Tuesday Takeaways: Postseason Preview
We’ve had a whole weekend to chew on Thursday’s game, so I don’t think it’s necessary to really dig into the stats (with one exception, at the end).
Instead I’m going to take a second to look at the ramifications of the win… in the series with That Other Team, in context of the divisional standings, and how all that shakes out to Troy’s bowl outlook.
Let’s start with the good stuff.
Beating That Team in Mobile
Before this five-game streak, Troy was 3-3 against South and 1-2 when the trophy was involved. The Trojans absolutely flipped the script when it comes to this rivalry.
We’ve gone over how dominant Troy is in the Port City, but the perspective is worth revisiting.
When Troy returns to Hancock Whitney Stadium in 2024, it will have been a full DECADE since Troy lost in Mobile. Provided of course, that’s not where Troy goes bowling.
That’s also a 7-1 record in Mobile since the rivalry began.
Thursday was the lowest-scoring game in the series, and apart from the 2020 shutout, it’s the fewest points scored by either team. It was the smallest margin of victory since the 2013 game.
And yet, it had the highest stakes of any Battle for the Belt game.
That’s mostly due to the meteoric rise of that Team in Mobile, so barring meltdowns for either team it will effectively decide the Sun Belt West. We’ll get to that in a moment.
That’s likely why this win felt so good. It felt good to know Troy still had that Other Team’s number, and the respect for success on both sides was refreshing.
The nation’s eyes were on this game, and the Trojans stood tall.
Securing The West
The reward? Control of their own destiny. If Troy wins out, it’s going to the conference title game.
The catch? The top four teams are walking on eggshells, especially Louisiana. Let’s look at this.
Troy is so far ahead of the other teams, it only has one conference game in the next three weeks. That gives the other teams a chance to catch up… or slip up.
That magic number is the number of conference wins and Troy losses each team needs to clinch the West. The sevens are basically eliminated… but I didn’t care enough to find out for sure.
Maybe this will help you understand better.
South and USM haven’t played each other, so either team can clinch by winning out… and a Troy loss. Bear in mind that Eastern teams are still on the schedule for the other three teams.
South has to play Southern Miss, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion. The Golden Eagles have to play South Alabama, Coastal and Georgia State.
They need Troy to lose on top of winning those games.
Louisiana needs total cannibalism. Winning out means knocking USM and Troy to two losses, and a USM win over South means a four-way tie effectively.
According to the Sun Belt tiebreaker rules, Louisiana and Troy would have a 2-1 record among the four teams. Then, Troy’s 5-1 SBC West record would still beat out UL’s 4-2 record.
The Cajuns need Troy to lose on top of all that.
No team will have clinched until the others have slipped up… but Troy has the easiest road to the title game.
Bowling Projections
So the Sun Belt has five guaranteed tie-ins, and they select teams in a certain order. Here they are sorted by date.
Update: The Independence Bowl makes it six, if Army or the AAC fail to provide a team.
| Bowl | Selection | Location | Date | Time (CT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duluth Trading Cure | 1/3/4 | Orlando, FL | Friday, Dec. 16 | 2 pm |
| LendingTree | 5 | Mobile, AL | Saturday, Dec. 17 | 4:45 pm |
| Myrtle Beach | 1/3/4 | Myrtle Beach, SC | Monday, Dec. 19 | 1:30 pm |
| R+L Carriers New Orleans | 2 | New Orleans, LA | Wednesday, Dec. 21 | 8 pm |
| Camellia | 1/3/4 | Montgomery, AL | Tuesday, Dec. 27 | 11 am |
| Radiance Independence Bowl | 1/3/4/6 | Shreveport, LA | Friday, Dec. 23 | 2 pm |
I didn’t include the Cotton Bowl, because getting the NY6 bid would take a lot of things to swing Troy’s way. Trust me, if that becomes more of a possibility, I’ll let you know.
You’ll notice that the Cure, Myrtle Beach, Independence and Camellia Bowls all technically have the 1st, 3rd and 4th selection. That’s because they’re owned by ESPN.
The other ESPN-owned bowls that could select Sun Belt teams are:
- Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, FL)
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise, ID)
- SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (Dallas, TX)
- Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
- New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM)
Usually, the Cure Bowl chooses the best team not in the Sun Belt title game, using the first pick. Again, it could be any of the ESPN bowls, but Cure is literally the second bowl of the season, fewer than two weeks after the title game.
If Troy misses out on the Sun Belt Championship, there’s a good chance the Trojans would go to Orlando. That’s the tradeoff.
Fortunately, Troy is a solid pick to win the West at this point.
The second bowl game to pick a Sun Belt is the New Orleans Bowl. Depending on the outcome of the Championship, this is a good possibility for Troy, as a previous participant, whether the Trojans win the title or not.
If New Orleans passes on Troy, then it’s very likely the Myrtle Beach Bowl takes Troy with the third pick. Again, it could be any ESPN bowl, so if the Cure Bowl doesn’t make the first pick, Troy could end up there anyway.
The next pick is also an ESPN Bowl too. Should the Trojans miss the championship game, it’s possible an East team takes one of the earlier picks. A lower bowl could take a lower pick, too, but that’s less likely.
The point is if Troy falls to the fourth pick, I like the Camellia Bowl, the Boca Raton or the First Responder Bowl, in that order.
The fifth pick would put Troy back in Mobile at the LendingTree Bowl. That would require really good seasons from teams in the East, or a surging West team down the stretch.
Or JMU gets its bowl waiver.
Conclusion: Prepare for New Orleans, unless Troy slips out of the title game. Orlando is a solid backup plan regardless, and Myrtle Beach is a decent consolation prize too, provided Troy brings home the Sun Belt title.
Martial’s Magic Number: 33
Now that Troy is bowl eligible, and leading the West, there are FIVE games remaining, meaning Carlton only has to average seven tackles per game to break the record.
His current average is 10.1 per game, so we’re still looking at the record being broken during the Arkansas State game at the end of the regular season. He could go off and have a career game against any of the teams left on this schedule, but I’d still expect him to be honored sometime during that last matchup.
In the meantime, enjoy the bye week y’all!