The Other Side of the Wall: Georgia State

Back in the win column, and back on the road to the closest non-division opponent for any team in the conference.

The Panthers have been known to be, well, mediocre at best, but this year they’re making some waves. They’re 4-0.

Team	Georgia State
Time, Network	6 pm, ESPN+
2022 Record	4-8
Troy’s Record	5-4
Last Matchup	L, 10-37
Preseason Conf. Rank	6th SBC East
FPI Rank	74
FPI Win% (Troy)	32.9%
Spread	Georgia State -1.5

Troy lost the last three games in a row to Georgia State, from 2019-2021. There’s a clear correlation there.

Before that head coach, Troy was 5-1 against the Panthers, and undefeated at home.

With the addition of the new four teams, Troy left the East division. This is the Trojans’ first trip to Atlanta since, and wouldn’t you know it, the Panthers are somehow undefeated.

To gauge how that fanbase is feeling, I reached out to Brady Weiler at Panther Talk.

What does the warning label for this team say?
“BEWARE OF TRAIN HORN”
Yeah… that’s accurate.

What Taylor Swift song title best describes the Panthers’ expectations this year? Why?
I”m going basic, partly because I’m not a major Swiftie but also because it fits – Shake It Off.
Coming off a 4-8 season in 2022, there was a lot of doubt inside and outside the GSU fanbase about what direction this program was heading in entering Year 7 under Shawn Elliott. But whether the haters have been hate-hate-hate-hate-hating or just voting them 6th out of 7 in the Sun Belt preseason coaches’ poll, through 4 games, the Panthers have been shaking it off and getting to work.
That does fit. Out of the gate, Georgia State has won as many games as last year.

Which Avenger is most like Coach Elliott?
Feel like this is the layup of this question prompt for you guys – he’s mild-mannered by day but full of energy and you wouldn’t like him when he’s angry. Hulk Smash!
Oh it was 100% a layup. I knew the answer before I hit send.

What game from last year stands out most to fans? Why?
You could go several different, all similarly disappointing ways with this, as Georgia State had second-half leads in 7 of the 8 games they ended up losing in 2022. But the biggest and most glaring example was the 34-14 halftime lead at James Madison they couldn’t hang on to. They lost 42-40 to drop to 4-7, confirming they’d go bowl-less for the first time since 2018.
It was perfectly emblematic of the flaws last year’s team had and was a major reason why the team took on the mantra of “making themselves uncomfortable” this offseason, reinventing their strength program under new S&C coordinator Mike Sirignano and making sure they’re able to close out games this season.
Loss or not, I think the entire conference was impressed that GSU took JMU to the final whistle.

What game are fans looking forward to most? Why?
Everyone in the Panther Family would be lying if they said they didn’t circle the Georgia Southern game every year. Rivalries are the lifeblood of this sport, but more to the “looking forward to” part, State has owned the series, winning 6 of the first 9 meetings and batting away Southern fans’ past suggestions that GSU could never compete with them.
Love a good in-state rivalry.

What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Let’s highlight three of the new faces on this defense – NG Henry Bryant, OLB Kevin Swint and CB Gavin Pringle.

• Bryant will slide under the radar on the stat sheet, with just 12 tackles through 4 games, but he’s the linchpin of a Georgia State front that has allowed just 89 rushing yards a game to date. The Louisville transfer has been the best-graded defensive player for GSU per PFF College with a 78.8.
• Swint came from Clemson this winter and was tasked – along with Shamar McCollum – with replacing Jamil Muhammad, who has 3 sacks in 4 games for USC. He’s lived up to the big-program billing with 2 sacks, 4 TFLs (each team-leading) and really sterling work in setting the edge on run plays.
• Pringle is another of the transfers brought in to bolster the GSU defense, coming from FCS Bucknell, where he earned All-Patriot League honors every year. He’s been exactly as advertised as a lockdown corner with 2 INTs, one of them a pick-six against Rhode Island. But like the other two I chose here, he has been just as impressive coming up and playing the run. That’ll be important in a game where the defense will have to wrangle Kimani Vidal.

