The Other Side of the Wall: Cure Bowl Edition
The moment has finally arrived. Troy is playing in a bowl game.
After three seasons of lackluster results, Coach Sumrall proved to be the right man to lead the Trojans, making up for recent struggles by winning a conference title and tying the most wins Troy has ever had at the FBS level.
A win on Friday would not only break the 2017 record, it would move this season into the “greatest season ever” debate.
But we know what Coach would say.
So who’s the team that stands in Troy’s way?
| Team | #25 UTSA |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 2 pm, ESPN |
| 2022 Record | 11-2, 8-0 |
| Best Win | North Texas, 48-27 |
| Worst Loss | Texas, 20-41 |
| Troy’s Record | First meeting |
| Last Matchup | N/A |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 1st CUSA |
| FPI Rank | 54 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 43.7% |
| Spread (At open) | -1 |
The Roadrunners’ season feels a lot like Troy’s. Like, the similarities are scary.
- A dramatic loss to a bitter G5 team (#24 Houston – L, 35-37 OT)
- A 20-point loss to a Power 5 team that competed for its conference (#20 Texas – L, 20-41)
- A dramatic win over Army (41-38 OT)
- A close win over Western Kentucky (31-28)
- A 24-point comeback win over a conference opponent (UTEP)
- Starting 1-2, only to rattle off ten straight wins
- A decisive win in the conference title game (North Texas – W, 48-27)
- Finally cracking the top 25 after said title win
It’s almost like looking in a mirror.
| Troy | UTSA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 47 | 12 | -35 |
| Rushing Offense | 106 | 50 | -56 |
| Scoring Offense* | 80 | 12 | -68 |
| Total Offense | 79 | 9 | -70 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 38 | 101 | +63 |
| Rushing Defense | 22 | 70 | +48 |
| Scoring Defense | 8 | 64 | +56 |
| Total Defense | 19 | 90 | +71 |
| Turnover Margin | 53 | 34 | -19 |
Almost.
These teams are literally the opposite of each other: Troy is a monster on defense, stopping anyone who opposes them and using its explosive offense to stay ahead.
UTSA is a monster on offense that’s not afraid of a shootout, because it can score on anyone.
Let’s get a better idea of what the Trojans are up against. Let’s bring back the national rankings and include the Troy opponent that’s closest to their ranking.
| Troy | UTSA | Closest Opponent Analogy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 47 | 12 | Western Kentucky (2) |
| Rushing Offense | 106 | 50 | South Alabama (57) |
| Scoring Offense* | 80 | 12 | Western Kentucky (18) |
| Total Offense | 79 | 9 | Ole Miss (8), Western Kentucky (10) |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 38 | 101 | Texas State (95) |
| Rushing Defense | 22 | 70 | Western Kentucky (74) |
| Scoring Defense | 8 | 64 | Texas State (62) |
| Total Defense | 19 | 90 | Arkansas State (91) |
| Turnover Margin | 53 | 34 | South Alabama (31) |
So basically we’re looking at Western Kentucky’s offense… and a defense that’s awful.
Thankfully, the overall analogous team defensively is Arkansas State, a team against whom Troy rushed for 200 yards. The other two represent Jarret Doege’s final hurrah, as the game-winning backup.
The run game should be much better than it was in those performances, and Gunnar Watson’s MVP performance makes me confident Troy won’t need Doege heroics. Still, it’s good to know he’s right there.
UTSA is giving up 26.5 points per game, while Troy scores… 26.2 points per game. The Roadrunners have scored 39 points per game… but the Trojans haven’t given up 30 points to a single offense yet.
That’s a clear key to victory. First team to 30 wins.
But how does UTSA score? Rather, who does the scoring for them?
| Player | Yards | % of Team | Touchdowns | % of Team | MISC. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 4012 | 33 | Comp % | ||
| 1Frank Harris* | 3865 | 96.33% | 31 | 93.94% | 71.10% |
| Rushing | 2307 | 28 | Yds/Rush | ||
| HMKevorian Barnes^ | 713 | 30.91% | 6 | 21.43% | 6.3 |
| HMBrenden Brady | 699 | 30.29% | 9 | 32.14% | 4.5 |
| Frank Harris* | 588 | 25.49% | 9 | 32.14% | 4.9 |
| Trelon Smith | 190 | 8.24% | 2 | 7.14% | 3.5 |
| Receiving | 4012 | 33 | Yds/Catch | ||
| 1Zakhari Franklin | 1100 | 27.42% | 14 | 42.42% | 12.79 |
| 2Joshua Cephus | 985 | 24.55% | 6 | 18.18% | 11.32 |
| 2De’Corian Clark | 741 | 18.47% | 8 | 24.24% | 14.53 |
| HMOscar Cardenas | 376 | 9.37% | 2 | 6.06% | 14.46 |
| Tykee Ogle-Kellogg | 211 | 5.26% | 2 | 6.06% | 17.58 |
Would you look at that.
A rushing attack by committee and a 3000+ yard passing attack, with several wideouts and tight ends sharing the passing load.
It’s almost the same scheme as Troy, except the quarterback is more mobile. The Roadrunners even use pistol formations, motion and swing passes.
You could say UTSA is what Coastal Carolina was supposed to be. It’s Western Kentucky, but more balanced. It’s South Alabama with a running quarterback.
It might be the strongest offense Troy has faced, at least since Ole Miss. The upside is UTSA’s defense is weaker than many of the teams Troy has beaten.
