Sustaining Success: Troy Basketball’s Historic Start

Last night’s victory over Texas State was the tenth win for the Trojans this season, which is the average number of wins per year so far in the Scott Cross era… in less than half a season. Win just three more games this year and Troy is guaranteed its third best season in the past decade. Seven more, out of 17, and it’s only behind the 2017 title run.

It’s a massively positive sign, and proof that “taking the stairs” is working. Sustained success doesn’t happen overnight.

This tenth win is also massively positive in a historical context. No matter what happens against Coastal Carolina on Saturday, the Trojans have accomplished an impressive feat, with 10 wins in the first 15 games.

Granted, the 2017 title run is more than enough proof that anything can happen in February, but if we look at where Trojan teams that started 10-5 or better ended up, we start to see a pattern.

That’s some pretty decent company, right? Of the 27 seasons listed, 14 either won the conference title or made a tournament appearance. Even if this season flounders, that’s exactly half.

Now, I will admit that 13 of the seasons listed come from before 1970. Again, that’s roughly half, and I can’t help it if the 1950s Troy basketball teams were really good. Like, I’m blown away they never won an NAIA title.

Still, let’s shift the focus to something more modern, say, the past 40 years?

That’s better. You can still see though, out of the 13 there, six are still marked by tournament appearance or conference title. That’s less than half but still close.

The only non-Maestri example on there, by the way, is the 1980-81 season. It’s also the only non-winning season. Troy started 10-5 and ended the season 3-8 to finish with a 13-13 record.

For reasons you can probably guess, Don Maestri was hired just two years later. That 1983 entry? It’s his first season at Troy. In 1982-83 and 1984-85, the Trojans nearly fell apart, mimicking the downfall of the 1981 season. They held on though, and Don Maestri only had a single losing season in his first 11 years.

The 1988 season is clearly a turning point here, too. Troy began the season on a 14-1 run, just the second time ever. The first time? 1967, coincidentally the last season Troy won 20 games to this point.

Then the dam broke. Troy made the Division II tournament three times in six years, winning an average of more than 20 games per season in that time. The Trojans’ last game at the D-II level was the national championship, and even though they lost it was the peak of an incredible run.

Most importantly: for five straight seasons, Troy began with a 12-3 record. Every single one.

That stretch correlates with Troy’s second-most successful run of all-time. What was the first? That’s right, the 1950s and 1960s Trojans.

That’s four conference titles, ten NAIA tournament appearances, and 15 years of AT LEAST 18 wins, with one exception.

Seeing a pattern here?

The post-war Red Wave deserves its own deep dive, and we’ve covered how Maestri’s early-90s Troy teams were historically dominant in another way. Still, it’s clear the common denominator is this early-season success. Even Maestri’s second wind in the early 2000s shows similar hints toward success.

The 2010 season is yet more proof that the second-half performance can make or break your team. There are individual seasons sprinkled throughout Troy’s history that show how important spring streaks are, but looking at the context it’s clear these early games provide a seriously important foundation if you want to be dominant.

Right now, the Trojans have established a really good foundation.

Sustained success doesn’t happen overnight, but it pays to start early.