Troy Vs. Week One: A look at season and home openers past
It’s safe to say the Group of Five world has its eyes on Troy, Alabama, this week. Last year’s favorite giant slayers host Boise State, the pride and joy of the underdog world. The winner will be the frontrunner to represent its conference on New Years’ Day.
This is uncharted territory for the Trojans, both on the national stage and the small screen. Before last year’s trip to Idaho, Troy’s first game was relegated to pay-per-view channels and regional television. Both matchups with Boise State will have been on .
There is a difference between season openers and home openers, though. Twice has Troy been on ESPN2 for its first game at home: the famous 2004 Missouri game and the infamous 2007 Oklahoma State game. We’ll get to those later.
My point is there’s a lot to look at historically regarding this as the first game of the season. How has Troy done in Week Ones past?
First, I want to break down the raw results.
Week One Records
| Year | Opponent | Score |
| 2003 | @ Kansas St | L, 5-41 |
| 2004 | @ Marshall | W, 17-14 |
| 2005 | Cal Poly | W, 27-10 |
| 2006 | Alabama State | W, 38-0 |
| 2007 | @ Arkansas | L, 26-46 |
| 2008 | @ Mid Tenn | W, 31-17 |
| 2009 | @ BGSU | L, 14-31 |
| 2010 | BGSU | W, 30-27 |
| 2011 | @ Clemson | L, 19-43 |
| 2012 | @ UAB | W, 39-29 |
| 2013 | UAB | W, 34-31 OT |
| 2014 | @ UAB | L, 10-48 |
| 2015 | @ NC State | L, 21-49 |
| 2016 | Austin Peay | W, 57-17 |
| 2017 | @ Boise | L, 13-24 |
| 2018 | Boise | TBD |
Troy’s season has begun on the road 10 out of the last 15 times, and only three were wins:
- 2004 @ Marshall, 17-14
- 2008 @ Middle Tennessee State, 31-17
- 2012 @ UAB, 39-29
In each of these instances, the previous year was also an away opener and a loss. Two of them were rivalry games, and incidentally they were the highest margins of victory against FBS opponents.
But Troy begins 2018 at home, and for all intents and purposes Larry Blakeney Field is an advantage. Of the five times Troy’s season opener was also a home opener, it lost none. Troy is 5-0 in season openers at home since joining FBS, and hasn’t lost one since 1985.
There’s a reason the field was named for Coach Blakeney.
Granted, three of those five were FCS opponents (Cal Poly, Alabama State, Austin Peay), which accounts for the huge margins of victory. The other two wins were only by three points, so they had to be comparable teams, right?:
- 2010 Bowling Green (2-10)
- 2013 UAB (2-10)
Umm. Well. Let’s look at home openers by themselves, then.
Home Opener Records
| Year | Opponent | Score | Attend |
| 2003 | SE Louisiana | W, 28-0 | 19,889 |
| 2004 | Missouri | W, 24-14 | 26,574 |
| 2005 | Cal Poly | W, 27-10 | 18,536 |
| 2006 | Alabama St. | W, 38-0 | 26,265 |
| 2007 | Oklahoma St | W, 41-23 | 24,102 |
| 2008 | Alcorn State | W, 65-0 | 22,105 |
| 2009 | UAB | W, 27-14 | 21,182 |
| 2010 | BGSU | W, 30-27 | 19,886 |
| 2011 | Mid Tenn | W, 38-35 | 20,185 |
| 2012 | Louisiana | L, 24-37 | 17,981 |
| 2013 | UAB | W, 34-31 (OT) | 21,398 |
| 2014 | Duke | L, 17-34 | 21,331 |
| 2015 | Charleston S | W, 44-16 | 17,517 |
| 2016 | Austin Peay | W, 57-17 | 18,835 |
| 2017 | Alabama St. | W, 34-7 | 29,278 |
| 2018 | Boise | TBD | TBD |
That’s a much better list to look at. 13-2 at home in the first game of the season. What about those losses?
