What If: How Troy’s One-Score Games Made the Difference

Troy has managed to pull off another thrilling comeback, beating Army by a single point on Saturday. It’s the fourth comeback victory this season and the fifth win by a single score.

As Sumrall’s Trojans keep winning, it continues to show just how confusing the tenure of one Chip Lindsey was. Neal Brown returned the Trojans to a level which hadn’t been seen since the Southland days of the 1990s.

Of course, the competitive level definitely improved as Troy transitioned to FBS.

Going 35-16 before his departure for West Virginia, it would stand to reason that the Trojans should’ve been built for success and ready to continue 10-win seasons for the foreseeable future.

Instead a team that won 30 games in three years fell off and only won 15 games in the three years of the Chip Lindsey era. 

But why? 

While there were roster defections in the wake of Neal Brown’s exit and the hiring of Lindsey, many players remained. Still, things took an obvious downturn in 2019.

The most frustrating metric for any team has to be records in one score games. These are the games where the team had the opportunity to win, but missed out. Therein lies the crux of the Chip Lindsey era, losing games you could’ve won.

It’s the ultimate “What If?”

Here’s how Lindsey’s predecessor handled close games:

During his time in the Wiregrass, Neal Brown only had six one-score losses: 3 in 2015, 2 in 2016, and one in 2018. Fortunately, he doubled that number in the win column, but this comparison is about missed opportunities.

Brown’s 2015 team showed potential, but only amassed a 4-8 record. 

If those three single-score games were changed, Troy would’ve been bowling for the first time since 2010 with a 7-5 record and a 6-2 record in the Sun Belt, enough for a three-way tie for 2nd place.

Troy would’ve won the first edition of the Battle for the Belt, not dropped an odd homecoming game to Idaho, and preserved its unblemished record against the Vandals.

Most importantly, the 2015 squad would’ve been way ahead of schedule when it beat App St. This game is considered the righting of the Trojan ship under Brown, much like how the 2022 game for Sumrall.

In 2016, one single-score game matters most: #2 Clemson. This should’ve been Troy’s biggest win in school history. Troy would’ve been in the stratosphere of college football. This one still is the one that got away. 

Another step in the Troy legacy that could’ve been was the Georgia Southern game. All Troy had to do to take the Sun Belt title was win in Statesboro. A sixth title could’ve parlayed into the eventual title in 2017, giving the Trojans 7 overall.

2016 with wins changed would’ve given Troy a 12-1 record, maintained the first ranked Sun Belt team, and also marked the first SBC squad to finish the season ranked.

Unfortunately, such a season probably wouldn’t have been enough to give Troy a New Year’s Six bowl. Western Michigan went 13-0. 

Brown didn’t have any one-score losses in 2017 and only had one in 2018, a loss to Liberty in Virginia. Changing this one game would have set Troy up to match the 11-win success of the 2017 year.

Undoubtedly, these six wins would’ve set the Brown era of Troy up for more success moving forward. Now let’s see how things during the Lindsey era would’ve changed.

15-20 over three years certainly slowed down the momentum built up by Brown and Company. But how different would we be viewing these three years if the one score losses were reversed.

All NINE of them. 

In 2019, Lindsey led the Trojans to a 5-7 record, but troy lost three games by a single score. This would’ve given Lindsey a bowl game in his first year and Troy’s fourth in a row. While a bowl is great, an 8-4 year is a huge drop off from three 10+ win seasons.

2020 added four more one-score losses. Granted, if there is any year in Lindsey’s tenure that can be forgiven, it’s 2020.

Troy managed to play a nearly full schedule and almost made a bowl. But, 5-6 is still 5-6.

The most important game would’ve been Troy winning the Second Battle for the Palladium in Troy late in the year. Troy would still hold all three of its rivalry game trophies.

The other games that would’ve changed were Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Coastal, giving the Trojans an 8-3 record and easily Chip Lindsey’s best record in his tenure. Note that Troy won a single one-score game in Lindsey’s first two years: a last-second field goal victory over FCS Eastern Kentucky.

2021 would’ve been another par for the course for Lindsey: 7 wins and a bowl. The only losses would’ve been to Liberty and Coastal. It would’ve given the Trojans a 7-5 record and a sixth straight bowl game.

Interestingly, the 2021 squad had three single-score wins that year, making four total under Lindsey and a third of the wins under Brown. Troy went from 12-6 in one-score games to 4-9.

There are mainly two takeaways from the Lindsey era. 

1. Three straight wins over Coastal would’ve gone pretty far in slowing down the Chants’ success. This would’ve definitely altered the Sun Belt races from 2019-21. It’s not clear if Troy would’ve been at play for a title, but they could’ve definitely played spoiler more often.
2. Are 7, 8, and 7 wins enough to save Chip Lindsey’s job? The bowl game outcomes would’ve played a factor, but we also won’t know for sure what factors went into firing Lindsey.

What I can say, however, is from a fan’s perspective, Lindsey would’ve been viewed just the same as he was winning 5, 5, and 5. He simply underperformed and didn’t win with players who were not so far removed from winning twice that many games in the years before.

The final word on the one-score failures of Chip Lindsey is this: In 2021, Lindsey’s squad went 3-2 in one score games.

With largely the same talent, Coach Jon Sumrall has gone 5-1 in one-score games. 

As Sumrall’s Trojans keep winning, it’s clear that winning close games not only makes a difference in the team’s on-paper success, it also emphasizes the talent and resolve these young men have had the entire time.