Troy Baseball’s May Outlook
The Trojans have two games left in the month of April, but this weekend’s series against Georgia State may as well be the start of May.
Troy has 15 games left on the schedule, and after this week’s massive win over RPI No. 25 Georgia Tech, here’s where the Trojans stand;
| Record | 25-14 |
| Home | 16-5 |
| Away | 9-9 |
| Sun Belt | #5 (10-8) |
| RPI | #88 |
| Games Left | 15 |
That RPI ranking feels a bit low, but when you consider the only conference series Troy won this year are the sweeps of Louisiana and ULM, it makes a bit more sense.
With the number of games left, Troy could have a losing record and still get to 30 wins, but if this team has any goals in the postseason, it’s going to need to get back in the win column.
The good news? Winning a lot in the home stretch will boost Troy’s resume.
The bad news? Troy gets its toughest opponents in the last month, specifically Georgia Southern and Auburn.
The Tigers are the Tigers, and Southern has surged to the No. 3 spot in the RPI. The Eagles are also one of two Sun Belt teams in the D1Baseball Top 25.
Troy plays at Southern and hosts Auburn… four times in five days.
The other ranked Sun Belt team is the juggernaut, conference leader Texas State (I honestly didn’t think I would type that again after basketball season.) Thankfully, Troy avoided the Bobcats this season, and swept the next team in the conference rankings: Louisiana.
The next three teams in conference order are Coastal Carolina, Troy and Georgia State. Throw in UAB for an extra challenge, and the majority of the remaining schedule is gnarly.
Don’t worry though, Troy also travels to Samford and App State. (No offense, Samford Scoop.)
Here’s how we broke down the remaining schedule. We took RPI into consideration, but Sun Belt teams are closer than that would suggest.
We also considered the team’s record in the situation Troy will play them (home or away), Troy’s record in that situation (winning at home, even on the road) and projected our best guess to the series’ result.
| Team | Sun Belt Rank | RPI | Games | Record H/A | Projected W-L |
| Georgia State | 6 | 56 | 3 | 7-11 | 2-1 |
| @ Samford | n/a | 181 | 1 | 10-9 | 1-0 |
| @ Georgia Southern | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16-4 | 0-3 |
| Auburn | n/a | 14 | 1 | 7-4 | 0-1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 4 | 65 | 3 | 9-8 | 1-2 |
| UAB | n/a | 82 | 1 | 8-8 | 1-0 |
| @ Appalachian State | 10 | 125 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-1 |
The good news is 30 wins is well within reach. Win just one game against all of these teams (save Southern and Auburn) and Troy will hit 30 no problem.
If we’re looking for 35 wins, a guaranteed spot in the postseason, it’s going to take a little bit more effort, and more than likely a sweep or two. Pulling off a win over Southern would also really help.
What Troy really needs is to get its edge back. After that strong win streak, the Trojans lost the series to three of the conference’s worst teams. Winning this weekend at home against a Panther team that’s not great on the road would really help build momentum.
That will also give us a really good sense of where this team will land at the end of the month.
Of course, this isn’t even talking about the conference tournament. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.