Troy at Georgia Southern Game Preview
Troy at Georgia Southern
Where: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro
Time: 12:00 CT
TV: ESPN+
Spread: Troy -1.5
Game two of the three game series that will decide the east division is upon us as the Trojans of Troy take a trip to Statesboro to battle with the Georgia Southern Eagles.
In game one, the Eagles took down Appalachian State to hand the Mountaineers their first conference loss of the season.
Both Troy and Georgia Southern are in control of their own destinies. A Georgia Southern win would mean the Eagles must lose at least once in the final two weeks in order for Troy to lay claim to the division, assuming the Trojans win out.
A Troy win however, would effectively knock the Eagles out of the race. It wouldn’t put Georgia Southern’s chances at zero, but a lot would have to happen in a very short amount of time. This includes a Troy loss to both Texas State and App State coupled with an App State loss to either Texas State or Georgia State (but not both).
Basically, there would need to be a three-way tie at the top in order for Georgia Southern to have a chance if it loses tomorrow.
That’s unlikely.
The Game
This is a true strength vs strength contest. Georgia Southern’s triple option has mystified opponents all season long while Troy’s rush defense has been suffocating.
Georgia Southern possesses the number one rushing offense in the Sun Belt while Troy has the league’s best run defense. 260.4 rushing yards per game vs 126.7 rushing yards allowed.
A big part of Georgia Southern’s run game is the incredible success the Eagles have on early downs. They have 1,141, or 48.7 percent, of their total rushing yards on first down.
What’s more impressive is that 12 of the Eagles’ 25 rushing touchdowns are coming on first down. Georgia Southern’s rushing numbers on third down are a little more modest, as one might expect.
The Eagles have picked up 14 first downs on 25 third and 1-3 rush attempts. They’re averaging 4.1 yards per carry in such situations, which is all you need in that spot.
Across the line of scrimmage from Georgia Southern, though, will be a front seven that thrives in early and late downs.
Opponents are averaging 3.09 yards per first down carry against the Trojans. On third down, only 1.45 yards a carry. Troy gets stops when it matters most, too, holding opponents to 1.93 yards per run in the redzone.
Only one team has reached 4.0 yards per carry in a game against Troy and five of nine teams have failed to average 3.0 yards per carry.
The winner of the line of scrimmage will have the inside track in this game.
It’s also important the Trojan defense stays disciplined. Georgia Southern can get creative on offense and have been able make big plays through the air.
The offense runs through quarterback Shai Werts who not only leads the team in rushing yards, but is also averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt.
Troy safety Cedarius Rookard will be responsible for making sure nothing gets behind the defense. His stats are never flashy, but Rookard is an experienced defensive quarterback who could make a difference on Saturday.
For Troy’s offense, this second half is going to be key. Despite leading the conference in points per league game at 36.2, Troy is only averaging nine second half points per Sun Belt game. The Trojans’ second half scoring has been trending down, too.
After scoring 21 second half points against Coastal Carolina, Troy has scored 14, seven and three points in the final two quarters the last three Sun Belt games.
It is vital for Troy to score in the second half and do so more than once. Georgia Southern is built to hold onto the ball and suck the life out of its opponent in the second half.
The Eagles have more second half rushing yards than 43 other teams have total rushing yards across the country.
Troy has the firepower to score on anybody between quarterback Sawyer Smith, running back BJ Smith and wide receiver Damion Willis. The three recently made history, but are looking to put together a rare complete game.
They’ll have to do that against an Eagle defense that has over twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes allowed.
Prediction
Troy owns an 11-6 edge in this series, winning the first nine games between the two schools. The first eight games came before and during the early the portion of World War II. Georgia Southern, though, has owned the series as of late, winning six of the last eight games and are 3-1 since joining the FBS.
Troy is 9-1 in its last 10 road games but the Eagles have won five consecutive at home. Call me a homer, but I’m giving Troy the slight edge. If this game comes down to special teams, I’m rolling with Troy kicker/punter extraordinaire Tyler Sumpter. 34-31, Troy