That’s all from Troy’s perspective though.
For insight from the Roadrunner perspective we reached out to Javi Cardenas with BirdsUp, the UTSA 247 site. We shook up our standard set of questions for this bowl preview.
Describe UTSA like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
Are you looking for a family friendly, reliable companion, that will make you pull your hair out at times? Well, the Roadrunners of UTSA are for you. They will always be there for you during the good times and the bad. While things might change the Runners’ will be by your side.
Love that—a loyal program, loyal fans—especially for such a young program too.
What movie title best describes the Roadrunners’ season? Why?
Ahhh…let’s ignore the plot of the movie complete for this one. For the title alone let’s go with Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Six out of the Roadrunners twelve games came down to one possession. It seemed for most of the season the Roadrunners were allergic to winning games by more than one possession.
Here’s where I get to do the Troy comparison. The Trojans and Roadrunners BOTH went 5-1 in one-possession games, and those losses were either week one or week three. You’re not going to find two teams that had more comeback wins put together, I guarantee it.
In one word, describe the UAB win. Why that word?
Relief. UTSA had a knack all season long of making games they should’ve dominated in incredibly close. The game against UAB was no different unfortunately. UTSA was up 31 to 17 in the 4th quarter before UAB stormed back to force overtime. Fortunately for UTSA they were able to pull it out.
As previously mentioned, Troy was the same way. The only difference was UTSA’s games added 20-30 points to either side. These are two gutsy teams that don’t roll over.
In one word, describe the Houston loss. Why that word?
Heartbreak. UTSA was one 12 man on the field penalty way from possibly playing in the Cotton Bowl versus USC instead of Tulane. Maybe that wouldn’t have mattered and the Playoff Committee would’ve still picked Tulane, but man would that have been a great debate to be having if you are a UTSA fan.
More similarities. Troy feels that way about App State. Honestly though, both of these teams should have been in the Cotton Bowl conversation a month ago.
Which Hogwarts house is Coach Traylor in?
Traylor strikes me as a big Hufflepuff guy. The hard-working and loyal seems traits seem to fit Traylor well. Could’ve left last season for bigger and better things, but he stuck it out and signed a long term contract. Argument could be made for Gryffindor, but where is the fun in that?
I feel you. That loyalty from the first answer resonates with this, and I LOVE his response to rumors last week.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
- Trey Moore, an outside linebacker who leads the team in sacks (6) and TFL’s (13.5). The redshirt freshman has surpassed all expectations for the Roadrunners. He will be a force for years to come.
- Corey Mayfield, a corner who will be playing his last game as a Roadrunner. Would not be surprised to see his name called in the draft next year. He is second in the team with 3 interceptions and pass breakup with 12.
- Clifford Chattman, UTSA’s second leading tackler this season (83). He is currently on 4-game interception streak. He also leads the team in pass breakups with 14.
When UTSA snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Frank Harris will happen. He has complete control of the offense, with good reason. He has a wide variety of offensive weapons at his disposal. A lot of the offense is predicated on RPO concepts. Harris can use his wide receivers that have nearly 1K yards each. His freshman of the year running back that seems to get better every game. Or he can just take off running himself.
See, that sounds just like South Alabama or Western with all the weapons, and Grayson McCall at quarterback. Coach Sumrall even called this the best offense Troy has faced all year. It’s that or Ole Miss, who also has a star freshman running back.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
This game is about as even as it can get. Vegas also agrees making this a pick ‘em so there might not be any underdog in this one. I do think that if UTSA is able to score over 30 points we will wake up Saturday morning with the Roadrunners being victorious.
Agreed. First team to 30 wins.
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even though we’re in Orlando)?
I think of late Pinkerton’s BBQ has taken claim of the top BBQ spot in the city. Although originally out of Houston, Pinkerton’s moved into downtown San Antonio and have taken the city by storm. They are also avid supporters of UTSA football so that doesn’t hurt either.
Oh my god. Y’all just LOOK at this menu. Duck and Sausage Jumbalaya? Rosemary Bacon mac and cheese? Bro, this may be the top spot I’ve found all year. Sign me UP.
Is UTSA a Coke or Pepsi school?
UTSA has gotten a lot of things right over the last few years. The one they haven’t quite got right is the soda situation. They are a Pepsi school.Oh.
Completely valid response. It also makes me a little nervous. After beating Coastal, Troy is 1-1 against Pepsi schools. The Trojans are 10-1 against Coke schools.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
How is UTSA viewed by the Troy fanbase? Is it an opponent you are excited about facing?
Troy fans are excited to play this up-and-coming (comparatively) team! We see a lot of similarities (as evidenced by this article), and we also see this as a game against the new-look American Athletic Conference, so there’s a ton of pride on the line. We’re both having an amazing season, and I definitely hate that we have to face each other to end it. That said, we know it’s the best Group of 5 bowl matchup, and we’re looking forward to an incredible game.
Troy has faced similar teams all year. This may be a situation where Troy is forced to mount a comeback, but it’s been in that position.
If this is a shootout, Troy has handled it.
Frank Harris may be the best quarterback Troy’s seen all year, but this is the best defense he’s faced. That’s not the battle I’m concerned about.
I have more confidence in Troy’s offense than I do UTSA’s defense.
First one to 30 wins.
Final prediction: 31-28 Troy
Again, special thanks to Javi. You can follow him on Twitter here.