The Sun Belt Conference Title Picture

We’re into week 10 now, and though the season is almost over, the divisional battles are just heating up. Here’s a look at either division and where each team stands.

East

Standings:

1. Georgia Southern (7-1, 4-0)
2. Troy (6-2, 4-0)
3. Appalachian State (5-2, 3-1)
4. Coastal Carolina (5-3, 2-2)
5. Georgia State (2-6, 1-3)

If Troy beats Louisiana this weekend, both Coastal and Georgia State are eliminated from the title hunt. The good news is that Coastal can still go bowling—meaning FOUR East teams likely will be eligible.

Games to Watch:

1. Troy at Georgia Southern (Nov. 10)
2. Troy at Appalachian State (Nov. 24)
3. Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (Nov. 3)
4. Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (Nov. 17)
5. Georgia Southern at Georgia State (Nov. 24)

There’s almost no way the Panthers will upset the Eagles the week of Thanksgiving (5), but up the road in Boone the Mountaineers have what could be their last chance to force a three-way tie (2).

That can only happen if Troy wins in Statesboro (1). Both of the Trojans’ biggest games in conference are on the road, at the end of the season. It’s a tall order, and though Troy proved last year it was up to the task the last time it was in Statesboro it fell flat.

Of course, all these games mean nothing if the teams lose on other weeks. If Troy loses to Louisiana, Coastal is still very much in it. Like Troy, the Chants must go to Boone (3) and play the Eagles (4) if they want to play for the title.

Unlike Troy, I don’t see them winning either matchup.

Head-to-Head Results:

1. Georgia Southern over Appalachian State, 34-14
2. Troy over Coastal Carolina, 45-21
3. Troy over Georgia State, 37-20
4. Coastal Carolina over Georgia State, 37-34

Outcomes and Predictions:

I give Troy the edge in Boone, but the preseason defacto Eastern Division Championship has lost its luster. Both teams lost their standout starters at quarterback, changing both programs.

Troy has the defensive capability to stop Georgia Southern’s run game, and pending injury backup-turned-starter Sawyer Smith showed his real potential against South this past week. Then again, that’s South Alabama we’re talking about.

Southern is the favorite at the moment but the Trojans still control their own destiny.

West

Standings:

1. Louisiana (4-4, 2-2)
2. ULM (4-4, 2-2)
3. Arkansas State (4-4, 1-3)
4. South Alabama (2-6, 1-3)
5. Texas State (2-6, 0-4)

Texas State is out. South Alabama is Lloyd Christmas asking the question, and somehow the most talented team in the division is third.

Louisiana and ULM control their destinies. That’s a sentence I didn’t think I would be saying. It’s possible the Sun Belt puts out six bowl-eligible teams, though.

That’s another.

Games to Watch:

1. Louisiana at ULM (Nov. 24)
2. ULM at Arkansas State (Nov. 17)
3. ULM at South Alabama (Nov. 10)
4. South Alabama at Louisiana (Nov. 17)
5. South Alabama at Arkansas State (Nov. 3)

If South Alabama wants any chance at causing the most chaos, they have to win this weekend in Jonesboro (5). Not likely of course, but the next two weeks aren’t completely out of the question.

Of course I say that knowing South Alabama is the punching bag of this division right now. The Jags have a better chance winning at home (3) than at the conference leader (4), but somehow they actually do control their own destiny.

Meanwhile, Red Wolves fans have had it. After being throttled by App State and losing a close game to a good Southern team, they basically soiled the bed against the Cajuns last week. Arkansas State has a chance to make up for it in Monroe though (2).

The Red Wolves have basically the easiest remaining schedule: South, Coastal, ULM and Texas State. All they have to worry about is the Warhawk’s visit.

As for ULM, they’re on this list three times. They’re easily the next best team talent-wise, and they have a chance to prove it after thanksgiving (1). That being said, they have the hardest schedule—in addition to these three divisional matchups, they host Georgia Southern.

Head-to-Head Results:

1. Louisiana over Arkansas State, 47-43
2. Louisiana over Texas State, 42-27
3. ULM over Texas State, 20-14
4. South Alabama over Texas State, 41-31

Outcomes and Predictions:

This is legitimately a crap shoot. Given the schedules and the probability of winning for each team, we could be looking at a three-way tie.

Arkansas State should win out, having surged its way into a conference title rematch that regardless of the opponent it lost last meeting. ULM has the deck stacked against them, with a guaranteed loss, a guaranteed win, and two toss-ups. Louisiana has the potential to surprise us, but they just don’t look as good as they could be.

I fully expect Arkansas State to reclaim their division but ULM has the skill and the control of its own destiny.