The Other Side of the Wall: Western Kentucky
Two former Sun Belt foes meet in a non-conference matchup, with surprisingly high stakes for the rest of each team’s season.
| Team | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6 pm, ESPN+ |
| 2022 Record | 3-1 (1-0) |
| Best Win | FIU, 73-0 |
| Worst Loss | Indiana, 30-33 OT |
| Troy’s Record | 9-2-1 |
| Last Matchup | W, 32-26 (2013) |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 3rd CUSA |
| FPI Rank | 43 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 18% |
| Spread | +6 |
Yesterday we told you about Troy’s history with the Toppers, and we even went in-depth on the first meeting between these teams, back in 1976. Suffice it to say that these teams are more than familiar with each other… and Troy has a commanding lead in the series.
Western Kentucky is an explosive team, driven by a good coach and a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder.
Let’s start there. Austin Reed is a name you should recognize; he led a little team in Pensacola to a national title, then transferred up to the Bluegrass State.
He took the reins from now-Patriots backup Bailey Zappe and sent Jarrett Doege packing, giving Troy the most experienced backup quarterback in all of college football… especially this weekend.
Since then Reed and Co. has surged, starting the season 3-1, earning a top-ten ranking in scoring offense, and setting a school record with last week’s 73-0 blowout of FIU. FIU is that bad, but don’t underestimate the excitement of a huge win.
The teams look virtually identical, schematically, with a pass-heavy pro-style offense and a stout defense with talent all over the field.
Unfortunately for Troy, WKU has the statistical advantage. Here’s how the teams rank:
| Troy | WKU | |
| Passing Offense | 10 | 11 |
| Rushing Offense | 126 | 62 |
| Scoring Offense | 104 | 6 |
| Total Offense | 73 | 11 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 52 | 73 |
| Rushing Defense | 74 | 32 |
| Scoring Defense | 49 | 37 |
| Total Defense | 56 | 43 |
| Turnover Margin | 106 | 5 |
Of course, numbers only tell us so much.
To help us get a better sense of what this Western team is really like, we reached out to Fletcher with The Towel Rack. Here’s what he told us
Describe Western Kentucky like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
If you’re looking for a dose of energy in your life, than look no further! This high-octane presence will keep your days exciting; you’ll never know a dull moment again! But do know, it isn’t all fun and games – everyone needs some downtime, even a nap or two. But if you’re looking for an injection of energy in your life, then look no further!
Super hyper, explosive, but also focused on controlling the clock. Love it.
What movie title best describes the Tops’ expectations coming into this season?
Boy, this is probably the worst answer I can come up with, but I’m going to go with Come and See (1985). We were all waiting to see what this team would look like – did the defensive issues get ironed out? Was anyone going to be able to step up and fill the shoes of outgoing statistical leaders like Bailey Zappe, Jerreth Sterns and Noah Wittington? Well, four games in, we’ve came and we’ve seen. (Also, if I may – go watch that film. It’s a slog but it’s powerful: Maybe the best movie I’ve ever seen.)
Well that answer blows “Great Expectations” out of the water (which we’ve gotten twice). It’s a Soviet anti-war film considered one of the greatest movies of all time. Incidentally, Troy fans will Come and See what the hype in Bowling Green is about.
In one word, how did the FIU win feel? Why?
Numbing
It may sound weird to be numb to a 73-point win, but two thoughts were simultaneously going through every WKU fan’s mind:
1) “Is this really happening?”
2) “Imagine if we had been able to finish off IU last week, what kind of statement we’d be making to the college football world.”
Not to speak for every WKU fan, nor even every member of The Towel Rack’s writing staff, but my mind had moved onto Troy by the third quarter, if not at halftime (after we got over the nerves of “get the starters out of here so we don’t risk an injury”)
I can imagine a blowout win like that causing such an existential crisis. It’s a stronger version of the emotion Troy fans felt as the Trojans stood up to App State.
In one word, how did the Indiana loss feel? Why?
Shattering
I almost did that very clever thing where I used the same word for both results, but I thought that was too cliché.
But yes, the loss was shattering. The Hilltoppers were literally a completed pass away from taking a 31-13 lead and cementing their first win against a Big Ten team in program history. Instead, it was a slow “This can’t be happening, this can’t be happening this can’t be happening,” until, what do you know, it happened. The way this season is looking like it could play out, that loss could be the difference between the Tops maybe ending the year in the Top 25 (with a conference title and bowl win under their belt, a respectable season nonetheless) and giving WKU a chance to be in the conversation for the G5 NY6 representative.
I’m going to do a very not clever thing and bring up the App State game again. The miracle aside, that reflection on Troy’s surprise success had fans also thinking about the postseason.
Which Hogwarts house is Tyson Helton in?
Helton is a bit of a mix between the two underdog Hogwarts houses. He’s not a “front and center” type of guy, excluding him from Gryffindor consideration, and he doesn’t fit the bill of any of the characteristics you’d normally ascribe to a Slytherin.
This leaves us with Hufflepuff and Ravenclaw. While you could make an argument that he is a cerebral kind of head coach and would make a fine member of the House of the Grey Lady, I’m here to argue he is a Hufflepuff through and through. He’s laid back, it’s difficult to see him get in fights or arguments with people easily and he carves his own path, especially as the Tops continue to lead the way in showing how to utilize the transfer portal.
Honestly the best analysis I could ask for, and it has the benefit of explaining the positives of being a Hufflepuff. Be warned though, the down side is an emotionless robot on the sideline, a la Chip Lindsey. Clearly Helton is a better coach though.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to.
