belt (since 2014)
- Head coach: Chad Lunsford (3rd season*, 17-10)
- 6-12 record against Troy all-time
- Last meeting: 2018, Troy W 35-21
- Location: Statesboro, GA
* – took over for Tyson Summers in 2017 when he was fired.
Georgia Southern’s Offense
Players to Watch:
- RB JD King
- QB Shai Werts
- RB Wesley Kennedy III
You know what? Southern has so many backs and so many different formations, I may as well put a list of their running backs.
I’m not going to do that though. These three are all you need to know. Southern runs the triple option.
Shai Werts will get the ball. He will keep it himself; hand it to J.D. King, a transfer from Oklahoma; give it to Wesley Kennedy III; dump it off to a fourth back that you didn’t realize was back there or keep it himself.
The triple option is a lot like barbecue. There are a thousand different ways to cook a hundred different cuts and types of meat, but at the end of the day it’s just the meat.
It’s very good meat. Always delicious. I will never not enjoy barbecue or the triple option.
But you gotta have something to go with it, even if it’s just some cornbread.
The Wide Receivers:
- Mark Michaud
- Khaleb Hood
- Malik Murray
- Darion Anderson
- Najee Thompson
- Colby Ransom
There are two positions between these six players… the wide receiver and the SLOT. I saw the SLOT guys generally had more rushing yards than receiving, so I asked Danny Reed, Southern’s play-by-play guy, if that was more of an H-back position.
Nope. The tight end position is their H-back, a position Kennedy played before he moved to running back.
Mark Michaud leads the team with 97 yards this season. Khaleb Hood is second with 65. He also has the second-longest catch of the season, a 39-yarder against Minnesota.
That ultimate distinction goes to Darion Anderson, whose only catch this season was a 45-yard bomb against Maine. Malik Murray has eight catches, the most this season, but the other receivers on this list combined don’t have as many as Murray and Michaud put together. Add in Wesley Kennedy, and you beat their combined total by one.
Colby Ransom had one nine-yard catch against Louisiana and a 10-yard catch against South Alabama. Najee Thompson’s four catches all came against the Cajuns.
If Georgia Southern does throw a pass Saturday, one of these guys is going to catch it, and there’s a 50/50 chance they pick up a first down. The team is averaging 10.2 yards a catch.
So to recap: the Eagles run the ball. Southern will only throw when it absolutely has to, and then it has a good chance of picking up the first down.
Keep one safety back the whole game… better yet use that “fire ant” playbook we all know Vic left behind.
The Eagles Defense
Players to Watch:
- LB Rashad Byrd
- LB Reynard Ellis
- LB Randy Wade, Jr.
- DE Dillon Springer
- CB Kindle Vildor
- CB Monquavion Brinson
- S Kendrick Duncan, Jr.
- S Donald Rutledge, Jr.
This defense is pretty stout up front, and the secondary is incredibly talented as well.
Rashad Byrd leads the team in tackles, followed closely by Reynard Ellis. Randy Wade leads the team in tackles for loss, and Dillon Springer has more sacks than any other Eagle this year.
Kindle Vildor and Monquavion Brinson lead this defensive backfield—Brinson is first in pass breakups, followed by Donald Rutledge, Jr. Another Junior, Kendrick Duncan, Jr., leads the team in interceptions.
Vildor, a second-team All-American, was invited to the Senior Bowl earlier this week, but he didn’t stand out statistically this year. Reed says teams haven’t been throwing his way, and he’s definitely a leader on this defense.
“He’s a terrific kid and a great teammate,” Reed said. “Quiet kid who sets the standard.”
Here’s the rub: this team is statistically great. Nationally, the Eagles are ranked 15 in first downs, 40 in rushing defense and 59 in passing yards allowed. Strong run defense, okay pass defense.
The little things are where the cracks start to show… especially against the pass. Southern has only pulled down 13 interceptions all year, good for 101st in the country. The Eagles are also ranked 100 in sacks, and 91 in team passing efficiency defense.