- 2012 Louisiana (9-4)*
- 2014 Duke (9-4)
This looks good, but it shows how low Troy fell in Blakeney’s last five years. Troy gave up 63 more points in those home openers than in the other ten combined. The Trojans won 21 games from 2010 to 2014 before winning 21 in just the last two years.
The most points Troy has given up in a home opener is that 37 to Louisiana. In that 15-year window, Troy has averaged 35 points, and if you take away the two losses that average jumps to 37. Troy effectively gave away those two home openers.
Finally, it’s worth noting that in that five-year span, Troy’s margin of victory was either negative (a loss) or exactly three.
In the Neal Brown era however, Troy has won by at least 27 points. The Trojans have scored at least 34 and only given 17 at most. The catch? All three home openers have been FCS opponents. This analysis is more applicable to Florida A&M next week.
The 2012 ULL game was never going to be a big game. Sure, Troy had just beaten its rival, but 2011 was a bust of a season. The Trojans went 3-9 after winning five straight conference titles, despite returning star quarterback Corey Robinson.
It was the lowest-attended home opener ever at the time, in a season that averaged over 20,000 in attendance. It helps when you bring both Mississippi State and Navy to town. Both of these games are in the top ten of all-time attendance.
Records in Top-Ten Attended Home Games
| Attendance | Opponent | Result | Year |
| 29,278 | Alabama St. | W, 34-7 | 2017 |
| 29,013 | Miss. State | L, 24-30 | 2013 |
| 27,324 | Akron | W, 22-17 | 2017 |
| 26,574 | Missouri | W, 24-14 | 2004 |
| 26,265 | Alabama St. | W, 38-0 | 2006 |
| 26,000 | Marshall | W, 33-24 | 2003 |
| 25,782 | App. State | W, 28-24 | 2016 |
| 25,211 | South Alabama | L, 8-19 | 2017 |
| 24,321 | Navy* | W, 41-31 | 2012 |
| 24,102 | Oklahoma St | W, 41-23 | 2007 |
Everyone expects the Boise State game to top this list. Even Coach Brown said “hopefully there will be more fans in Veterans Memorial Stadium than ever before.” It’s the perfect storm:
- Coming off best FBS season in history
- Prime-time national TV matchup with premier G5 school
- Completion of new stadium upgrade
It’s clear that reputations mean something if a team makes the attendance list. Three of the four Power 5 teams to play Veterans Memorial Stadium are on this list. Navy and Marshall are historically big teams, and Appalachian State is no pushover.
Proximity is also a major factor. Alabama State, on here twice, is just up the road in Montgomery. That’s also why Mississippi State was the first game to top 29,000.
Let’s focus on the winning though.
| Attend. | Record | Average |
| 29,000+ | 1-1 | 0.500 |
| 27,000+ | 2-1 | 0.667 |
| 26,000+ | 5-1 | 0.833 |
| 25,000+ | 6-2 | 0.750 |
| 24,000+ | 8-2 | 0.800 |
That’s a pretty solid record, especially in the 26,000+ range. Here are the two outliers:
- 2013 Mississippi State, L 24-30
- 2017 South Alabama, L 8-19
We’ve concluded that Troy was terrible from 2010-2014, but 2013 was a bright spot. The Trojans were bowl-eligible and nearly beat Mississippi State. Regardless, the Bulldogs were definitely a better team.
The 2017 Battle for the Belt is a different scenario. First, Troy lost a game it should not have, and that’s another article in itself. Second, 2017 was a record year for attendance—the average game had 2,000 more than 2016 and 3,000 more than the next highest year.
If we put all of these datasets together though, we get an interesting picture: Troy is undefeated in home openers with attendance over 24,000. The only Week One home opener on this list is a big win, but it’s a win over nearby Alabama State.
The only home opener on this list that isn’t Alabama State? The 2004 Missouri and 2007 Oklahoma State games.
It’s important to look at every game individually. Boise is likely going to win Saturday, but if past records are any indication it will be hard to temper expectations.