The Other Side of the Wall: Texas State
Troy is going to San Marcos, a place it hasn’t lost since 1997, but maybe it’s time to throw tradition out.
Texas State is 5-2, the most wins in a single season since 2014, the last year it was bowl eligible. The Bobcats are on their best start since 2011, the year they began their FBS transition, and one game from ensuring their first bowl appearance.
The Bobcats are No. 8 in Total Offense nationally, 11th in scoring offense, 15th in rushing offense and 14th in kick returns. It’s effectively an unstoppable force and the Immovable Trojan Death Object.
The experts still favor Troy.
| Team | Texas State |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 6 pm, ESPN+ |
| Current Record | 5-2 |
| Troy’s Record | 11-1 |
| Last Matchup | W, 17-14 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 5th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 96 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 66.8% |
| Spread | Troy -4.5 |
That’s a lot of hope for Troy, and it honestly has me worried. But how do Texas State fans feel? I reached out to Keff Ciardello at Win Now or Get Bent.
What does the warning label for this team say?
WARNING: Your vision may seem impaired, but this is actually Texas State.
I gotta get new glasses.
What Taylor Swift song title best describes the Bobcats’ expectations? Why?
Admittedly, I’m not much of a Swiftie so my knowledge here is pretty mainstream. That said: Shake It Off seems fitting. Texas State is at five wins after eight consecutive seasons with no more than four wins. Joined FBS in 2012 and have yet to reach a bowl. New school president, new head coach and 71 new players has the Bobcats looking to shake off the past.
You could say they’re entering a new Era. I’ll see myself out.
In one word, describe the Baylor win. Why that word?
Necessary. This program – fans, especially – needed immediate proof of concept to buy in. Too many other coaches have come in here saying “It’s going to take time … This is Year 0… Trust the process.” It was falling on deaf ears. People were growing more and more apathetic. Beating Baylor in Waco to open the season invigorated this place. All the offseason talk wasn’t just talk, for once.
Actions definitely speak louder than words, and that was a shout heard around the Belt.
In one word, describe the Louisiana loss. Why that word?
Humbling. This team is close. Not there yet, but real close. They still haven’t beaten regional foe UTSA (0-5 since 2012) or Louisiana (0-11 since 2013). There are still some hills to climb for this program – including Troy, 0-8 since joining the Sun Belt – but I can’t deny it’s headed in the right direction.
So you still have to trust the process, because it is a process. But things are moving very quickly.
Which Avenger is most like Coach Kinne?
Quicksilver. You didn’t ask for an explanation, but it’s simple: Kinne likes to go fast.
Case in point.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
DE Jordan Revels – Senior team captain. Missed four games but played against ULM and isn’t on a snap count anymore.
LB Brian Holloway – Another team captain. Best tackler on the team. Nose for the ball.
CB Josh Eaton – Oklahoma transfer. Back from injury. Feisty player. Talks a lot of trash. Leads the team in PBU’s.
The Bobcats are also No. 3 in the country in Team Tackles for loss and No. 9 in Fumbles Recovered. This front seven is going to be fierce.
When Texas State snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
They’ll look to get it out quick and in space or run it off tackle.
More on that in a moment.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
Lots of scoring. A shootout would favor the Bobcats. Long drives on offense from the Trojans would stop any momentum this team needs to thrive.
Troy can be explosive, but it’s strung together long drives too. Depends on how successful this run game is.
What chicken joint is most associated with the team, college, fanbase or city? If not chicken, BBQ?
I’m a Chicken Express man myself, but there’s plenty of love for Raising Canes around here. Honorable mention to Zaxby’s.
Listen, any place that serves fried okra has my vote.
What’s one question you have for us about Troy, if you have one (we’ll answer in the article)?
If you could trade places with one person for one day, who would it be and why?
If you’re referring to Thomas Gleaton trading places with an individual, it would have to be Keith Gill so I could get the conference title game moved to the Superdome. It’s not important, but it would be a fun change from on-campus games. I’d also like to experience a day in his life anyway.