When Georgia State snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Statistically, an inside zone run. It’s the bread and butter of Shawn Elliott’s offensive philosophy and he’ll keep going back to the well because, eventually, that 2 to 4-yard gain is going to turn into a big gainer. Admittedly, Troy has as stingy a defense as GSU will face all season, but that’s not going to scare Coach Elliott off of his intentions to Run The Damn Ball.
But more generally this year, what’s been happening when Georgia State snaps the ball is QB Darren Grainger reading the defense and putting the offense in the best possible play. The QB in this offense breaks the huddle every down with a run call and a pass call and gets full autonomy to choose the play off what he’s seeing.
Grainger has been clinical at that in 2023, picking the run when he spies a light box or taking a shot to one of his reliable WRs – say, leading man Robert Lewis – if they’re getting single coverage with no help over the top. He also put on 15 pounds in the aforementioned revamped strength program this offseason and his deep balls have never been crisper. Bottom line – the story of the Georgia State offense so far has been DG’s steady hands at the controls.
Spoiler alert: the data backs all this up.

If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
[This line has moved around a bit, but as I wrote this, Georgia State was a 1.5 point favorite] If Troy wins, their defense will have lived up to billing and been the sternest test on that side of the ball for Georgia State in 2023. Darren Grainger is personally responsible for zero (0) turnovers so far this season, so while the Trojans forcing a costly mistake out of him might be difficult, it could go a long way to getting a road W if they can flip the game with a takeaway.
On the other side, the early returns on Chad Staggs’ tenure as defensive coordinator have been encouraging, but the D has had some coverage lapses at the back end. It particularly burned them when Rhode Island dropped 35 in the season opener, but they’ve been able to avoid those big plays turning into touchdowns in the three games since. If Gunnar Watson and his receivers can hit on a couple long TD passes and avoid testing the Panthers’ Sun Belt-leading red zone defense (7 scores allowed in 13 trips), it’ll be their best chance of grabbing the win.
Win turnovers and make big pass plays. Troy has proven it can do one of those things.

What chicken joint is most associated with the team, college, or fanbase? If not chicken, BBQ?
To me, if you’re talking about Atlanta chicken, you’re talking lemon pepper wings. Or lemon pepper wet if you’re worthy. So the easy answer here is JR Crickets. The original location on North Ave is a mere 3 miles from Center Parc Stadium, but there’s a newer location on Park Place that’s even closer – just a block away from several lecture halls on Georgia State’s campus.
Say less. I’m all about some lemon pepper.

What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
What’s your thoughts on the East-West divide of the Sun Belt causing this geographically close Troy-GSU series to happen much less frequently in football?
I’m a little bummed. While we get some fun matchups with Southern Miss and Louisiana, all those Troy alums in Atlanta missing out on games hurts. That honestly goes for both Georgia schools.

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Like Western Kentucky and Austin Reed, the Georgia State analysis begins with Darren Grainger. He’s more mobile than Reed, but compared to other Sun Belt quarterbacks he’s just as big a threat through the air.

	Stat	Sun Belt Rank	Sun Belt Comp.
Passing Yards	994	5	Grayson McCall (CCU, 1003)
Passing %	69.5	5	Bradley Carter (USA, 69.7)
Passing Efficiency	171.0	2	TJ Finley (TXST, 172.3)
Rushing Yards	263	10	OJ Arnold (GS, 256)
Rushing Avg.	5.6	14	Kaelon Black (JMU, 5.6)

Grainger’s dual-threat nature lends itself to the offense’s balanced attack. The Panthers average 191 yards rushing per game, which is their passing total against Rhode Island and just two yards shy of the Coastal Carolina total.

But Georgia State is a run-first offense. The Panthers (whether designed or not) have called run plays about 15 times more each game than pass plays.

