The Other Side of the Wall: Arkansas State
Two’s a streak y’all. No matter how you slice it, this Troy team is gaining momentum.
Next in line? A Red Wolves team that’s showing a bit more life than they should.
Is Arkansas State for real? Or is their three-game win streak the product of weak opponents?
Like Georgia State, we’ll find out soon enough.
| Team | Arkansas State |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 3 pm, ESPN+ |
| Current Record | 3-2, 1-0 |
| Troy’s Record | 8-10 |
| Last Matchup | W, 48-19 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 6th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 114 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 82.3% |
| Spread | Troy -17 |
Unlike Troy’s previous opponent, Troy holds the win streak in this series. Troy lost to Blake Anderson’s Red Wolves in 2016 and 2019, but the coach who shall not be named put 28 or 29-point beatdowns on stAte in 2020 and 2021.
Add in that tense de facto conference title game in 2017 and you have a 3-2 record that favors Troy since Anderson and Neal Brown took over at the respective schools.
Speaking of 3-2, both teams are 3-2 with a conference win under their belts. The Red Wolves held off a struggling Southern Miss team in a shootout two weeks ago.
It’s a far cry from the start of the season, when stAte was outscored 110-3 by Oklahoma and Memphis to start the year.
For more on that rollercoaster of a year, I reached out to the guys at AStateNation.
What does the warning label for this team say?
Warning: They are not who you think they were. Things have changed and the Red Wolves are getting better. The next four weeks will show how much but they are winning some games now that they lost a year ago.
I do think the biggest question is: is Southern Miss bad… or is Arkansas State good? The stats point toward the latter.
What Taylor Swift song title best describes the Red Wolves’ expectations? Why?
Honestly, I know no Taylor Swift songs. I know James Taylor, and Roger Taylor (Queen). Do they count?
Absolutely. I think we could take “Hard Times” from one artist and “Under Pressure” from the other.
In one word, describe the Southern Miss win. Why that word?
Validation. Could be the victory that is the one that turns the program around.
I was impressed. I think it’s two teams that collided and now are on opposite trajectories.
In one word, describe the Memphis loss. Why that word?
Futile. A game where the defense did not play that poorly but the offense fired blanks all night long. A-State fans left that one with no hope for 23.
Editor’s note: The Memphis game was two weeks before USM.
Which Avenger is most like Coach Jones?
Capt. America. Butch is pretty straight laced, no frills, 100 percent focused.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Mackey, Straker, Justin Parks. (Javante) Mackey is an emerging star at linebacker and (Melique) Straker is a playmaker at linebacker and team leader, same for Parks, who happens to be an Alabama product. Parks plays safety.
Parks is from Gardendale, and his bio says Troy recruited him. He’s second on the depth chart this week though.
When State snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Hopefully the QB catches it. With Jaylen Raynor at QB the offense has come to life. We say that also knowing the Red Wolves have not seen a defense like Troy. This game will be a measuring stick for the program. For a true freshman Raynor has been dynamic.
We’re about to cover all of that. I will mention that both teams are in the negative for turnover margin.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
Pigs are flying and Hades has ice caps. Seriously it means the Red Wolves are farther along than we started and Troy is in deep trouble with 2 conference losses. I would say the Red Wolves will have played their best game in five or six years.
I didn’t think it was that dire from your perspective, but yeah, if Troy loses we’re going to see some serious changes.
What chicken joint is most associated with the team, college, fanbase or city? If not chicken, BBQ?
I don’t think they have a store per se anymore but my spouse swears by the BBQ nachos served at the game (Lewis BBQ). She recommends double meat.
I’m down for it. Love some BBQ nachos.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one?
Do you think we’ll be overconfident?
I don’t think overconfident is the word. I think Jaylen’s stats gave your fanbase high hopes, but you’re right. Arkansas State has never faced a defense like Troy’s before.
Let’s break that all down.
Part of stAte’s struggle was finding a quarterback, and in Jaylen Raynor they found a stud. He’s started the last two games, throwing for an average of 231 yards and 5 touchdowns per game.
Let me say that again. He’s AVERAGING 231 yards and 5 touchdowns in two games.
Much like Darren Grainger, he’s an effective part of the team’s run game. He may have half as many yards as Ja’Quez Cross, the lead tailback, but he’s averaging nearly as many rush yards per game (63 to Cross’s 67.4).
It’s important to note the third head of the cerberus, Zak Wallace, who has more attempts and fewer yards. At 6’0″ 229, he’s clearly the thunder to Cross’s lightning.
The three split 40+ carries in each of the the three wins, picking up 173 yards on the ground or more.
The passing game didn’t quite change across the five games, except for the player slinging it around. The loss to Memphis had the most passes of any game so far, followed by the win over UMass. The other two wins only saw 11 passes each.
Much like Troy, this is a run-first team with an effective quarterback.
The question is… how effective were the defenses they’ve faced?
Bringing back the charts from last week.
| Team | ASU Score | FPI | Record | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | 31-7 | FCS | 0-5 | (none) |
| Southern Miss | 44-37 | 119 | 1-4 | Alcorn State |
| UMass | 52-28 | 133 | 1-5 | New Mexico State |
| Troy | TBD | 74 | 3-2 | Stephen F. Austin, Western Kentucky, Georgia State |
At least last week, Troy was a comparable foe to the other Sun Belt team on the list. In this case, former Troy AD Jeremy McClain has already fired a warning shot, telling fans:
“Unfortunately, football season has started much slower than many of us had hoped, and I know there is frustration for our fans, our staff, and our student-athletes. The importance of being successful in football is not lost on me or anyone associated with the university, so we will continue to work to get it right.”
https://southernmiss.com/news/2023/10/2/general-amessage-from-the-ad
So an FCS, a barely-not-FCS and a team that’s struggling to get it together. I’d say Troy measures a bit closer to the first two opponents, but Raynor didn’t play against them.
Let’s throw in Memphis anyway.
| Ranking | Memphis | USM | UMass | Troy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Off | 36 | 80 | 55 | 42 |
| Passing Def | 46 | 41 | 95 | 46 |
| Rushing Off | 63 | 96 | 77 | 80 |
| Rushing Def | 86 | 120 | 118 | 15 |
And that was a good call. Memphis and Troy have the same passing defense and a similar passing offense. Troy’s rush defense is literally the best unit on this sheet, by a mile.
I’m confident that Troy will hold this team, even though Raynor hasn’t seen a defense like Troy’s. My one issue is on the other side of the ball—the area I haven’t mentioned yet.
Troy’s rushing offense may be one of the worst in the country, but its effectiveness should not be lost on anyone. Last year, Kimani Vidal picked up 200 yards against the Red Wolves.
Last year, the Red Wolves gave up 162.4 yards per game rushing. This year, they’re giving up 161.2.
Southern Miss and Oklahoma rushed for 200+ yards, and Memphis hit 150. There’s no reason Kimani Vidal couldn’t set another record with a fourth 200-yard rushing game.
Troy exposed a supposedly strong Georgia State team last week in a game that felt closer than it was. This is a team that’s trying to gain momentum, with a supposedly strong quarterback.
I just don’t think this is going to be that close.
Troy wins, 31-13.
Special thanks to Jeff and the guys at AStateNation. Give them a follow on Twitter.