The Other Side of the Wall: ULM
Two games remain on Troy’s schedule. On paper, Troy should win them easily, clinching the division, but we know exactly what Coach Sumrall thinks.
Up until this point, and as evidenced by the slim margins of victory, every opponent had their own strengths. None of them could be overlooked.
Unfortunately, ULM is another one of those teams.
| Team | ULM |
|---|---|
| Time, Network | 2:30 pm, ESPN+ |
| 2022 Record | 4-6. 3-3 |
| Best Win | Georgia State, 31-28 |
| Worst Loss | Bama, 63-7 |
| Troy’s Record | 10-8-1 |
| Last Matchup | L, 16-29 |
| Preseason Conf. Rank | 7th SBC West |
| FPI Rank | 116 |
| FPI Win% (Troy) | 86.6% |
| Spread | -15.5 |
This is the biggest spread Troy has had in its favor since Texas State, and that should send off red flags. Both teams are in a similar position, more than likely missing a bowl game.
The difference?
The Warhawks have played its conference opponents close… and in some cases they actually won.
| Team | SBC Rank | Score | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | 5th West | W, 21-17 | +4 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1st East | L, 21-28 | -7 |
| South Alabama | 2nd West | L, 34-41 | -7 |
| Texas State | Last West | W, 31-30 | +1 |
| Georgia State | T-3rd East | W, 31-28 | +3 |
Clearly this team steps up to its competition (with one exception). The question is, how?
Let’s do the national ranking comparison.
| Troy | ULM | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Offense | 24 | 84 | +60 |
| Rushing Offense | 122 | 99 | -23 |
| Scoring Offense | 110 | 92 | -18 |
| Total Offense | 81 | 101 | +20 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 34 | 99 | +65 |
| Rushing Defense | 40 | 104 | +64 |
| Scoring Defense | 9 | 122 | +113 |
| Total Defense | 25 | 110 | +85 |
| Turnover Margin | 77 | 110 | +33 |
Umm. That doesn’t help.
There is nothing notable about this team in the slightest. The passing offense is its best feature, and that’s still No. 84 in the country.
The defense all ranks in the 100s and the total offense does too.
Okay, what were the final stats for the games I used above? Let’s throw in Nicholls, Arkansas State and Army too.
| Team | Score | ULM Passing Yards | Yards/Pass | Turnover Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholls | W, 35-7 | 257 | 9.52 | +1 |
| Louisiana | W, 21-17 | 192 | 7.38 | 0 |
| Arkansas State | L, 28-45 | 138 | 6.90 | -1 |
| Coastal Carolina | L, 21-28 | 279 | 9.0 | -2 |
| South Alabama | L, 34-41 | 371 | 13.74 | -1 |
| Army | L, 24-48 | 164 | 5.86 | -1 |
| Texas State | W, 31-30 | 313 | 7.63 | -4 |
| Georgia State | W, 31-28 | 225 | 7.76 | +1 |
So clearly ULM loves to pass the ball, and that’s been keeping the Warhawks in games. Not just passing, mind you, but using pass plays to get significant yardage.
So what are they doing? Getting the ball to playmakers.
Tyrone Howell, a JUCO transfer by way of Kansas State is No. 40 in the country in Yards Per Reception at 17.22.
That stat exists mostly because he went off against South Alabama (9 catches, 244 yards, 3 TDs, like WHAT), but he’s not the only one on the national rankings list.
Jevin Frett is another JUCO product, and he’s No. 166 in the country in Yards per catch… with 13.69.
That’s two wideouts guaranteeing you a first down if you let them get past you.
Look for Troy to play the same soft coverage they’ve used most of the year. Prevent the big plays, much like it did against Western Kentucky.
Also look at the turnover margin. That’s such an important metric. I say it every week, but winning the turnover battle wins games.
It very nearly cost ULM the Texas State game.
Troy’s offense has stepped up in the second half each game, but this is the Trojans’ best opportunity to get points early and produce the whole game.
I know I said that against Army last week, but this ULM defense may literally be the worst Troy has seen since Alabama A&M.
As we all know, stats only paint a certain picture.
To learn more about ULM, we reached out to Dusty at Warhawk Report. Here’s what he had to say.
Describe ULM like you would a dog that’s up for adoption.
Free to a good home, please….if not they will put him down and out of his misery. It really feels like a please… just either win so I can die a happy man or put me out of my misery. It’s a consistent, in-consistent season for the Warhawks. We get shined up and ready for action, but then take the lumps in hopes of this being the year we get adopted…or in this case over .500 and in the post-season.