Southern’s opponents have a 59% completion rate but only 217 yards per game. LSU, Minnesota, Maine and Appalachian State all threw for more than 270 yards against Southern.
The Eagles are 2-2 in those games. They beat Maine by 8 and Appalachian State pulled off an incredible comeback in the fourth quarter.
Reed tells me the Eagles’ pass defense has in fact struggled against up-tempo offenses and by not getting much pressure—two things that could benefit Troy—but he also pointed out the Trojans have given up four sacks each of the last two games.
It’s possible that LSU is the only passing game of Troy’s caliber that Southern has seen all year (no offense to App State, they’re a run-first team). Regardless, the stats work in Troy’s favor.
Breakdown
The only two games in which Southern had the ball for less than 30 minutes were the LSU and Minnesota games, so another key to Troy winning would be holding onto the ball. Not just for the defense’s sake, but for the sake of scoring too.
In fact, of the three things Reed told me Southern had to do to win the game, “control the clock” came first. In the Eagles’ 45-10 win four years ago, they held the ball for 42:55—more than a point a minute. It’s the highest time of possession any Eagles team has had on the road.
The second thing was dominate the line of scrimmage. Southern “punched Appalachian State in the teeth” (Reed’s words) because the d-line owned the line of scrimmage. Southern is averaging eight tackles for loss each of the last four games.
On the other side of the ball, Reed says Southern’s o-line play (featuring two walk-ons and a guy returning from FOUR detached retinas) has really improved as well. The Eagles rushed for an average of 202 yards the first four weeks… that’s jumped to 337 in the last four weeks.
Need a stat to cheer you up? For each of Southern’s three losses, the opponent rushing defenses have been in the top 60 nationally… Troy is ranked 50. Appalachian State is next in line at 70.
If you want to say this run defense has been exposed lately… either Troy wins and this stat remains true, or Southern wins and overcomes a statistically good defense.
Southern is also 29-of-99 on third down… so almost exactly 30 percent. The Eagles have scored on 80% of their red zone visits… but only 48% have been touchdowns.
Troy has 10 more passing attempts per game than the average team the Eagles have faced, and two fewer runs. The Trojans are averaging as many passes as LSU threw against Southern in week one, and two more rushes.
The difference is the defense will look a lot more like the game against Appalachian State, where the Eagles used two 55+ yard runs in the third quarter to take their final lead.
As a matter of fact, Reed shared a great stat with me about the Eagles in the third quarter: they averaged 7.03 yards a carry in the third quarter last year (3rd nationally) and this year that number is up to 7.32 (again, 3rd).
“I don’t know what it is about coming out of the locker room, but we’ve found ways to routinely bust long runs, i.e. App last week,” Reed said. “Don’t know if teams have trouble getting readjusted after going inside or what but it’s been noticeable.”
Southern is going to run the ball more effectively than Georgia State, and thankfully with much fewer passes. The Eagles will hold onto the ball longer than State did, though, so while quick scoring is a plus in Troy’s column, it’s not something that should be the primary strategy… which brings us back to time of possession.
It’s going to be another close game… and we’ve been there before, haven’t we?
Southern on the other hand has taken care of business. Reed’s third key to the game is “play like there’s something to play for.” The Eagles dropped back-to-back games last year after beating App State… but this year should be different.
For one, their overall record is worse. Second, this team has already been in more close games than last year… and Southern has as many wins as it did last year.
The Eagles are 4-1 in games decided by 10 points or less… that includes a double-overtime game and a triple-overtime game. Only BYU has won as many overtime games so far this year.
When it comes to crunch time, both of these teams step up… only one has pulled out a victory.
Conclusion
The light at the end of the tunnel this season is starting to fade. If the Trojans want any chance at a winning record this season, they can’t make any mistakes.
Southern is going to run the ball all it wants, and Troy is going to throw the ball all it wants. Which defense will hold on longer?
Prediction: 34-31 Georgia Southern
Special thanks to Danny Reed for answering my questions and allowing me to annoy him on Twitter. Here’s a link to his website, a link to his Twitter profile is at the top of the article, and you can hear him every Saturday on the Georgia Southern Sports Network.