The Top 5 Rushing Attacks Troy Will Face This Season
Well, we’d meant to do this a little sooner, but you’ll be shocked to know that Campbell wasn’t going to make this list anyway, so we’re still in the clear.
I thought that, like any true scientist, I would start such a ranking with maths and then work outward. The questions to answer:
- How did each of the Trojans’ opponents perform running the ball last season (Rushing S&P+)?
- How much offensive talent do they return this season (returning production rank)?
- How did week one’s results tweak the perception of this information?
The top four are clear, but their order is not. Slot number five took a bit more digging but eventually shook itself out. The results are as follows.
#1a Appalachian State – November 29th
The Mountaineers were the surprise on this list for me. They were second among Troy’s opponents and eighth nationally in returning production. They lose their second all-time leading rusher in Jalin Moore, but he also only played five games last season and everyone who took his place is back.
The unknowns in this situation come from several places. First, the Mountaineers have a new coach, and while they have the talent to minimize any big drop-off the new guy is a more pass-oriented coordinator. It’s too soon to tell how that will play out in run/pass effectiveness, nor how that will look by the time the Trojans play them in the season finale.
#1b @ Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – November 23rd
The Cajuns finished the 2018 season with the best rushing attack of Troy’s 2019 opponents. Their overall score was only third behind App State and Georgia State, but that’s because their returning production score was low.
The Cajuns lost receiving depth, though, and return their top three running backs and the QB who was the better runner out of the two-man time-share from last season. Trey Ragas, Raymond Calais, and Elijah Mitchell would all start for just about any Sun Belt team.
I watched this offense in person against Mississippi State and Calais, Mitchell, and Ragas combined for 173 rushing yards, something they’ll easily replicate and surpass against most Sun Belt defenses.
#3 @ Georgia State – October 26th
The Panthers were an above-average rushing team last season, and they return almost all of that production. The proof is arguably in the pudding for an offense that just racked up 213 rushing yards against Tennessee, which is an SEC team regardless of their overall success or failure this season.
GSU gets dinged because they have essentially no depth, and an injury to Barnett would hurt this offense, while an injury to Ellington would cripple it completely. Their win over Tennessee was impressive, and they’re certainly capable of producing. I just can’t rank too highly an offense that is this low on depth and this far out on the calendar.
#4 Georgia Southern -November 9th
Mathematically the Eagles are neck-and-neck with the Cajuns when it comes to their overall average returning production from a successful rush offense in 2018. Also, turnover matters a little bit less when you run the triple option and use multiple backs all the time.
That said, the Eagles return their starting QB but lose their top three tailbacks. Returnees Logan Wright and Matt LaRoche are sophomores who were 4th and 5th on the depth chart last year and only had 73 carries all season.
The results from the shellacking by LSU are largely meaningless, but I’ll need to see more for them to be any better than just inside the top five.
#5 @ Missouri – October 5th
The Tigers were a very good rushing offense last season, almost as good as the Cajuns. Their overall offensive production ranking is low in terms or returnees, but that’s largely due to the departure of their #1 WR and quarterback Drew Lock.
Mizzou still returns their #1 and #3 running backs from last season, and while Kelly Bryant looked awfully confused in his first outing, he is most certainly a better runner than Lock was and occasionally did good things with that Clemson squad.
Just missed the mark – Coastal Carolina is very similar to Georgia State, except that they didn’t rush quite as well last season, have next to no experience at quarterback and lose three of their top five rushers…Southern Miss and Texas State both return a ton of production, but both stunk at running the ball and both only return one rusher who saw meaningful time last year.
Scoring: I recorded each team’s rank out of 130 for both Rushing S&P+ and returning production on offense. I then divided that by average (65) to get a score between 0.02 and 2.0, then combined the numbers. Scores, therefore, range from 0.04 to 4.0; here’s the raw data, ranked.
- App 0.94
- GaSt 1.2
- ULL 1.3
- GaSo 1.32
- CCU 1.8
- Mizzou 1.85
- Southern Miss 1.87
- Texas State 1.94
- Ark St 2.5
- Akron 2.83
- USA 3.66