Troy Men’s Basketball Preview
Football season is not only still in full effect, but it’s just starting to heat up. Nonetheless, the Troy Trojan men’s basketball team is hitting the hardwood to open the 2018-19 basketball season Tuesday night.
Head coach Phil Cunningham is entering his sixth season at the helm as only the second coach in Troy’s D1 history, a span that stretches back to the 1993-94 season.
Cunningham has one winning season in five under his belt, that one coming in 2016-17 when the Trojans won the Sun Belt tournament and went dancing for the second time in school history. Cunningham, surprisingly enough, has been better out of conference than in conference. The Trojans have a markedly better non-conference record since 2013-14 than within the Sun Belt.
| Overall | 68-77 | 0.469 |
| Non-Conference | 34-17 | 0.667 |
| Conference | 34-60 | 0.362 |
Cunningham did come into a situation where he was tasked with building a team that can consistently compete among the top of the Sun Belt. Before Cunningham, under Don Maestri, Troy had two winning records in eight seasons of Sun Belt play.
After three years of building, Cunningham’s Trojans are 19-17 in conference play in the past two seasons compared to 15-43 in his first three seasons.
This is a massive jump and it can quickly be attributed to a recent offensive explosion. Troy has scored at least 75 points per game in each of the last two seasons after not even hitting 70 per game since 2011-12.
Roster
Departures
| G Wesley Person, Jr | Graduation | 130 gp | 15.9 ppg 2.9 rpg 1.5 apg 42.2% | |
| G Kevin Baker | Graduation | 70 gp | 7.5 ppg 2.6 rpg 3.1 apg 30.6% | |
| G/F Shawn Hopkins | Transfer | 74 gp | 3.2 ppg 1.8 rpg 0.4 apg 37.2% | |
| F Juan Davis, Jr | Graduation | 68 gp | 6.5 ppg 4.2 rpg 0.2 apg 46.1% | |
| F Jaro Moravek | Graduation | 56 gp | 2 ppg 1.7 rpg 0.3 apg 34.5% | |
Troy only loses five players, four with any serious experience and three who made a big impact. Of those three, Wesley Person is a name that will forever be attached to Trojan Arena lore.
Person, son of former NBA player Wesley Person, Sr and nephew of former NBA star Chuck Person, is the only player in Troy history to score 2,000 points and holds the Sun Belt three point record.
Kevin Baker and Shawn Hopkins’ departures leave Troy a little thin at guard but the Trojans have the manpower to replace the production. We’ll get into that later.
Finally, Troy loses a glue guy at the three-spot with Juan Davis’ graduation. It may seem surprising, but replacing Davis’ value may be Cunningham’s toughest task.
Returning
| F Jordon Varnado | Sr | 94 gp | 15.8 ppg 7 rpg 1.3 apg 49.9% | |
| F Alex Hicks | Sr | 70 gp | 8.2 ppg 6.1 rpg 0.7 apg 53.1% | |
| G BJ Miller | Sr | 100 gp | 4.1 ppg 2 rpg 1.9 apg 45.6% | |
| F Javan Johnson | So | 33 gp | 5.8 ppg 3 rpg 0.6 apg 46.2% | |
| G Darian Adams | So | 32 gp | 2.9 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.1 apg 34.4% | |
| G Malik Burnett | So | 16 gp | 1.2 ppg 0.8 rpg 0.8 apg 38.1% | |
Troy returns two of the Sun Belt’s best down low in Jordan Varnado and Alex Hicks. Varnado has already garnered preseason honors after averaging a career high 18 points per game last season.
Troy returns a number of wing players that will help with production replacement. Javan Johnson, Darian Adams and Malik Burnett will be your three key players to watch this year, in terms of development.
All together, Troy returns 63.7 percent of last year’s point production and 67.7 percent of last season’s total rebounds.
Newcomers
| G KJ Simon | Fr | 6’3 190 | Orlando, Fl | |
| F Zay Williams | Fr | 6’8 195 | Birmingham, Al | |
| G Jalen Tuck | Fr | 5’10 180 | Troy, Al | |
| G Eric Walker | Fr | 6’4 190 | Birmingham, Al | |
| F Spencer Rodgers | Fr | 6’4 180 | Buford, Ga | |
| F Devante Foster | Jr | 6’8 195 | Stockbridge, Ga | South Georgia Tech |
| G Charles Norman | Jr | 6’2 180 | Durham, NC | Shelton State CC |
| F Davion Thomas | rSo | 6’9 210 | Columbus, Ga | Middle Tenn St |
Davion Thomas is the only one of the group we are guaranteed to not see, as he must sit out the season due to transfer rules. The new group is wing heavy, as expected. Game one will give us some insight into who steps into the rotation.
