The Other Side of the Wall: Appalachian State

The time has come. For the second year in a row, Troy will host the Sun Belt title game.

Its opponent is nearly as familiar with this situation as Troy, if not more so. App State may trail Troy on the list of most Sun Belt Championships, but this is the Mountaineers’ fourth appearance in the Championship Game.

No matter how you count the 2020 Championship, no team has more appearances than App State.

Also, no matter the outcome of the game, Troy will maintain its claim to most conference championships and App State will stay at third on the list.

Team	App State
Time, Network	3 PM, ESPN
Current Record	8-4, 6-2
Troy’s Record	3-8
Last Matchup	No, thank you.
FPI Rank	63
FPI Win% (Troy)	68.5%
Spread	Troy -6.5

App State is by all accounts the best (and most eligible) of a gritty Eastern division, riding a five-game win streak into this title game. It’s a solid change of pace for a team that missed a bowl last year because it beat too many FCS teams.

Even this year, App didn’t exactly start on the right foot. The Mountaineers started the season 3-4, their best win was either 2-10 ECU or 2-10 ULM, and all four wins were determined by a single possession.

I couldn’t find the exact conference standings from after week 7, but College Football News wasn’t high on them the following week.

Talk about a comeback. The ‘Neers righted the ship, beat the Goliath in Harrisonburg and surged into Saturday’s game with an eight-win record.

That’s the four-time conference champion I know. The excitement is so palpable, Thomas (TK) Sherrill, a North Carolina-based community journalist and opinionated former App State blogger with the patience of a saint, offered to explain the turnaround for this year’s App State team.

What does the warning label for this team say?
Contents may be hazardous to your health.
Many teams fight over being WRU, QBU, DBU, etc. App State is Heart Attack U.
The 40-point fourth-quarter versus UNC last year. The Texas A&M win. College Gameday. The Hai[REDACTED] versus Troy, blowing a 28-3 lead to JMU, single-score losses at Coastal and Marshall, double OT loss at Georgia Southern. And that’s just last year.
This year it was losing the starting QB in the first half of the first game, double OT at Chapel Hill, double-digit comeback versus ECU, the heartbreaker at Wyoming, escaping ULM with a win, the Coastal loss at home at the end, the ODU loss at the end (it was targeting and the Sun Belt knows it), double-digit comeback versus Southern Miss and beating JMU in overtime.
The last month has mostly been a welcome reprieve from weekly heart attacks (the early 14-3 deficit versus Georgia Southern last Saturday was a palpitation), but we’re prepared for more stress and possible imminent death.
Victory tastes sweeter when you’ve put in the stress. I mean time.

What Taylor Swift song title best describes App State’s season? Why?
“Epiphany.” At a 3-4 record, the team went all in on a change from the 3-4 base defense to the Star Package, which is essentially five DB’s. It covered for a thin linebacker position and put more speed on the field.
It got off to a shaky start versus Southern Miss, but came together versus Marshall and has been off to the races since. The offense was already there, but now the defense could compliment their efforts. The Southern Miss win built confidence and you could see it versus Marshall the following week. Complete attitude change. That carried into a rout at Georgia State and then JMU, where the Sun Belt world found out. If this was a movie, the Star Defense would be Travis Kelce. So many green flags.
Note: The author is not a Swiftie, so this is fully based on a Wikipedia search.
I didn’t say song lyric, so that’s perfectly fine. I would’ve also accepted “Karma.”

In one word, describe the JMU win. Why that word?
One. App State is the one in JMU’s 11-1. JMU dealt with the distractions of their Attorney General’s grandstanding, College Gameday, schedule disruptions and the pressure of being undefeated against a largely unknown App State defense. No matter what they say, a game kicking off two hours after Lee Corso puts on the Duke Dog head is a distraction (needs to be 3.5 hours plus and even then you might need a miracle).
Their offense got rattled early and despite a ferocious comeback to force overtime, the Mountaineers made one more play to win it. And in winning, App State became the first-ever Sun Belt team to literally stop a federal lawsuit against the NCAA. Stopping the lawsuit is about as sweet as the Sun Belt East Division title, especially after 28-3 last year.
Not gonna lie, the rest of the conference celebrated with you there.

