Troy vs Louisiana-Lafayette, Homecoming Preview
Troy vs Louisiana-Lafayette
Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy
Time: 2:30 CT
TV: ESPN+
Spread: Troy -10.5
One month remaining in another upsettingly quick football season and the Troy Trojans have everything they want right in front of them. At 4-0 in the Sun Belt, Troy must watch its step as it weaves its way through a daunting November.
It starts on Saturday afternoon when the red hot Cajuns come into Troy fresh off of a big win over rival Arkansas State. Louisiana-Lafayette is tied with Louisiana-Monroe for the West division lead at 2-2.
Troy got an extended break following a Tuesday night win over South Alabama on the 23rd. It gave the Trojans a little extra time for rest but will still be without the services of multiple key players.
Corner Marcus Jones is out indefinitely while wide receiver Deondre Douglas will either be used sparingly or not at all against the Cajuns.
It’s likely that neither absence will be felt, though. Corner Terrance Dunlap will return to the outside as Troy’s top man-to-man coverage player and, of course, Blace Brown and his 11 career interceptions is still on the edge.
Furthermore, ULL is running the ball on 60.7 percent of its plays. That’s second highest among all non-option offense Sun Belt teams.
As for Douglas, his production can be replaced by taking advantage of similar personnel types that Troy has in its bag of weapons.
Douglas is mainly used in quick routes and screens. Look for the Trojans to work running back Jabir Frye on the perimeter and use receiver Tray Eafford as a tunnel screen option.
The Cajuns enter this game as one of the top running teams in the Sun Belt. Between Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais ULL is averaging 232.1 rushing yards per game on 5.75 yards per carry.
Lafayette is incredibly efficient on offense thanks to its three-horse stable. The Cajuns stay ahead of the chains and convert on third downs at a high clip. They’re fourth in the country on third down conversion percentage at 52.9 percent.
While they won’t throw much, the Cajuns can be effective through the air. Quarterback Andre Nunez has completed 67.4 percent of his passes and is averaging a solid 8.6 yards per attempt.
The key for Troy will be doing what it does best on defense, create havoc. Despite seeing the fourth most carries in the Sun Belt, Troy leads the conference in rushing yards allowed per game with 130.
Opponents are gaining only 3.21 yards per carry against Troy. Louisiana-Monroe is the only team to average more than 4.0 yards per carry against Troy while four teams have been under three.
The Trojans have also given up just nine rushing touchdowns this year.
Perhaps most importantly, Troy is also top 10 nationally in tackles for loss and sacks with 65 and 26. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning will need his team to create negative plays on early downs to combat the strength of the Cajuns.
Offensively, it’s all about progression for quarterback Sawyer Smith. He settled down against the Jaguars and showcased the deep ball on a number of occasions. His numbers in the 38-17 win won’t blow you away, but he was responsible for four total touchdowns.
Even if Smith has to be a game manager, Troy has the talent on both sides of the ball to make plays.
Running back BJ Smith has exploded as of late, rushing for 527 yards in the last four games. He reached the century mark in each of those games and if he does so on Saturday, it’ll make a school record five straight 100 yard rushing games.
Prediction
Troy has been pretty solid in its own building recently, winning eight of its last 10 conference home games. The Cajuns on the other hand, are 1-6 in their last seven road games. Lafayette is no sleeper and could hit on a few big plays, but Troy should be able to pull away and cover thanks to an aggressive, yet disciplined defense. 35-24, Troy