If you’re looking for a more Troy-related approach, it might be Carter Bradley on November 2. I would absolutely sabotage that team in Mobile, even if it wasn’t such an important game.
I’m just going to say it. This may be the best, most well-rounded offense Troy has faced all year. On top of the previous stats, the passing game is No. 30 nationally.
The Cats are very balanced too, with a slight edge to running the ball. Star back Ismail Mahdi is No. 15 in the country in rushing yards (just like the entire offense) and No. 3 in the conference behind Kimani and Georgia State’s Marcus Carroll.
Donerio Davenport and Jahmyl Jeter round out the rushing corps, presumably as short-yard guys. They both have a long of 22.
TJ Finley has 37 carries on his own, but with his lost yardage is nearly identical to the number of sack yards and his longest run is 17 yards. I wouldn’t call him a dual-threat, but he can read the front seven and pick up yards when he needs to.
The run game is efficient, and it seems to be the key to Texas State’s success. The good news is Texas State hasn’t seen a defense like Troy’s.
| Team | Rush Def | Rank | TXST Rush Yds. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 199.1 | 122 | 143 | W, 42-31 |
| UTSA | 130.0 | 51 | 31 | L, 13-20 |
| Nevada | 189.9 | 115 | 276 | W, 35-24 |
| Southern Miss | 202.3 | 124 | 178* | W, 50-36 |
| Louisiana | 150.0 | 76 | 204* | L, 30-34 |
| ULM | 179.9 | 111 | 230 | W, 21-20 |
| Troy | 97.3 | 15 | TBD | TBD |
There’s a clear correlation between the strength of the opposing team’s run defense and Texas State’s losses. UTSA shut the whole offense down and Louisiana forced them to pass.
That’s what Troy is good at.
But that’s not to discredit Texas State’s passing game though. TJ Finley is No. 17 in the country in pass efficiency and No. 38 in Yards Per Completion with 12.69.
The two quarterbacks closest to him on those lists: Darren Grainger and Carter Bradley. As excited as that first name makes me, the offense as a whole is closer to that team in Mobile.
Consider this a test run for that game.
The next question is, how does this Bobcats defense stack up?
| Team | Rush Def | Rank | Pass Def | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 108.9 | 23 | 254.3 | 111 |
| JMU | 36.1 | N/A (1) | 290.6 | N/A (126) |
| WKU | 218.6 | 127 | 248.5 | 103 |
| Georgia State | 118.9* | 34 | 275.4 | 120 |
| Arkansas State | 191.9 | 116 | 264.6 | 118 |
| Army | 179.3 | 110 | 202.3 | 39 |
| Texas State | 161.6 | 94 | 248.0 | 102 |
The answer is a lot better than you’d expect. The Cats are basically the same as Western Kentucky when it comes to pass protection, and even though it’s the best run defense Troy has seen in nearly a month, the defense in question was Georgia State.
Texas State has a pick every other game, and at least one forced fumble every game, which lines up with Troy’s turnover tendencies. Interestingly, that goes nearly the same way for Troy, except Army coughed up four of the season’s seven fumbles.
The Trojan offensive line hasn’t given up a single sack in the last three games, but State has 20 this season, rounding out to 3 a game (though no more than two in the last four weeks). That pressure may make up for its lackluster pass defense.
On the other side, Troy has taken the quarterback down 11 times in the last two games, 18 times total. Texas State has given up 14 sporadically (two here, three there, two there), so Troy should pick up a few more Saturday.
All this points to a fight in the trenches, and while Troy’s defense should win, the offense has to at least keep themselves on the field.
While I don’t expect Troy to keep up its under-10-point streak, Kansas State is the last team to score more than 24 points on Troy. If it’s going to happen, this is the offense to break through or get close.
I just like Troy’s run defense against Texas State’s run game.
And Troy’s pass defense against Texas State’s pass game.
And Troy’s pass game against Texas State’s pass defense.
Troy wins, 24-13.