In one word, describe the Old Dominion loss. Why that word?
Bottom. That’s where App State was. In what was thought to be the easier part of the schedule, App State lost two in a row to go bottom of the Sun Belt East Division with five games left. The offense struggled and once again, Shawn Clark lost a one-score game. It got bad. There was a big “Fire Clark” sign on the hill versus Southern Miss. But one thing I heard throughout was that the team was still together.
Match, meet fuse.

Which Avenger is most like Coach Clark?
Incredible Hulk. Big, angry man who wears his emotions on his sleeves. Sometimes he almost seems lost for answers and repeats himself, like when Hulk got whuped by Thanos. But then a day later, he’s calm and composed like Bruce Banner. But then soon enough, he gets mad at something that happened earlier and ragdolls Loki, which in this metaphor would be Georgia State.
I won’t get into spoilers for Loki season two, but that’s a surprisingly apt metaphor. Ask me later.

What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Tyrek Funderburk, Jordan Favors and Ethan Johnson. All DB’s with interceptions in the last couple of weeks, plus they can fly to the ball on the boundary to limit gains and force crucial third downs. Favors in particular plays with reckless abandon, aka he’s got that dawg in him. They’ve all grown up in the last few weeks to become crucial to the Star Package. Honorable mention to defensive lineman Nate Johnson.
Another week with a tough secondary. Once again, I’m glad to have the wideouts that Troy does.

When App State snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Joey California slings it. Joey Aguilar has gone from Diablo Valley JuCo prospect to on the verge of being the Sun Belt’s single-season touchdown pass leader. He’s grown from a raw prospect to a true gunslinger, mainly as he learns to go through his progressions. The JMU game-winning touchdown was his second read, for instance. Aguilar has great pocket presence and puts the ball in his receivers’ hands often.
I’m excited to see a strong passing game. I feel like the secondary hasn’t been challenged for a while.

If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
App State got crucial yards on the ground. Don’t know this for certain, but I believe App State’s 61 net rush yards versus JMU were the least ever in an App win. It would be hard to duplicate that, despite Troy’s great front seven. App fought for tough yards in the first quarters versus both Georgia State and Georgia Southern and the holes were there for the outside and inside stretch runs later in the game. Whether it’s Nate Noel, Anderson Castle, Kayne Roberts or Marquel Haywood, App will continue to run the ball in effort to find something.
As our good friend Jahmal Kennedy pointed out, App State has the second best scoring offense in the conference. Troy held Nos. 1 and 3 to 17 and 16 points, respectively.

What chicken joint is most associated with the team, college, fanbase or city? If not chicken, BBQ?
Bojangles. If you wanna choke yourself, eat two Bojangles biscuits without drinking anything. Some people like that.
Anyway, the chicken’s a classic that has a nice kick to it, just like the App State Football team. That goes for fried chicken, the chicken sandwich or the chicken biscuit. I would give a BBQ answer as well, but wars have started for worse reasons and I am a man of peace. Just make sure it ain’t dry, has a nice smoke ring, and don’t use BBQ as a verb.
Respect. Bojangles is a dark horse candidate for best chicken joint. It doesn’t win, but it has a strong following.

What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
1. Do y’all miss being in the East Division?
Not really, but only because of the new teams. The West teams, mostly South Alabama, Southern Miss and Louisiana, are much more similar culturally, and I prefer being in the Jags’ division rather than a protected rivalry. I do miss the Georgias and App State, but apart from them the East teams are just too different.
And since it’s Championship Week and the people are thirsty for content, here’s another one.
2. How did Sumrall turn Troy from a middling 5-7 Sun Belt team with a slow defense into a Top G5 team in literally no time? And you can’t say “transfer portal.”
Well first of all that defense wasn’t “slow.” In the season before Sumrall, Troy had the No. 21 passing defense and the No. 24 total defense in the country. Hot take? Brandon Hall (2021 defensive coordinator) made the defense better in his last year than in Neal Brown’s last year. The offensive head coach at the time just couldn’t make both halves work together.
Second, Sumrall didn’t come back to an empty cupboard. The previous staff’s ability to recruit, and their success at keeping some of Neal Brown’s players meant the 2022 Trojans returned more players than most teams around the country. But I’m already giving them too much credit.
Third, Troy was a top G5 team under Neal Brown, who set the foundation for the program. His successor may have torn down the wall, but three years wasn’t enough to change how the program and the players operate.
Finally and most importantly, Sumrall is a great head coach. He already had seniors, alums and former players on his side. He won over the younger guys instantly, and he clearly has them prepared mentally for the fight each week.
Sumrall is a brilliant manager, both commanding a staff and implementing strategy on game day. He’s brought in coaches that can craft the team he wants, and he’s one of the best recruiters in history. He took the mess he inherited and rebuilt on the foundation he helped lay.
2022 was a perfect storm, no doubt, but it clearly wasn’t a fluke.