This defensive unit is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory, so choosing just three is a challenge.
But, if I had to, I’d say: Jaques Evans (his nickname is “Donut”), the Tops’ leading tackler; Kahlef Hailassie, who plays something of a cornerback/linebacker hybrid and leads the team in tackles for a loss and defended passes; and Will Ignot, maybe the Tops’ most impactful linebacker (though he had a quiet game last week vs. FIU).
I’d like to put an asterisk here, if I may, and include a fourth name: A.J Brathwaite, who emerged last year as the go-to big-play playmaker in the second level. He wasn’t included in the three names because he’s missed the last couple of games due to injury. If he does play this week, he’s one of the Hilltoppers’ most important defensive players.
I’ll allow it. Hailassie sounds like he plays a similar role to Troy’s spear position, I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone nicknamed “Donut” that I didn’t like.
When WKU snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
The Hilltoppers’ offense is much more balanced, especially compared to last year when it was “Zappe drops back…throws to Sterns…”. This year, you’re likely to see a first-down rush, most likely from Kye Robichaux (who more or less cemented his RB1 status vs. Indiana), but a screen pass that essentially acts as a rush is likely too: That’ll most likely be put in the hands of Malachi Corley, who is quietly emerging as one of the most exciting receivers in the conference, if not the country). Second down could be a long pass or another screen, if the first down play didn’t work and it’s dealer’s choice on third down, so it could be a draw, a long pass, an Austin Reed scamper, they’re all on the table.
The one difference this year, when compared to last year, is WKU’s depth among its receivers. Last year it was essentially the Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley show. With them no longer on the Hill (Sterns went to Tampa camp, Tinsley transferred to Penn St). This year Corley and Daewood Davis are the headliners, but six players in total caught multiple passes against Indiana and all are capable of making a tackler miss and creating a big play.
Oh my god, it’s like looking in a mirror. Troy doesn’t run a screen on first down that often; it’s more likely to be a short inside pass. Troy prefers the running back by committee approach, but otherwise it sounds incredibly similar.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
A repeat of what happened against IU: Reed made a red zone mistake and it spooks the WKU playcalling into going as conservative as possible once inside the 20. We haven’t seen Reed, or the WKU offense as a whole, make a ton of mistakes between the 20s, so Troy is going to have to be aggressive if WKU is pinned deep or tighten things up and make Reed make a throw he shouldn’t when in the red zone.
That has been the only way anyone has stopped the Tops so far this year.
Troy got incredibly aggressive against Marshall’s passing game last week, holding them under 80 yards through the air. If the secondary can make a pick or two, that’s not outside the realm of possibility. It’s a matter of adjusting to a pass-heavy, high-tempo offense.
What do fans expect the Tops to be doing in December?
They’ll probably drop a game they shouldn’t (Austin Peay, Wright State) before they go on to sweep Louisville and South Carolina on the roa– oh wait, you’re talking about football still.
Ha.
At the outset of the year, the hope was to compete for a spot in the Conference USA title game and prepare to take on another top-tier G5 team in a bowl game. After taking IU to the wire and doing what they did against FIU (yes, they’re bad, but you can’t just waive away 73 points), I am fully expecting WKU to not only be in the C-USA title game, but to win it and hopefully take on a team like Coastal Carolina or App State (even if we played them last year) in a bowl game in the defacto CUSA/SBC title game. If the Hilltoppers get by Troy this week, there’s no reason not to think the Tops will win out, even if Troy kicks off the toughest and most crucial stretch of the year for the Hilltoppers. A win Saturday and the sky becomes the limit.
The way the Sun Belt West is playing out, Troy is in a similar situation. South and Southern Miss are the big battles left on the schedule, but the rest looks very winnable right now.
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even if Troy is at home)?
I had to outsource this question, as I have not spent meaningful time in Bowling Green in nearly a decade, but the near-consensus answer among the rest of The Towel Rack’s staff was Smokey Pig (2520 Louisville Road). A quick Google image search checks all the boxes: A stick-letter Coca-Cola menu, Styrofoam cups, food served in to go boxes. It seems to be the real deal. Maybe yall can report back after this weekend to let me know.
Menu time. I will absolutely be trying this place Saturday too.
Is WKU a Coke or Pepsi school?
WKU is, proudly, Coke. They were Pepsi up until December of 2011 (my freshman year) until they came to their senses.
Love to hear it. Troy is 2-1 against Coke schools, and 0-1 against Pepsi schools.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy (we’ll answer in the article)?
What is the matchup you think Troy has an advantage vs. WKU in? What is the matchup you’re worried WKU might have the upper hand in?
Troy’s front seven is one of the best in the game, so the “spooking” WKU issue is the goal. Troy got more sacks last week against Marshall than in the previous four or five games combined. Forcing Reed to make bad throws is how Troy wins.
I am honestly worried WKU’s defensive line will take over the trenches, getting pressure on Gunnar Watson and shutting down the run game. The O-Line has improved, but I’m still waiting for a dominant game from them.
Once again Troy finds itself the underdog, and I can’t help but wonder if Western’s explosion against a terrible FIU team is skewing the stats for them?
It’s Troy’s first real test from a passing offense, and it’s basically like looking in the mirror.
We’ve discussed how Troy’s offense needs to get better: play fast, finish drives and prevent turnovers.
Do all three and the Trojans can win this shootout. If not, WKU has the potential to run away with it.
Final prediction: Like I told The Towel Rack… Troy 24, WKU 21.
Again, special thanks to Fletch and The Towel Rack. You can follow them on Twitter here.