The Other Side of the Wall: ULM
In honor of conference play, we’re changing things up this week. We’re going to throw some numbers at you.
Take a look at these blocks, and think about what each pair of numbers has in common.
| 117 | 128 |
| 87 | 128 |
| 119 | 122 |
| 35 | 82 |
| 2 | 17 |
| 60 | 125 |
Here’s the answer. Each of the numbers on the left is smaller than its counterpart on the right.
If you’ve figured out that they’re rankings, congratulations. As a matter of fact, they’re Southern Miss’s rankings compared with ULM’s.
Here’s the full chart, with context and Troy’s numbers for comparison:
| Troy | USM | ULM | |
| Scoring Offense | 69 | 117 | 128 |
| Rushing Offense | 123 | 87 | 128 |
| Passing Offense | 51 | 119 | 122 |
| Scoring Defense | 8 | 35 | 82 |
| Rushing Defense | 26 | 2 | 17 |
| Passing Defense | 11 | 60 | 125 |
Southern Miss’s stout rush defense caused problems on Saturday, and its decent pass defense picked up the slack… in the first half. Troy’s offense is basically facing a much less fearsome version of the Golden Eagle defense.
No offense to the Eagles, of course, especially looking at the disparity in the passing defenses. ULM’s opponents are throwing for 339 yards per game, which is exactly the weakness Troy’s No. 51 passing game is built to exploit.
Troy is better than ULM in every category except rushing defense, but ULM’s opponents have only run the ball 51 times this entire season. Troy’s opponents have more than doubled that number (114).
Troy’s rushing offense isn’t much better than ULM’s either, and I didn’t need to look at stats to tell you that. Troy averages 2.5 yards per carry, which is perfectly fine if you never want to punt.
This offense has been inconsistent, and while it clearly has an identity, it’s not producing enough to be dangerous. The defense is literally one of the country’s best, but when your run game is the seventh-worst in the country your team isn’t going to be successful.
The biggest takeaway from all of this is that Troy has an even better bodybag to beat up on this weekend. Figuring out the run game would be a solid goal, but figuring out the offense is a must.
Enough talking about Troy. Let’s look at some more numbers:
| Troy | USM | ULM | |
| Third Downs | 31 | 111 | 122 |
| Third Down Defense | 54 | 25 | 89 |
| Turnover Margin | 35 | 111 | 2 |
| Sacks | 3 | 30 | 21 |
| Sacks Allowed | 108 | 128 | 126 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 87 | 63 |
| Fewest Penalties | 44 | 98 | 1* |
The trend starts to fade here, but its footprints are still visible. ULM is awful on third down, no matter which side of the ball you’re looking at. It gives up more sacks than all but four teams, so the Trojan Wrecking Crew will have a field day.
The standout numbers are turnover margin and penalties. The Warhawks are tied with Navy for fewest penalties, and they only trail Boise State in the turnover column. The best thing I can say about them is they’re disciplined.
Fortunately, the list of pros is short.
Here are the people you’re gonna see on the field Saturday.
- Rhett Rodriguez. He’s the son of offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez. Yes, that one. He got the starting QB gig over sophomore Colby Suits.
- Andrew Henry. Given the likelihood ULM won’t be able to pass, expect to see them carry the rock pretty often.
- Boogie Knight. Name of the Year finalist and top wideout, Knight is going to be Rodriguez’s go-to guy.
- Travieon Webster. Tied for the team lead in tackles, he’s their Carlton Martial. Almost as good, too.
- Ty Shelby. Leads the team in sacks. He’ll be coming after Taylor all game.
- Adam Sparks. The other team leader in tackles. He’s a corner, though, so watch for the blitzes.
- Kadyn Roach. The No. 2 running back. He’s the only guy to score a touchdown for the team this season.
Wait.
What.
That is SEVEN QUARTERS without a touchdown. Not even on defense.
You’re telling me there are EIGHT teams with a worse passing game, but this one hasn’t scored through the air at ALL this year?
There is no way Troy can let ULM score in this game. If the defense can hold Malik Willis to 21 points, it can hold ULM scoreless.
The offense will have too many opportunities NOT to figure out its rhythm.
Troy’s offensive gameplan is simple: do the opposite of what ULM does.
If the Trojans don’t cover the spread (-24 as of Thursday morning) then Troy’s offense REALLY needs help.