The Other Side of the Wall: [Name Redacted]
It’s been 378 days since Troy claimed the Belt, its fifth win in a row and its first as a division opponent.
They don’t need an introduction. We circle their names every year before the calendar comes out.
Last year’s matchup was an intense defensive slugfest, and I’ll bet we’re in for another one this year.
Here’s what we’re up against.
| Team | 🚫 |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6:30 pm, ESPN2 |
| Current Record | 4-4 |
| Troy’s Record | 8-3 |
| Last Matchup | W, 10-6 |
| Current Conf. Rank | t-2nd SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 60 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 61.2% |
| Spread | Troy -5 |
Before we get into the stats, I’d like to thank the guys from The JagNation Radio Show for answering our set of questions for this year.
- What does the warning label for this team say?
Inconsistency to perform.
That seems to be the biggest struggle for South. I get it. - In one word, describe the Oklahoma State win. Why that word?
Flabbergasted, Because we expected to win but not by the margin we won by. - In one word, describe the Central Michigan loss. Why that word?
Embarrassing, Because of the way we threw the game at the end when it mattered most. - Which Avenger is most like Coach Wommack? Why?
Captain America because he reps the red, white, and blue.
Easiest answer all year. - What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
Trey Kiser- Because he flies around and takes peoples heads off.
Yam Banks – Ball Hawk.
Bubba Thomas – his ability to affect the run game - When South snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Screen Pass.
I see not much has changed. - If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
Everyone stayed calm and composed through difficult circumstances with only 5 days of rest and an injury to the QB. - We all know you can’t fake the Foo. What is your favorite thing to get at Foosackly’s?
Zaxby’s>Canes> Foosacklys.
Wow. I can’t even begin to fathom this response. It’s one thing to be wrong, but for you to be this wrong… and I’m taking up for a Mobile institution? I’m speechless honestly. - What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the
article)
Can you as a Troy Trojan say one nice thing about South Alabama?
I can say I appreciate you as a rival more than any other rival Troy has had over the years. There’s at least a top-level legitimacy that none of Troy’s former rivals brought to the table, and last season’s success made the game as exciting as ever. It made winning the Belt again that much sweeter too.
As they mentioned, South is struggling with inconsistency.
The Jags were in a much better position last year (5-1 before the game, 6-2 at this point in the year) but on paper this team is still likely the most talented in the conference. So what gives?
The obvious comparisons to me were JMU, Georgia State and Texas State. All three have an adept quarterback, a strong run game and a huge defensive front.
I also threw in WKU because of its passing attack, and looked at what how these teams stack up.
| Team | Pass Off (Rank) | Rush Off (Rank) | Scoring Off (Rank) | Pass Def (Rank) | Rush Def (Rank) | Scoring Def (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 258.5 (46) | 149.3 (74) | 32.1 (40) | 288.9 (127) | 48.9 (1) | 20.25 (30) |
| WKU | 292.8 (18) | 102.6 (116) | 29.9 (57) | 248.5 (103) | 218.6 (127) | 29.50 (98) |
| Georgia State | 224.0 (69) | 191.1 (22) | 30.4 (53) | 282.8 (125) | 118.8 (31) | 25.50 (65) |
| Texas State | 281.8 (28) | 201.2 (18) | 35.1 (22) | 266.8 (117) | 144.1 (66) | 28.75 (91) |
| 🚫 | 285.5 (25) | 168.8 (50) | 33.5 (31) | 191.5 (22) | 125.4 (40) | 21.12 (38) |
| Troy | 276.6 (33) | 165.1 (55) | 27.1 (69) | 195.5 (28) | 105.2 (20) | 16.88 (17) |
| Most similar | Texas State | Troy | Texas State | Troy | Georgia State | JMU |
| Edge | 🚫 | 🚫 | 🚫 | 🚫 | Troy | Troy |
Troy stacks up or outperforms South in four of the six categories, coming short in just Scoring Offense and Passing Offense (by only nine yards).
Thankfully Troy has faced an arguably superior offense, and shut them down just last week: Texas State. Even though the Bobcats trail in passing offense by roughly three yards, T.J. Finley outperforms Carter Bradley in both passing efficiency and yards per game.
Even Ismail Mahdi, Texas State’s back, outperforms La’Damian Webb, and sometimes Kimani Vidal too. But this team has shifted to a pass-heavy offense.
The first four games, South averaged 214.25 passing yards each game. The last four, that jumped to 356.75.
The key is that against ULM and USM (wins, 55-3 and 55-7) South ran the ball more than 40 times. Against JMU and Louisiana (losses, 23-31 and 20-33) that dropped to fewer than 30.
Much like Troy, running the ball is the key to this offense. Much like Texas State, if Troy can force South to pass, it will suffocate the offense.
Bradley threw two interceptions each against JMU, Tulane and Louisiana, so Troy should follow suit there. The Troy defensive line has to get pressure on him… and luckily it has more sacks than anyone else on the list except Texas State.
That’s going to be a similar strategy on the other side of the ball.
The team in Mobile has the strongest Pass Defense in the Sun Belt, No. 8 in the Group of Five and No. 22 in the country. Only Troy’s pass defense stacks up.
Central Michigan threw the ball 20 times against South, the most of any FBS opponent. Southeast Louisiana threw it 25 times and lost 35-17.
Those are the two highest pass attempt totals, so the question is—is South good because they shut down the pass, or are offenses just having success running the ball?
The Chips also ran the ball 38 times against South, and won by four. Tulane ran the ball 38 times and won by 20. James Madison and Louisiana ran the ball more than 40 times and won (I gave you those scores earlier).
Again, those are the four highest rush attempt totals. There’s no correlation in the rushing yardage, though; winning teams all picked up 100+ yards, but so did ULM and USM.
Clearly it doesn’t matter how successful the run game is, keeping it on the ground and not turning the ball over wins against South. Sound familiar?
That second part is important. Tulane, JMU and Louisiana all won the turnover battle. Neither team turned it over in the Central Michigan game, and only JMU threw a pick.
Troy is good for at least one pick and one fumble lost per game. As long as the defense forces that many turnovers, that shouldn’t be a problem.
I was truly baffled by how they have four losses though. The Tulane and James Madison games make sense, but Louisiana and Central Michigan had me stumped.
Statistically, no trend stands out except the turnover battle and failing to convert on fourth down. South is 3-for-10 on fourth down in its losses and 6/6 in its wins.
Then I looked at the red zone attempts. South got into the opponents’ red zone 19 times across its four wins, and just 11 (roughly three times per game) in its four losses.
That’s a small number, but that’s literally two whole possessions and scores. Louisiana was the first team to prevent South from scoring in the red zone score, too.
So how does Troy compare? It’s actually better than the Cajuns.
| Team | Red Zone Off (Rank) | Red Zone Def (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| 🚫 | .933 (15) | .773 (34) |
| Troy | .967 (2) | .783 (36) |
| Louisiana | — | .788 (39) |
These are razor-thin margins.
It’s going to be a tough, defensive game.
Troy has to play its best football.
So does South.
But I think Troy is just a little bit stronger.
Troy wins, 24-17.
Again, special thanks to the guys at JagNation Radio.