Troy’s 2022 Postseason Possibilities
With two games left on the schedule, it’s time to start thinking about what comes next.
For the first time in four years, the Trojans are now guaranteed to go bowling. Carlton Martial is also guaranteed to hold the FBS record for most tackles in a career by season’s end.
The Trojans are also on track for its first Western division title, its first spot in the Sun Belt Title Game, and potentially its record-breaking seventh conference title.
None of that is guaranteed, though. Let’s start with what it takes to get there.
Conference Title Game
| Date | Saturday, December 3 |
| Time | 2:30 pm CT |
| Location | TBD |
| Channel | ESPN |
| Teams | Coastal Carolina vs. TBD |
Coastal Carolina clinched the East, ranked in the top 25 and has a single loss. The Chants are focused on ending the season that way, and provided they beat JMU in the last week, they will host.
Troy needs to win out to clinch, unless South Alabama loses to Southern Miss this weekend. The Jags are just as hot as Troy, but losing the Belt also gave their destiny to the Trojans.
The most likely outcome is Coastal will host Troy, but if the Chants lose the last two games it’s possible the West winner will get home field advantage.
That’s just the first of two postseason matchups for Troy, though. The Trojans will go bowling.
Bowl Game
Sumrall has returned Troy to the promised land: the postseason. It’s the sweetest feeling to know that regardless of any other outcome, Troy will play 13 games.
Here’s where the big sports networks have Troy going, and against whom:
| Projector | Bowl | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| CBS | Frisco | Fresno State |
| ESPN (Bonagura) | New Orleans | UTSA |
| ESPN (Schlabach) | LendingTree | BYU |
| Yahoo Sports | Boca Raton | Air Force |
| Action Network | New Orleans | Western Kentucky |
| Sports Illustrated | LendingTree | Wyoming |
| 24/7 | Birmingham | Duke |
| Athlon Sports | New Orleans | UTSA |
We’ve spoken before about how the Sun Belt’s bowl tie-ins work. Since then, the Independence Bowl has entered the picture, and athletic director Brent Jones confirmed at Monday night’s Trojan Talk that the previous selection process is completely out the window.
Despite the fact that the New Orleans Bowl and the LendingTree Bowls are both independent, not owned by ESPN, the network has a hand in deciding matchups. The “Bowl Season” organization is simply the unification of all bowls under one roof.
Like other conferences, ESPN will pair up bowl games for the best matchup and TV exposure. Tie-ins matter, but Troy’s quality season means it’s more likely to get a quality opponent.
Looking at the above team projections, I like UTSA, Wyoming, BYU, Air Force and Duke. These teams either have solid records or in Duke and BYU’s cases, claim Power 5 status. I don’t like a rematch with Western Kentucky, and Fresno State seems a bit weak for an equal matchup with Troy.
UTSA and Wyoming specifically have one loss each in conference play. They could be solid matchups right now.
I think the other consideration has to be turnaround time. I still think between Troy and South, the division No. 2 will go to the Cure Bowl.
It’s less than two weeks after the conference title game, and it’s considered one of the conference’s best tie-ins.
I’d also rule out the Camellia Bowl for Troy, at least this year. It’s not technically a hometown game, but Troy is a corporate sponsor, and Troy is likely to get better competition at other bowls.
The LendingTree Bowl and Frisco Bowl are exactly two weeks after the game, so that’s still rough, but it’s more doable.
The New Orleans Bowl and Independence Bowl are the furthest out from the conference championship, and they tend to host higher quality competition (including Power 5 teams in Shreveport’s case).
The Boca Raton, Gasparilla and First Responder Bowls are also the same timeframe, so don’t commit to a Louisiana trip just yet. It could be Texas or Florida.
I think the reward of a destination trip is more likely for Troy, given its story this season. If the Trojans make the conference championship, I’d expect a Louisiana game.
If they win the title, I think Boca Raton isn’t too crazy.
There’s still two or three games between now and then, but I like the most common pick among projectors right now: New Orleans Bowl vs. UTSA.
I will definitely update you as the season progresses though. It’s something we’re already doing.
Martial Watch Round 2
Carlton Martial has the FBS record. Now, we’re tracking to see if he can break the Troy record for career tackles.
Clearly, this list came out before the season. Martial is now at 548 tackles, needing just 16 to tie the program record.
He’s averaging 11.8 per game, so he should break it by the end of the regular season.
Pimienta holds the record for tackles in a season at 198, but Carlton isn’t likely to break that with just 106 this year.
If he breaks 127, he will not only make it into the top ten, he will break his own Troy FBS record for most tackles in a season.
Regardless, this has been a banner year for Carlton Martial. He’s No. 2 in the country in total tackles, behind only Old Dominion’s Jason Henderson, who has 166.
As Coach Sumrall said at Trojan Talk, Martial would take the victories, the rivalry trophies and the bowl berths before he took the record.
That’s the real reason we respect him so much.
Troy is on track for success it hasn’t seen in at least five years, and a comeback year that dwarfs 2016.
It’s Coach Sumrall’s job to keep the players focused on winning the next game, something he’s done possibly better than any Troy coach.
It’s our job to analyze this team, though, and whatever happens, it’s been the most fun season yet.