The Other Side of the Wall: The Southern Miss Game Preview
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Quick Facts
- 2018 Record: 6-5 (Appalachian State game cancelled)
- Conference: C-USA (since 1996)
- Head coach: Jay Hopson (4th season, 22-17)
- 7-2 record against Troy all-time*
- Last meeting: 2016, Troy W 37-31
- Location: Hattiesburg, MS**
* – 2016 matchup was third game between the schools since 1940 (1977, 2008 New Orleans Bowl).
** – This is the first time this game has ever been held in Troy. The 1938 game was held in Dothan, and the 1977 game was held in Montgomery. Besides the 2008 bowl matchup, every other game was played in Hattiesburg.
Southern Miss’s Offense
Players to Watch:
- RB Kevin Perkins
- WR Quez Watkins
- WR Jaylond Adams
- WR Jordan Mitchell
That first name should be familiar to anyone who’s followed Troy the last three years. Kevin Perkins transferred to Troy out of junior college. An injury sent him back, and he transferred from there to Southern Miss.
This great article from Patrick Magee of the Sun Herald shows his progression from walk-on to starter.
Quarterback Jack Abraham is accurate, and he has a ton of weapons at his disposal. Watkins returns after being out two weeks, but even then he’s on the depth chart behind Mitchell, who caught for 133 yards against Alcorn State—and almost 100 against Mississippi State.
Finally, Jaylond Adams gets a mention for his dynamic return ability. He returned both a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown in week one.
The offensive line has only given up three sacks this year. The top four receivers have gotten at least 11 yards per catch. This offense is 11th in the country in passing efficiency.
However, the run game is not so hot. The Eagles have only picked up 206 yards on the ground this season.
Put it this way, B.J. has almost as many yards by himself in one game (108) as the top two backs have put together in two games (109).
That’s not a knock at Perkins or his backup De’Michael Harris. Coach Hopson himself said “we’re growing. When we ran the ball, we ran it effectively.” It’s a team that needs to build up its run game.
Until then, it’s gonna pass the ball really well.
The Golden Eagle Defense
Players to Watch:
- LB Racheem Boothe (2017 Freshman All-American)
- LB D.Q. Thomas
- LB Terry Whittington
- DL Eriq Kitchen
- DB Ty Williams
I get the feeling I’m going to repeat myself here, so let’s get it out of the way. This defense is efficient against the pass, but the run game leaves a bit to be desired.
The Eagles ranked 60th in the country in pass efficiency, which is not really bad at this point in the year. Mississippi State only threw for 176 yards—its longest pass was 28 yards.
That being said, Thomas is the only player with an interception so far, and the team has only recorded three break-ups.
The catch? Pressure from a stout line.
So far, the Eagles have 3.5 sacks a game. Williams and Whittington each have two, and Kitchen’s only sack came against the Bulldogs.
Boothe has hurried the quarterback three times so far. Whittington and Kitchen tacked on an extra hurry each.
Against the run, however, Southern Miss has a few more holes. Before factoring in yards lost, opponents have gained 350 yards on the ground this season.
Let’s put that into context though. Mississippi State ran for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Its longest run was only 22 yards, but its top three rushers only lost a total of three yards.
The Bulldogs defined ground and pound Saturday, and it worked.
Breakdown
The important thing to note is that while this team has played two outmatched games, Southern Miss has been outmatched in either direction. Alcorn State is their Campbell this season. Their talent level is going to fall in the middle of the two games.
If that’s the case, the stats reveal two things Troy could take advantage of, and one that could be the Trojans’ downfall.
1. Mistakes and missed opportunities
I hate when coaches say “don’t turn the ball over” is a key to winning a game. Of course you don’t want to lose the turnover battle. I’m not talking about that though, I’m talking about USM’s tendency to make mistakes.
Even if this team doesn’t throw an interception Saturday, it will have thrown one INT per game this season. The Eagles lost the ball every other time they fumbled it.
They settled for field goals in three of the four scoring attempts from the red zone.
When I say Troy needs to win the turnover battle I’m not saying Troy needs to “not turn the ball over.” I’m saying Troy needs to get on the board when Southern Miss gives it away.
2. Failure to rush
Opponents have out-gained the Eagles on the ground by 42 yards. That may not seem like much, but when your top two backs only average 50 yards, your offensive line needs to step up.
Interestingly, Southern Miss lost the time of possession in both games, averaging 26 minutes almost exactly (25:53, 26:14). Again, that’s against both Alcorn State and Mississippi State.
One TOP is from quick scoring, the other is from losing possession. Regardless, those are systemic mechanisms that a balanced offense like Troy needs to keep in mind. The Eagles’ offense isn’t built to control the clock.
Bear in mind however, this could all change. A singular, number-one starter in Kevin Perkins could create some confidence on that side of the ball. Shutting down the run is still an imperative.
3. Surgical precision
Abraham has literally completed two-thirds of his passes this year. Pair that with the receivers’ high yards per catch, that’s an effective passing game in a gameday situation.
Statistically, that doesn’t stack up well against Troy’s pass defense. With two pass break-ups and zero interceptions, this is absolutely a measuring stick game for the secondary.
Pressure is another necessary part of the game. The Trojans will need another performance like that against Campbell—two hurries, five sacks—to ensure a success on the defensive side of the ball.
Conclusion
This is going to be a shootout game. Southern Miss has an explosive pass offense, and Troy has dynamic weapons on offense.
This game will be won in the trenches. If the Eagles’ run game steps up, the Trojans’ defense will have its hands full.
Whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. Just don’t turn the ball over.
In the end, Troy has the offense to stay in the game even if the defense is picked to shreds.
Prediction: 31-20 Troy