The Other Side of the Wall: The BYU Preview
BYU Cougars Quick Facts
- 2019 Record: 7-6
- Conference: Independent (since 2011)
- Head coach: Kalani Sitake (5th season, 28-25)
- First ever meeting
- Location: Provo, UT
- TV: ESPN
- Time: 9:15 pm
BYU’s Offense
Players to Watch:
- QB Zach WIlson
- RB Lopini Katoa
- RB Sione Finau
- RB Tyler Algeier
- WR Gunner Romney
- WR Dax Milne
- WR Neil Pau’u
So before I get any further, I’m going to throw out the Navy stats, except for the purpose of identifying players.
The Cougars didn’t lose much at all, except in the receiving corps. They’re returning nine starters on offense, but they lost ten wideouts, half of which were upperclassmen.
Stepping in to fill the void are Neil Pau’u, Gunner Romney and Dax Milne, who combined for more than 200 yards last week.
The biggest piece is back—Zach Wilson under center. The Cougars are still waiting for Sione Finau to return from a torn ACL last year, but Lopini Katoa and Tyler Algeier will both step in to split the rushing load.
Against Navy, the Cougars only threw the ball 22 times (compared with 36 attempts per game last year) but whether that was because they lost strength in the corps or whether they stuck to the run game remains to be seen.
Last year, BYU ranked 26th in passing offense and 68th in rushing offense. We’re looking at a power-oriented clone of Troy’s offense, which really shouldn’t surprise anyone.
On paper, BYU was very middle of the road, more consistent than Troy but less explosive. I expect them to pound the ball all game, or at least try.
The Trojan defense seems to have improved, if at least in experience. If we’re throwing out Navy, it’s only fair that I throw out Middle Tennessee.
Doing both creates a lot of variables.
Watching this defense go after the ground attack is going to be fun.
The Cougar Defense
Players to Watch:
- DE Zach Dawe
- DT Khyiris Tonga
- LB Isaiah Kaufusi
- LB Peyton Wilgar
- LB Keenan Pili
- DB Kavika Fonua
- DB Chaz Ah You
- DT Atunaisa Mahe?
Last year this team looked a lot like the other teams Troy faced—Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss—and Troy had no problem scoring, no matter how good the defense was.
The problem is BYU returns a lot of players on defense as well.
Chaz Ah You is a weapon in the backfield, leading the team in tackles for loss last year. His teammate in the secondary Kavika Fonua led the team in total tackles, and he’s the leading returner in unassisted tackles.
Update: Ah You suffered an apparent injury, making him “likely unavailable” for Saturday’s game.
Fonua starts at the nickel position, so if you see him in the box, bring an extra blocker or throw it.
Peyton Wilgar led the team in picks last year, followed by Fonua and Isaiah Kaufusi, who’s the number two to Fonua in nearly every category.
Zach Dawe and Khyiris Tonga anchor this impressive defensive line, but the real star is Atunaisa Mahe, the team’s leading returner in sacks. He wasn’t listed on the depth chart for this week or the participation report for last week, so I assume he’s out with an injury.
Regardless, Troy will need to rely on its speed and passing attack to overpower this defense—which is the Trojans’ MO.
Breakdown
No matter how you line it up, Troy and BYU look a lot alike on paper, which is concerning given last year’s outcomes.
The sheer lack of data makes this game an absolute nightmare to project, but it should make for an entertaining first half.
If Troy’s defense has truly progressed, we’ll see a shootout similar to the three heartbreaking games Troy lost last year. The difference will be if that defense got better, Troy should be able to close this one out.
A loss wouldn’t be a complete devastation though. A huge loss could be.
That’s my real concern. I don’t think BYU is good enough to wipe the floor with Troy, but the Cougars’ power offense could wear the Trojans down over time.
We saw what happened to Tulane—and that’s the team that got blown out by BYU.
The only hope is that BYU is overlooking this game. Because they’re off a bye week, I’m afraid that won’t be the case.
Plus, Troy isn’t used to playing in an empty stadium or this late at night. The Cougars dominated the last time they did both.
I’m sorry I don’t have as much data for this one. Both teams looked really good against really bad opponents; in theory this should be a close game.
Conclusion
Troy should keep it competitive based on offense alone, and I’m expecting them to cover (line is +14 at press time).
I don’t expect a win for many reasons, but it’s not out of the question.
Prediction: 41-35 BYU