Grainger’s not the main run threat, even though he was last year. Marcus Carroll has 508 yards on the ground, just behind Kimani Vidal (514) in conference (3) and national rank (5).

I’ve already compared Grainger to Grayson McCall, but offensively this team is similar to last year’s Coastal squad. The Panthers use a mixture of spread plays and option runs, giving Grainger freedom to read the defense and adjust.

I mean, just look at these statistics:

Stat	2023 GSU	2022 CCU
Passing YPA	9.38	8.86
Passing YPG	248.50	246.15
Rushing YPA	4.6	4.0
Rushing YPG	191.3	159.2

The problem is, like last year’s Coastal team, when Georgia State airs it out, it’s even more effective. The top four receivers get more than half the looks, but Grainger clearly has a favorite target: Robert Lewis.

That’s right. Lewis vs. Lewis.

More than one in every four passes goes to Robert Lewis, and he has nearly 100 yards each game. Only one other person has caught a touchdown pass for them this year.

That person is the No. 2 receiver, Tailique Williams. He and No. 3, Jacari Carter, have 26 catches and nearly 100 yards per game together.

The Trojans did well against last year’s Chants, but this year’s linebacking corps will need to step up to accomplish that same outcome.

If the Panthers offense is 2022 Coastal, the defense is 2023 James Madison: great at stopping the run, weak against the pass.

Stat	2023 GSU	2023 JMU
Passing YPA	8.0	8.7
Passing YPG	311.8	314.5
Rushing YPA	3.0	1.4
Rushing YPG	89.3	41.5

That’s good and bad news. Troy’s offense needs to maintain its balanced attack to work effectively. Thankfully, the lessons learned against JMU can be applied in Atlanta. Run the ball to set up the pass.

Then, Gunnar (and Troy’s Lewis) will get fantastic opportunities against this secondary, depending on the O-Line play.

Georgia State hurried Grayson McCall four times last weekend, and it’s averaging one pick per game. The Panthers are also forcing a fumble each game, recovering 3 of 4 so far.

Troy has thrown three picks this year, so I expect at least one; I’m not worried so much about that as fumbles.

Troy is averaging more than three fumbles per game… and losing nearly two each game. Gunnar’s been sacked four or more times each game against FBS opponents.

Ultimately these little mistakes are the one hurdle keeping Troy from breaking through to the dominance from last year. It’s a dominance that Georgia State is tasting right now.

The question is… are the Panthers really that good, or are their opponents helping them out?

First, let’s compare the other guys.

Team	GSU Score	FPI	Record	Wins
Rhode Island	42-35	FCS	2-2	Stony Brook, Maine
UConn	35-14	126	0-4	(none)
Charlotte	41-25	105	1-3	SC State
Coastal Carolina	30-17	70	2-2	Duquesne, Jacksonville State
Troy	TBD	74	2-2	Stephen F. Austin, Western Kentucky

The defending Sun Belt Conference Championship contenders stand out against three unconvincing FCS-level teams. As in, only Troy and Coastal have FBS wins—and there’s a clear distinction between those two teams, too.

Coastal still has Grayson McCall, but it lost a lot of talent—including the head coach. The Chants fell off against real competition the last three games of last season, and its only FBS win this year is a first-year FBS team (Whup Jax).

Ranking	UConn	Charlotte	Coastal	Troy
Passing Off	115	110	31	38
Passing Def	52	109	51	59
Rushing Off	106	98	90	81
Rushing Def	94	88	107	20

Charlotte’s inept passing defense is the reason Grainger threw for nearly 500 yards, not because it held the run. On the other hand, Troy’s pass defense is better than all of them… and its run defense is on a completely different level.

Someone may be exposed.

Coastal’s offense kept it in the game, so Troy should find effectiveness, provided it doesn’t turn the ball over.

Unfortunately, I think that’s going to happen. How does Troy react?

Troy wins, 24-21.

Special thanks to Brady and the guys at Panther Talk. Give them a follow on Twitter.