Troy at South Alabama, Battle for the Belt Preview
Troy at South Alabama
Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile
Time: 7:00 pm CT
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Troy -12.5
It almost feels like it’s week two again. Troy is coming off of a surprising loss in its quarterback’s first career start. Questions abound as to where the Trojans are with their offense and if they’ll continue to contend within the vaunted East division.
The good news is that Troy has been here before. Not only has Neal Brown’s squad been here as recently as September but were in a similar spot nearly exactly 365 days ago.
In 2017, Troy took a shocking stumble against South Alabama and lost its star running back in Jordan Chunn in the process. The response: A 34-10 win over Georgia State and the subsequent shellacking of nearly every team the Trojans came across the rest of the way.
Troy does well when it loses. In fact, the Trojans are 6-0 since 2016 when coming off of a loss. In those six games, Troy has only given up 14.2 points per game. On the flip side, in the same span, South Alabama is 2-9 when coming off of a win.
Another trend fairly pertinent to this game is the fact that the visiting team has won four of six games and each of the last three.
It’s not that fact, though, that equates to a Troy win over the Jags. It’s the group of Trojans that will be lining up opposite of South Alabama quarterback Evan Orth.
The Troy defense has given up just 22.7 points per game in conference play thus far. The Trojans are tied for 13th nationally with 3.14 sacks per game and are 10th in tackles for loss a game with 8.29.
Disruption and havoc have been the calling cards of defensive coordinator Vic Koenning’s Troy defense.
Orth has had a solid year for the Jags ever since he became the full time starter. Against two of the stingiest defenses the Sun Belt has to offer, though, he failed to make a real impact.
The Jags had the pleasure of playing Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in back-to-back weeks recently. While Orth completed 61.9 percent of his throws between the two games, he tossed two interceptions to zero touchdowns and South scored 20 points total.
The Mountaineers registered eight tackles for loss while Georgia Southern forced four turnovers. Disruption wins games (against South).
Offensively, there’s no real point in speculating on how well it’ll perform. The playcalling will be more sound now that the coaching staff has a full Sawyer Smith game on film.
I’d expect a heavy dose of BJ Smith and a focus on perimeter play. Get (Sawyer) Smith comfortable and then see what he can do downfield. Having a defense like Troy’s is a major confidence boost and should have Smith and Co. looking to avenge their Liberty performance.
Prediction
The old rivalry adage of “These two teams always play each other close” rings true in this series. Each team has three wins while Troy is 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings. I think the offense takes a step forward but South keeps things interesting in what could be a rainy, miserable day in Mobile. 27-17, Troy