Roster Outlook
Okay, this is where we really get into it. Troy plays from the inside out so we’ll start in the post.
The Varnado Breakdown
Varnado returns as Troy’s top player, having improved his scoring clip each year on campus. Last season, he missed a chunk of December due to injury but still led the team with 18 points per game in 26 games.
The 6’6 forward will look to have a more efficient season this year, though. His shooting percentage was down nearly five points last year from his sophomore campaign at 47.8 percent.
This was largely due to a newfound confidence in his three point shot. Despite playing in 11 fewer games last season than in 2016-17, he shot 13 more three pointers. The uptick in three point shots attempted per game was noticeable, but he only made 1.0 three per game last season compared to 0.8 the year before.
As a rebounder, he maintained at a solid 7.0 rebounds per game last year. However, his 12.5 total rebound percentage was a career low. This number measures the estimate amount of available rebounds a player grabs.
Finally, he had a career high in turnovers with 2.2 per game. That’s not a terrible number, but Varnado and his coaches would love to see it trend down this season.
Ending on a plus, Varnado will likely be the key piece to the offense once more after a career high 29.7 percent usage rate last year. As the primary scorer, he will also likely be fouled quite a bit and sent to the charity stripe.
His year-to-year free throw improvement has been stellar. From shooting 63.6 percent as a freshman to 73.8 percent as a junior, Varnado has improved each year.
He’s paired with Alex Hicks once more, creating a big man combo you won’t find anywhere else in the league.
Hicks became a regular in the starting lineup in last year and exploded. He made 60.1 percent of his shots inside the arc while averaging 11.7 points per game in 2017-18. Hicks was strong on the boards, pulling down 8.4 rebounds a game. That number was good for third best in the Sun Belt.
Alongside Varnado, Hicks is also a solid free throw shooter, making 74 percent of his attempts last year.
In a perfect world, Troy gets 30 points and 15 rebounds out of these two players each night.
Guard Play
Things are going to get interesting here. Troy’s only real holdover is point guard BJ Miller. The senior shared the court with Kevin Baker and was easily the better player of the two.
Miller will be charged with running the floor after having a career high 3.2 assists per game last season. As an added bonus, the 6’0 guard also nabbed three rebounds per game.
His tallest task is going to be finding chemistry with what could be a deep revolving door of wingmen.
Carver High School product Darian Adams played in 32 games, averaging 15.5 minutes per game as a freshman last year. Adams is an early favorite to be one of Cunningham’s primary guards.
Adams is a solid defender but has some work to do on the offensive side of the floor. This is where newcomer Charles Norman comes in. Of the seven eligible incoming players, Norman may have the best chance at early playing time thanks to a hard-slashing style of play.
Norman is a JUCO product, but in high school he scored 25 points against against legendary Oak Hill.. twice.
Of the returnees, Malik Burnett has the potential to be a stat stuffing wing for the Trojans. Though he played sparingly as a freshman last season, he played well when given a little time.
In his 16 appearances, he played at least 11 minutes three times. In those three games, he averaged 2.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists.
Troy will be developing and breaking in a lot of fresh faces, but the loss of Person should be largely mitigated by the combined production of several high-ceiling players.
The Juan Davis, Jr Replacement
On to the big one. Juan Davis, Jr was an unheralded beast in his time at Troy. Davis scored, rebounded and provided the Trojans with an extra defensive body in the paint.
His replacement is going to be sophomore Javan Johnson. As a freshman, Johnson started 16 of the 33 games he played in. Though he only took 4.4 shots per game, he quickly showed his worth as a dual threat scorer.
On average, Johnson sank one three pointer and hit one two pointer in each game. Stretched out, he average 13.6 points per 40 minutes.
Johnson averaged three rebounds a game, as well, and showed his length by blocking 21 shots.
Schedule
Troy has a non-conference slate that features five CBS 353 top 150 teams, two teams favored to win their respected conferences and one team ranked in the preseason AP poll.
It’s a balanced 12 game slate that could do a lot to prepare the Trojans for the important half of the season.
