Sunday, December 22, 2024
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The Sun Belt Conference Bowl Picture

Thomas Gleaton

For many teams bowl season is the highlight of the year. Now that the Sun Belt has a title game, teams that miss that game have a second challenge to put a bow on the season.

The Sun Belt has five bowl game tie-ins. It’s possible a Sun Belt team makes it into an at-large spot in another bowl, but it’s not a common occurrence. So, I’ll be looking at the bowls we can count on being filled, as well as the teams that could fill them.

Bowl Eligibility

Currently Eligible:
  • Georgia Southern (7-1)
  • Troy (6-2)
On the brink:
  • Appalachian State (5-2)
  • Coastal Carolina (5-3)
Playing to get in:
  • Louisiana (4-4)
  • ULM (4-4)
  • Arkansas State (4-4)

Notice anything? The East has two teams already eligible and two with a game to go. The West has three teams battling for the last spot or two.

Easiest Remaining Schedules

  1. Appalachian State: Coastal Carolina, Texas State, Georgia State, Troy
    • They should be eligible this weekend.
  2. Arkansas State: South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, ULM, Texas State
    • Two games out, two winnable games. Texas State will help if all else fails.
  3. Louisiana: Troy, Georgia State, South Alabama, ULM
    • Should be at least 2-2 through these games.
  4. ULM: Georgia Southern, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Louisiana
    • It’s a tough road, as toss-ups are just as bad as guaranteed losses—unfortunately that Louisiana game is a toss-up.
  5. Coastal Carolina: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, South Alabama
    • They’re one win away, but that one win is at the end of the year.

For Arkansas State and Appalachian State, making a bowl game is simply expected. For ULM and Louisiana, it’s the sign of a good year. Coastal Carolina wants to join its Sun Belt brethren as the fastest team to get to bowl eligibility.

If it’s a matter of “who wants it more,” Coastal gets a spot on that alone. Arkansas State took last week’s loss on the chin, so there’s a bit of desperation in the Jonesboro air. The other three are just focused on staying in the conference title hunt.

All five of these teams could legitimately be bowl eligible. That being said, the SBC only has five slots period.

Speaking of the title hunt…

Most Likely Conference Title Matchups (ESPN FPI)

  1. Louisiana at Georgia Southern (29.62%)
  2. Arkansas State at Georgia Southern (25.12%)
  3. Louisiana at Appalachian State (12.35%)
  4. Arkansas State at Appalachian State (10.47%)
  5. Louisiana at Troy (6.44%)

This data is taken directly from ESPN’s FPI. I multiplied the “Percent to win conference” for each of the eight teams who are mathematically eligible and converted that to a percentage.

That’s the pure, unfiltered data. It hasn’t been affected by future outcomes yet. It doesn’t include Zac Thomas’ injury or even the fact that its own data has Arkansas State winning the rest of their games.

If you put the remaining schedules into the data, you get that Arkansas State likely wins the West with a head-to-head victory over ULM. I give the Warhawks the edge just on probability.

You get that the Troy-Georgia Southern game will decide the East. (No offense, Mountaineers.)

By the data, Arkansas State has a better chance of getting into the title game than Troy does, even though the Trojans’ chance of winning is higher. Adjusting then for future games, I have to go with this list:

Most Likely Conference Title Matchups

  1. Arkansas State at Georgia Southern
  2. Arkansas State at Troy
  3. ULM at Georgia Southern
  4. ULM at Troy
  5. Louisiana at Georgia Southern

The Eastern teams are all higher ranked right now. Statesboro, Troy and Boone should be preparing. Jonesboro and Monroe? Stick to the Christmas lights.

Bowl Game Predictions

As for the actual Christmas plans, there are a few precedents. Of course, the New Orleans Bowl gets first dibs, and they usually take the conference champion. Then the Dollar General Bowl gets the runner-up or next best record, then Camellia, etc.

If Louisiana is bowl-eligible, the New Orleans Bowl has been known to select them because of how well their fans travel… regardless of record. It could look like this:

  • New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana
  • Dollar General Bowl: Georgia Southern
  • Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State
  • Cure Bowl: Troy
  • Arizona Bowl: Appalachian State
  • eligible: Coastal Carolina, ULM

When looking at bowl selections, don’t assume that a bowl game will pick the closest team though. South won’t ever be in the Dollar General Bowl, for instance.

Troy also has a unique relationship with that Bowl. Being in the same state, its fans always travel well to Mobile. It’s only three hours. There’s a chance it looks like this:

  • New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern
  • Dollar General Bowl: Troy
  • Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State
  • Cure Bowl: Appalachian State
  • Arizona Bowl: ULM
  • eligible: Louisiana, Coastal

But, the easiest solution is always the best. If Arkansas State loses in Statesboro on December 1, as is projected, then the bowl selections will more than likely look like this:

  • New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern
  • Dollar General Bowl: Arkansas State
  • Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State
  • Cure Bowl: Troy
  • Arizona Bowl: ULM
  • eligible: Louisiana, Coastal

If you enjoyed this breakdown, check out my more in-depth analysis of the conference title race HERE.