Troy at Appalachian State East Division Title Game Preview
Troy at Appalachian State
Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
Time: 1:30 CT
TV: ESPN+
Spread: App State -10.5
The Sun Belt knew full and well it would all come down to this. There were some momentary doubts and Georgia Southern threw a hefty wrench into the process, but here we are.
Troy and Appalachian State are meeting with a spot in the inaugural Sun Belt Championship game on the line.
Troy’s path to this fateful trip to Boone had its fun, even if it has gone unscathed up to this point in conference play. The Trojans had to fend off a fiery Louisiana-Monroe comeback attempt, suffered the loss of starting quarterback Kaleb Barker and the subsequent defeat at Liberty followed by injury attrition rearing its ugly head at the wrong time.
The Mountaineers can sympathize, having lost the Sun Belt’s best running back in Jalin Moore early in the Sun Belt schedule.
That hasn’t fazed Scott Satterfield’s squad, though. App St has eclipsed 200 team rushing yards in four of the five games since the Arkansas State game, the contest Moore went down in.
Speedy sophomore Darrynton Evans is the primary reason for that. Evans had his first career 100-yard rushing performance in Moore’s wake against the Red Wolves and has crossed the mark three times since.
Marcus Williams has been a strong Robin to Batman, rushing for 267 yards in the last five games. The Mountaineers are also bolstered by the return of Daetrich Harrington, who was lost in the spring due to an ACL injury. He made his first appearance of the season against Georgia State this past week, rushing for 16 yards on four carries.
To say App State has met its match, though, could be more than an understatement. Troy’s front seven is once again dominating the Sun Belt and has passed nearly every test handed to it in 2018.
Louisiana-Monroe remains the only team to average more than 4.0 yards per carry against Troy this season. Against a Georgia Southern team that logged 277 yards on over five yards per carry against the Mountaineers, the Trojans gave up just 101 rushing yards.
The battle at the line of scrimmage will likely be a tight one, especially with App State in possession, leaving this game to be decided with the football in the hands of quarterback Sawyer Smith.
With injuries ravishing the wide receiver depth, Troy has been forced to get creative. Star corner Marcus Jones made his first career appearance on offense as a slot receiver last week.
After turning two touches into one yard, Troy coach Neal Brown expects Jones to be even more offensively involved on Saturday. With the health of wideouts Damion Willis, Deondre Douglas, Sydney Davis and Tray Eafford in question, things could turn ugly.
When you factor in the top defensive back group in the conference that Smith will be staring downfield at, it’s hard to imagine the Trojans having much success through the air beyond 10 yards.
The Trojans may have to rely on running back BJ Smith who has been slowed down in recent weeks.
To make matters tougher, the Mountaineer front seven is formidable in its own right. App State sits behind only Troy in run defense and has only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns.
The group is especially stout in short yardage situations. In 34 attempts, opponents have only gained 12 first downs on third-and-short (1-3 yards) runs. The Mountaineers only give up 2.13 yards per carry when backed up inside its own redzone.
Prediction
This is still a young series. Through six games, both teams have notched three wins. Most recently, the Trojans won a thrilling contest, 28-24, in Troy in 2016. Despite the youth of this series, this game has the potential to bud into a strong divisional rivalry.
As for the 2018 contest, there’s a reason App State is a double digit favorite. The Mountaineers had a minor hiccup with Georgia Southern but has blasted through just about everyone else.
Mountaineer gunslinger Zac Thomas has been uber efficient thanks to the ground game. While App State may struggle to get moving at times against Troy, the weapons in the barracks are in much better shape.
I can never count out the gutsy Neal Brown, but App State simply matches up too well with the Trojans. 24-17, Appalachian State