So App State is a surging, team on a mission. The question is, how have the ‘Neers strung together five wins?

Let’s look at the comparison chart.

Stat	Per Game	Rank	Comparable team	TROY stat against comp
Passing Offense	278.7 ypg	22	Texas State (21)	276 yds.
Rushing Offense	176.9 ypg	45	Georgia State (50)	105 yds.
Scoring Offense	35.8 ppg	17	Texas State (16)	13 pts.
Passing Defense	214 ypg	47	South Alabama (39)	271 yds.
Rushing Defense	170.3 ypg	99	ULM (100)	82 yds.*
Scoring Defense	26.2 ppg	64	Army (38)/South Alabama (36)	19 pts./28 pts.

App State has the offense of Texas State (minus the run game) and the defense of South Alabama (minus the run defense). That’s good news for the October Trojans, but the game against the Bobcats was a turning point defensively.

Troy only gave up 250 passing yards to Kansas State and Western Kentucky, two strong offenses. Then, Texas State picked up 276 with a good quarterback… then ULM threw for 243 and Louisiana threw for 282.

As Thomas mentioned earlier, the offense hasn’t really changed, except maybe focusing less on the run game. App State averaged 34.2 rushes per game during the streak, compared to 40.1 in the seven games before.

At first glance, a more one-dimensional team seems like a good thing, but opponents have stayed in the game with their passing attack.

Those five teams I just mentioned threw the ball more than 30 times against Troy. SFA was the only other team to do so.

App State isn’t prone to turnovers, not lately. North Carolina, Wyoming, Coastal and Southern Miss won the battle, and the Eagles (the most recent matchup on this list) were the only losers.

In fact, App State has forced 11 turnovers in the last four games, including two against James Madison. The Neers got to the quarterback five times, the most this season and forced three fumbles that game despite only recovering one.

Much like on offense, the defense’s main change was cutting down on the run. In the first eight games of the season, the Neers gave up at least 4.36 yards per rush, with one exception (2-10 ECU). In the last four games, the Neers allowed no more than 4.32 yards per rush.

So how does Troy stack up against App State’s opponents?

Stat	Per Game	Rank	Comparable team	App stat against comp
Passing Offense	273.8 ypg	29	Coastal Carolina (33)	373 yds.
Rushing Offense	149.5 ypg	77	Old Dominion (75)	221 yds.
Scoring Offense	29.7 ppg	52	Coastal Carolina (59)	27 pts.
Passing Defense	198.0 ypg	29*	Coastal Carolina (43)	305 yds.
Rushing Defense	102.1 ypg	13*	East Carolina (29)/Wyoming (50)	239 yds./217 yds.
Scoring Defense	16.7 ppg	10*	East Carolina (43)/Wyoming (45)	43 pts./19 pts.

So from their perspective, Troy’s offense is going to be one of the most effective they’ve seen all year. Coastal absolutely torched App State’s defense through the air, and Old Dominion’s run game picked up the third-most rushing yards of any opponent.

Then on defense, Troy is going to be the strongest they’ve seen all year. Coastal gave up more than 300 yards passing in its win, but Troy allows 13.5 fewer yards through the air per game.

Also, ECU statistically is an outlier, as a 2-10 team with top-50 rushing and scoring defenses. That’s why I found the next closest team for the other defensive stats: Wyoming and Wyoming.

Both ECU and Wyoming gave up more than 200 yards rushing to App State, but Troy allows a whole 20 fewer rush yards per game and 5.75 fewer points each game than even ECU.

Troy is overdue for a forced fumble, so I expect at least one turnover to go the Trojans’ way, but I statistically expect App State to win that margin. Both teams get to the quarterback, but App has the advantage in sacks allowed.

Similarly, Troy has the advantage in third down situations, the red zone and time of possession. These little things will make a difference, especially when the Neers haven’t faced a defense this strong.

Make no mistake though. This will be a shootout.

Prepare accordingly.

Troy wins, 31-24.

Thanks again to my fellow Thomas for the great answers. Follow him on Twitter.