The Other Side of the Wall: The Georgia State Preview
This week I’ve brought in PantherTalk.com and fellow Trojan Wall editor Scott Watkins to give us a more in-depth breakdown for this week’s game. You can find his thoughts after my overall breakdown.
Georgia State Panthers Quick Facts
- 2018 Record: 2-10
- Conference: Sun Belt (since 2013)
- Head coach: Shawn Elliott (3rd season, 14-17)
- 1-5 record against Troy all-time
- Last meeting: 2018, Troy W 37-20
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Georgia State’s Offense
Players to Watch:
- QB Dan Ellington
- RB Tra Barnett
- RB Seth Paige
- RB Destin Coates
Here’s the deal: This offense is full of balance. For every role it seems there’s a duality.
Dan Ellington is right behind or just ahead of Kaleb Barker in every meaningful pass statistic. He’s that good of a passer.
He’s also the No. 9 rusher in the conference, behind D.K. Billingsley and ahead of Louisiana’s Raymond Calais. He’s absolutely a dual threat.
Now let’s look at the rest of that backfield. Speaking of Louisiana, the Panthers have a four-headed rushing attack of their own, led by Ellington and Tra Barnett.
By the way, Barnett is the No. 2 running back in the conference in rushing yards, No. 21. The only two backs ahead of him in yards per game are ULM’s Josh Johnson (No. 9 in the country in rushing yards) and App State’s Darrynton Evans (No. 25.)
Then there’s the other two: Seth Paige and Destin Coates. They add another 498 rushing yards together, completing an absolutely stellar rushing attack—one that should make Statesboro and Lafayette jealous.
All that is to say this offense is the biggest challenge to Troy’s strength yet. The one saving grace on defense both this year and in the Neal Brown era has been the run game.
We’ll see if it lives up to the hype.
The Wide Receivers:
- Cornelius McCoy
- Sam Pinckney
Oh yeah, Dan Ellington has 1,582 passing yards. More than half of those have gone to one of these two targets, and the two literally account for half of his completions. They are without a doubt the yin to the run game’s yang, and they may as well be twins themselves.
Cornelius McCoy has the lead in yardage (450 to 389), but Sam Pickney has the lead in scores (5 TDs versus 4.)
One has a longest catch of 44 yards, the other has a long of 43 yards. One has a higher yards per catch, the other leads the team in yards per game. You see where I’m going with this?
Losing Penny Hart was the best thing to happen to this offense. Georgia State is as balanced as it gets, and effective too.
The Panther Defense
Players to Watch:
- LB Trajan Stephens-McQueen
- LB Ed Curney (Injured)
- NG Dontae Wilson
- S Remy Lazarus
- DE Hardrick Willis
- LB Victor Heyward
When I found Carlton Martial on the national “Total Tackles” stat page (he’s 19th), the name listed directly above him was Trajan Stephens-McQueen (he’s tied for 15th). For some reason the Sun Belt deducted three tackles on their stat page, but he leads the conference as well as this Panther front seven.
He also has two interceptions this season.
The linebacker position is a strength for Georgia State, too. Victor Heyward is tied for the top spot on the team in QB hurries, and Ed Curney leads the team in tackles for loss. Unfortunately, Curney announced this week he tore his ACL and will be out for the rest of the season.
Right behind him in TFLs are Hardrick Willis and Dontae Wilson. These guys also lead the team in forced fumbles together. Look for them to anchor the pass rush.
Finally, Remy Lazarus is the star of this secondary. He leads the team in breakups and deflections, and is tied for the longest interception return in the conference.
The Panther defense is a lot like the offense in that it’s balanced. The similarities continue onto the stat sheet: Georgia State has given up one more passing yard than it’s thrown, and it’s allowed two more rushing touchdowns than it’s scored.
This defense is also run-heavy.
GSU has held its opponents to just 1,477 rushing yards—just under 200 less than it’s rushed for. If you take out the 450-yard game against Western Michigan that works out to allowing 171.2 yards per game.
Luckily for Troy, this offense is pass-heavy. DK is going to need 100 yards for Troy to win, but the passing game should have no problem provided Barker doesn’t give it away.
Breakdown
My biggest takeaway is how close the Panthers have come to losing this year. Follow me here.
The average number of points scored in a Panthers game this season is 34.4 for GSU and 35.1 for opponents. Basically, it’s a 35-34 average score.
If you take out the highest score for either team (52 points in the win over Arkansas State, Western Michigan’s 57 points) the average score is 31.5-31.5.
Remember how I said everything on this team is balanced? The difference between GSU and Troy comes in finding a way to win.
The Panthers are 4-1 in games decided by 10 points or less. Troy is a handful of plays away from being 5-1. State is a few plays away from being 1-6.
The difference is that balance. It allows Georgia State to experiment with its offense, throwing off defenses expecting to shut them down.
Don’t just take my word for it though; listen to someone more in tune with the Panthers.
Scott’s Breakdown
Here’s the thing about Georgia State’s offense, it does whatever the hell it wants. It generally conforms its plan of attack around the weaknesses the coaches find in the opposing defense and then hammers into them for four quarters. Oddly enough, the only team that has been able to stop them was Western Michigan.
The Panthers have the ability to play any tendency and use any mix of personnel they so desire for an entire game successfully, even if the unit did the complete opposite of that style the game before.
For instance, we may see Ellington throw the ball 41 times for nearly 400 yards (vs Arkansas State) or run the football nearly as much as he throws it (19 carries, 24 pass attempts vs Coastal Carolina).
We might see one running back carry the load, such as Barnett picking up 108 of 112 running back rushing yards. It could also be three different running backs getting a mix of carries, such as when Barnett, Paige and Coates all gained at least 66 rushing yards against Arkansas State.
This game won’t just be a test for Troy’s defensive personnel, but more for a coaching staff that will need to adjust to whatever Georgia State decides to do on offense. That has proved a daunting task for other coaching staffs, though.
Now back to Thomas…
Conclusion
I’ve said before that Troy is 0-2 in shootouts. If the defense has truly found itself, this could be the one game where the Trojans really break through in the conference.
Until then, Troy is going to keep sliding backwards.
Prediction: 42-38 Georgia State