The Wheel of Realignment Turns Once More
As the Wheel of Realignment once again begins its spin through the world of college football, the Sun Belt seems to be ahead of the looming changes.
The Pacific Number Conference continues to reorganize and rebuild after its apparent decimation in 2024, when all members (save Oregon State and Washington State) left the conference. In 2026, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Utah State will join, giving the conference only 7 members—one short of the 8 needed for FBS status.
(Gonzaga is the 8th official member, but they are non-football.)
That is what brings us to this new chapter in the Wheel of Realignment. On June 15, 2025, Pete Thamel and Kyle Bonagura published a story on ESPN.com touting Texas State as the Pac 12’s next target for a conference invitation.
While many in the Sun Belt would question the move based on Texas State’s past performance in football, the move does make some sense for both parties. The Pac 8 10 12 7 would gain a foothold in the competitive, but vitally important Texas recruiting market.
Texas State will potentially increase their TV earnings from approximately $2.5 million to somewhere between $10-12 million. That’s a money argument that simply cannot be denied.
Assuming the deal does go down and San Marcos leaves, the question then becomes “Who does Keith Gill and the Sun Belt replace them with?”
Let’s dive into all of the potential replacement scenarios the Belt might consider.
First and foremost is the number of teams added. To maintain divisional balance, at least one western team would need to be added to replace Texas State. However, there is a scenario where three teams could be the perfect number for the Belt, to not just replace Texas State, but build for the future.
The most logical place that the Sun Belt leadership would look to pull a new member from would be Conference USA, a conference (no matter how voraciously its members defend it) is in the weakest position of the ten FBS conferences. If a few things fall just right, a potential new member could be drawn from the AAC as well.
Let’s go through some of the most likely additions from the Group of 5, no particular order.
CONFERENCE USA
Louisiana Tech
Curiously, in Thamel and Bonagura’s reporting, the main replacement candidate mentioned was the La Tech Bulldogs. While the location fits, as it is a western school, the logic of the move does not.
For one, this would put three teams in the state of Louisiana, something the Belt has avoided thus far in any state since it began 49 years ago.
La Tech would bring some competition in baseball and softball, but seemingly not much else other than regional rivalries, if invited.
Another knock for the Bulldogs is the perception that they are constantly looking elsewhere, trying to improve their position, without giving due credit to the conference they are in. Whether that is true or not, the notion certainly wasn’t dispelled by a comment by a former AD those in the Belt won’t soon forget.
So far reports say the Bulldogs are both being blocked by Sun Belt membership and also the favorites for an invitation. La Tech, it could be said, has Schrodinger’s conference invitation.
WKU
The Hilltoppers would be my personal favorite for admission into the Sun Belt. They were one of the Sun Belt Traitors in 2013 and 2014, though they were the last ones to do so.
Many folks in the Belt, myself included, haven’t had as much animosity towards WKU as they have had towards MTSU, FAU, FIU, and North Texas.
WKU would instantly boost the Sun Belt’s already sterling baseball reputation, as well as giving a boost in football and basketball as well. Not to mention bringing Big Red back into the fold.
MTSU
The Blue Raiders could be the sticking point of any deal to bring WKU back into the Belt. The two have essentially functioned as a pair since leaving.
Middle Tennessee already cost WKU an invitation to join a new conference, with the MAC in 2021.
The move could work for both schools, but if WKU keeps hitching their wagon to MTSU, they will continue to be left behind.
Jax State/Kennesaw State
If La Tech isn’t invited because the conference doesn’t want three schools in the same state, then these two aren’t on the docket either. Yes, there are many who would love to see a return of The Battle for the Ol’ School Bell.
I’m also hopeful that people would want to watch Georgia State versus KSU, but I’m not counting on it as a reason for bringing these two into the fold.
Liberty
The Sun Belt has prided itself on building a collection of public universities of similar cultures. As a religious private school, Liberty exists outside of that parameter.
I am certain that there are some fanbases in the Sun Belt East who would welcome this move, but for me and my house, we do not want Liberty. They will bring money and competition, but they will also bring controversy.
More importantly, the Flames would also break the three conference member guideline for Virginia as well.
FIU/NMSU/SHSU/UTEP
If the Sun Belt is okay leaving Texas as a way to reduce costs by shrinking the conference footprint, there is no way they are going to invite any of these universities. The conference would be stepping right back into a similar situation.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
ECU
While I might be in favor of adding WKU, bringing in the Pirates would be an absolute coup for the Sun Belt. ECU would bring a fantastic presence to the East and would instantly fit into the Belt culturally. Plus, that purple and gold look is just too nice to not admire.
The big hold up here is that the exit fees for leaving the American are about $27.5 million. The next question needing an answer if they say they want to join the Sun Belt is “Can they afford to?”.
Charlotte
This is probably the most outlandish possibility out there, but I think that Charlotte could be the dark horse for inclusion in the Belt, but only if a couple of dominoes fall first. The first domino that needs to fall will be discussed when we get to Memphis/Tulane/UTSA.
The second domino that would need to fall would be simpler – ECU would have to say no. $27.5 million is a lot of money.
UAB
See Jax State/Kennesaw State above.
Memphis/Tulane/UTSA
These three teams are the dam holding up the AAC currently. Memphis, being the most prominent member, has already seemed to be looking towards the Pac 12 and would envy an ACC invite as well.
While Sun Belt pipe dreams would be nice, I don’t see a world where Memphis joins the Belt.
As Troy clearly learned in 2024, Tulane has a lot of money. That is very valuable to a lot of conferences, as is having a chunk of New Orleans not occupied by LSU.
As with Memphis, I don’t see Tulane joining the Belt, but I will say this much. I think Tulane would be the only school to make the Sun Belt break its de facto two conference members per state guideline.
UTSA gives the Pac 12 another entry point into Texas and would be the most realistic of these three to potentially join the Sun Belt, but as with other outliers, they are far too outside of the conference footprint to be feasible.
Now how do all of these create the first dominoes that need to fall? If Memphis primarily does not leave, no dominos fall.
But if Memphis does join the Pac 12, many reports I have heard would see UTSA and Tulane joining them, lessening the travel for the eastern schools. This would then open the door for ECU to join the Sun Belt.
FAU/North Texas/Rice/USF/Temple/Tulsa/Army/Navy
See FIU/NMSU/SHSU/UTEP above.
Of course, Keith Gill and company could have some surprise invitation or maybe even an FCS call up, though I don’t see any in this round that would merit the invitation like JMU did in 2022.
For what its worth, the Sun Belt is in a great position currently, but it cannot wait around and be reactive. If Texas State leaves, invitations to ECU, WKU, and MTSU need to be sent out within the hour. This would build the strongest version of the best conference in the country.
Sun Belt should seek
Missouri State and Delaware