Last season, Troy had a strong 5-3 start that featured an eight point loss to a top 10 Kentucky team. The finish left much to be desired. Troy’s only win in the final five non-conference games came against non-division I Milligan. Before that game, the Trojans lost four in a row including disappointing road losses to Southern Miss and Austin Peay.
Non-Conference Schedule
| Date | Team | 17 record | CBS 353 | Proj. Con | AP rank |
| 6-Nov | Fort Valley St | 13-16 | D2 | ||
| 10-Nov | AT St. Louis | 17-16 | 50 | 1 | |
| 12-Nov | AT Pitt | 6-24 | 150 | 15 | |
| 15-Nov | Southern Miss | 16-18 | 148 | 7 | |
| 18-Nov | UCA | 18-17 | 270 | 8 | |
| 24-Nov | North Alabama | 15-13 | 324 | 9 | |
| 29-Nov | Austin Peay | 19-15 | 162 | 4 | |
| 3-Dec | AT Florida St | 26-9 | 19 | 7 | 17 |
| 12-Dec | Carver | N/A | NCCAA | ||
| 16-Dec | AT WKU | 27-11 | 45 | 1 | |
| 21-Dec | AT UAB | 20-13 | 227 | 8 | |
| 29-Dec | UA-Pine Bluff | 14-21 | 333 | 3 |
After a primer against Fort Valley State (the earliest in November Troy has ever kicked off a season), Troy is going to get a serious test when it travels to St. Louis and Pittsburgh.
The Billikens are a team that could playing well into March with a complete roster that features their two leading scorers from last year.
The Panthers are coming off an ugly season that ended in the firing of head coach Kevin Stallings. Former longtime Duke assistant Jeff Capel has taken over and his recruiting pedigree has already made an impact as Pitt has welcomed in a top-30 class.
A key four game stretch follows the Pitt game. Between Southern Miss and Austin Peay, we are going to get a glimpse of how Troy might fare in conference play.
The final five games is going to be a roller coaster. Sandwiched in between games against March-level opponents in Florida State and Western Kentucky is little NCCAA Carver.
The Trojans will have a chance to finish strong, though, against rival UAB and a not-so-great Arkansas-Pine Bluff squad.
Conference Schedule
*Listed in order of coaches poll
| SBC Projection | CBS 353 | |
| Georgia St | 1 | 94 |
| Georgia Southern | 2 | 145 |
| ULL | 3 | 119 |
| Troy | T4 | 168 |
| ULM | T4 | 222 |
| App St | 6 | 182 |
| USA | 7 | 193 |
| Texas St | 8 | 230 |
| Arkansas St | 9 | 249 |
| Coastal | 10 | 259 |
| UTA | 11 | 291 |
| UALR | 12 | 312 |
In the 18 game schedule, Troy plays seven of the 11 other teams twice.
| Coastal Carolina | 1/3 (H), 3/9 (A) |
| Appalachian St | 1/5 (H), 3/7 (A) |
| Little Rock | 1/10 (A), 2/7 (H) |
| Arkansas St | 1/12 (A), 2/9 (H) |
| Georgia Southern | 1/17 (H), 2/15 (A) |
| Georgia State | 1/19 (H), 2/13 (A) |
| South Alabama | 2/2 (A), 2/23 (H) |
Troy avoids a second game with both Louisiana schools, Texas-Arlington and Texas State. The biggest games are easily the tilts with the Georgia schools.
In fact, the one time Troy will be on national television is a February 15 game at Georgia Southern on ESPN2. The four contests with the Eagles and Panthers will go a long way for Troy.
The schedule itself is more favorable than not, thanks to the final stretch. Nothing is more important in college basketball than catching fire at the right time. Troy has ample opportunity to do just that.
| Final five games | |
| South Alabama | 23-Feb |
| Texas State | 28-Feb |
| Texas-Arlington | 2-Mar |
| AT Appalachian St | 7-Mar |
| AT Coastal Carolina | 9-Mar |
Season Outlook
College basketball is a tough sport. Everything is about timing. For Troy and Cunningham, the roster situation is just a year or two off. As we’ve covered, Troy will have to find a way to compliment the bigs this season.
Even with a thin backcourt, the Trojans are projected to be a top-five team in the Sun Belt and will be vying for a top-three seed by seasons end.
Health is a major factor, though. Troy will likely only go 7-8 deep in its rotation and one key injury could be detrimental.
Seven or eight wins in 12 November/December games isn’t out of the question, and the floor in conference play is 10 wins.
My prediction: 18-12, 11-7