It’s clear you’re not the only team in that situation in the West. Texas State has its troubles too.
What movie title best describes the Warhawks’ expectations at this point in the season?
Gone in 60 Seconds. It’s been a rollercoaster once again this season with high hopes and the hopes this was the year, but from the blocked punt to open the season; it’s been rolling down hill. Then Bowden pieces together a string of back-to-back wins and there’s high hope again.
I dig it. Terry Bowden would totally drive a 1967 Shelby Mustang, too.
In one word, describe the Georgia State win. Why that word?
Eh…after 40+ years of following the Indians/Warhawks, one thing you learn is that nothing surprises you, and always expect the unexpected, and this week was no different. The defense was scorched just 2 weeks ago versus Army, and then picks up a pair of defensive scores in Atlanta.
This is the very reason Troy shouldn’t overlook the Warhawks. Anything can happen.
In one word, describe the Coastal Carolina loss. Why that word?
Eh…part II. Once again, the Warhawks are right there in contention to pull off the big upset over the Sun Belt darling Chants…but come up just short. It stings to know that you played that great of a performance in all three phases of the game but still not enough to get that one extra play to get over the hump.
It seems ULM has plenty of those games this season.
Which Hogwarts house is Coach Bowden in?
No idea, never seen or read the Harry Potter novels. I think ULM and the Sun Belt as a whole should be thrilled to have a true legend of the college football game in the league. Bowden has done some amazing things in his year and a half at the helm of the Warhawk program, a program he’s having to not only leave his mark on, but build the program up to have a place to leave this mark.
I like to think he’s a Hufflepuff.
What are three names on defense Troy fans should pay attention to? Why?
- Quave Drake, 2 defensive TDs last week in the win at Georgia State; what will he do next?
- Zach Woodard – leads the team with 40 solo/ 60 total tackles.
- Tristan Driggers – kicked off the season with three straight games with interceptions, and hasn’t gotten one since, but the ball-hawking skills are there to make him a big play maker. Yeah, I’m writing down Driggers’ name.
When ULM snaps the ball, what is most likely to happen?
Chandler Rogers is no doubt the general of the offense. How good, or off he plays dictates how the Warhawks performance is on the day. (See above.) The key to having success on Saturday is if the running game can get going. Andrew Henry and Malik Jackson are the guys with the spotlight on them for this task. The offensive line has been more hit than miss, as the season’s progressed and will be the other key to the running game success.
I gotta say, the run game has not seemed to be the central focus of the offense. Then again, that’s the case for Troy. Maybe it’s a similar situation where the run game sets up the passing game.
If we wake up Sunday and the underdog wins, what happened the day before?
ULM enters just over 2 TDs (15 point) dogs. A win there gets them to 5 wins on the season and sets up the finale to be an exciting one in Malone Stadium vs. Southern Miss.
No doubt the Warhawks are hoping this is the game to get them over the hump. That team in Mobile is cheering for you too.
What do fans expect the Warhawks to be doing in December?
Freezing cold…that is the blistery 40-50 degree Monroe weather sees Bowden and company still on the practice fields, putting the finishing touches on a game plan for their second ever bowl game.
They’re an optimistic bunch. I like ’em.
What’s the best place to get BBQ in town (even if Troy is at home)?
In Monroe, Dankin Trail. The beef po-boy with the gravy is amazing and can get it upgraded to brisket for an even better experience.
Menu time. I’m definitely trying that next time I’m in town.
Is ULM a Coke or Pepsi school?
Coke – The Biedenharn family hails from Monroe. Their contribution is Ouachita (pronounced Wash-A-taw) Bottlers was the first place to mass produce and bottle Coke.
Very cool! Troy is 0-1 against Pepsi schools and 8-1 against Coke schools.
I’ve learned my lesson. This Troy team is a “drag you down to my level and beat you” team, and I love it.
This shouldn’t be another comeback win though. ULM doesn’t have a gimmick like Army, or a sneaky good offense like Louisiana.
Troy scored 23 on Louisiana because it kicked an insurance field goal. It dropped 27 on Southern Miss because they dropped the ball.
This is a game where Troy should be able to create a more comfortable lead.
Then again, when has this team ever been comfortable? Adversity is where it thrives.
Final prediction: 24-7 Troy.
Again, special thanks to Dusty. You can follow Warhawk Report on Twitter here.